Goes up quickly, yeah?! Congrats to you too!! Hope to see more folks in DC and nearby areas!
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Goes up quickly, yeah?! Congrats to you too!! Hope to see more folks in DC and nearby areas!
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Sheesh. Tesla is going to have a heck of a time catching up with this backlog. And we still have at least 8 more months to go...
DIL
Member
1061 reservations for model X in China on April 25 and 1133 on April 29. 72 in about 3-4 days or 18-24/day. I don't mean to make the statistical mistake similar to extrapolating home runs from the first week of the baseball season, but imagine a Model X reservation number that starts at 15,000 and increases by 40-50/day (25 N. America and Europe and 25 China and rest of the world) for 8 months until the first of the year. Ringing in the new year with 25,000 reservations + for Model X would be worth a bit of extra bubbly. I will update the tally.
It is entirely possible that the X will outsell the model S as soon as they get the line capable of producing the cars in volume. Just look at all the gasoline powered SUV's that outsell gasoline powered sedans.
The best selling "car" in USA is the F-150 pickup.
The best selling "car" in USA is the F-150 pickup.
I agree that it is possible for the X to outsell the S in the North American market if they can build enough of them to meet demand. But at the rate the X reservation list is growing it could be a few years before X production will catch up to demand!
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
#1,2 & 3 are pickups: F150, Silverado, Ram P/U
Then you have a bunch of sedans: Camry, Altima, Accord, Corolla/Matrix, Fusion, Civic...
The first actual big SUV is on #13 - Chevy Equinox (and even that is not considered full size SUV)
So you'll need to look down to #19 - Ford Explorer
I don't see data here that says that the Model X is likely to outsell the Model S in the US.
(all data from April 2014 U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 255 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR - careful, the Tesla number in there are almost certainly incorrect)
Don't forget you are looking at the wrong demographic. This is the luxury segment, which cannot be compared to overall sales.
Ask Porsche, BMW, Mercedes, etc. what adding an SUV did to their sales numbers. I believe the Cayenne outsold all other Porsche vehicles combined for the first few years. The only companies who have stated that they will never build an SUV are Ferrari and McLaren.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
OK, let's take a look (same source as before, Jan-Apr 2014 numbers):
BMW:
3 series: 34,199
5 series: 14,925
X5: 14,153
X3: 13,974
Mercedes:
C Class: 22,143
E Class: 21,928
M Class:13,965
GLK: 11,415
CLA: 7,704
GL: 7,671
S Class: 7,278
I don't really see the SUVs outperforming their brethren.
Oh, wait. I forgot Porsche.
Yes, Cayenne is the best selling model. It's also the cheapest. Cheaper even then a Boxter. That may not be the ideal data to compare with (and oh by the way, Porsche still sells more of the far more expensive non-SUVs combined than it sells SUVs)
Are you really comparing a Model S to a 3 series? We're talking 5/7 series/ S Class to X3/5 and ML/GL numbers. That's the demographic.
I'd be quite curious to see the comparison for the years the SUVs were initially introduced.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
The Rav4 as comparison for the Model X? Umm. OK? The Rav4 has a curb weight of 3500lbs. The Murano 3800lbs. The Model X will be north of 5000lbs. Which is right around what the Explorer weighs.
Still the Rav 4 (#15) outsold by the similarly priced sedans. The Murano is at #98, well outsold by most any other Nissan.
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You are right. It's much easier to argue with no numbers and really strong gut feel.
I am comparing cars and SUVs with similar price ratios (i.e., car similar / slightly lower price than SUV I compare to).
Facts and numbers are so inconvenient. Let's ignore them.
Still not apples to apples. Model S and X are going to average $85-90k. Including cars below that level is just white noise.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
There aren't a lot of $90k SUVs in the market today.
Cadillac Escalade Platinum AWD, Porsche Cayenne Turbo.
Both are easily outsold but their similarly priced sedans from the same brand.
Does anyone else feel that the reason the model X is being delayed is not only because of continued engineering/enhancements but also (and maybe the major reason) because until the second assembly line is up and running and the battery constraints lessened to a degree that there is no point in it as they can't make the model S fast enough to meet even current demand let alone start producing the model X?
Other pricey SUVs: Lexus and Range Rovers
Other pricey SUVs: Lexus and Range Rovers
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Isn't that a bit of a hen and egg thing? If the Model X had been ready earlier, would they have started work on the second line earlier?
OK, that doesn't solve the battery problem.
But anyway, even Elon acknowledged that they were still making design changes
OK, that doesn't solve the battery problem.
But anyway, even Elon acknowledged that they were still making design changes
Citizen-T
Active Member
I have long argued that as long as the S is production constrained there isn't much point in trying to meet the dates set for the X. I'm sure that if they needed the X launched sooner they could have accelerated design and engineering in it. They could have let it out the door a little less perfect. But, since they have the time they might as well use it. Launching the X in an environment where they are production constrained on the S does nothing for them.
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