Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[beantownrich]

Yeah maybe I'm wrong but weird that Tesla would start a brand new line with old door panels....wouldn't it have been easier to train ppl with the new panel vs training on old then switching it out to the new. Or they prob just install the same exact way just all cosmetic.

I thought about this after watching the Berlin vids. My thought is that Rest of World is being supplied by either MIC and MIG models so they are trying to be consistent for their market. Whereas Fremont and Austin will supply only North America where the MY door card change hasn't been introduced.

My alternative theory is the plastics section is not yet completed and operational so in reality they're just being shipped the current parts from Fremont from the MY line.

 

[tangible1]

Let me throw in one more (complete) speculation. There was a statement that FSD HW4 was coming soon. You could put that in Austin with the 4680s and then justify sending those to people who bought FSD. This would effectively allow them to charge a (huge) premium if there's any 4680 benefit during ramp up, and address fremont/austin issues. (To be clear, I don't actually think this will happen, but it's not *totally* crazy.)

Nothing on the internet is totally crazy...... but I could be wrong...

 

[tangible1]

Elon has many months back mentioned an alternative structural pack not using 4680 as an option. I never said LFP, and would be surprised if it were. The Austin cars clearly are structural pack in multiple photos over time, and zero evidence otherwise. So we’re looking at either a 4680 pack with not a ton of batteries to yield 280 miles, or alternative structural pack, probably with the same batteries now in MYLR. The 280-mile-range EPA test car has an Austin VIN. That’s what is being built there now.
But again, who knows what the plan is for 3 or 6 or 10 months from now..

yeah, that was the 2170 'backup plan' battery pack, an alternate design for use if 4680 wasn't ready for production in time. I call that the v1.5 chassis.
it's entirely possible it could be utilized. Berlin comes to mind. So does China.

But Fremont and Austin are more knowable, and information is likely by mid-April.
LFP, 2170, 4680, should all get reveals.

 

[Mrbrock]

While your guess on MY SR is reasonable, there's never been any discussion of a structural battery pack using LFP cells.
There has been a '2170 backup plan' pack discussed, but that required a floorpan chassis, not a "bottomless" one (your term).
And the production line at Austin appears from all evidence to be building only 'bottomless' chassis - no floorpans.

It might make more sense that Fremont will build an LFP-based MY SR. They haven't started making 'bottomless' chassis yet.
But we still don't know the MY SR is LFP-based, either !!!!!

All speculation until maybe April 7.

The only reason LFP has been thrown into the equation is the same weight with lower range/capacity which means lower energy density. Unless they have a smaller battery and added ballast to keep the weight close to the same. Which would be ridiculous.

As far as the whole SR range thing, that is from a hacker. Tesla did not submit the car to the EPA as SR. They submitted it as Model Y AWD to add to the Model Y AWD LR and Model Y AWD Performance that already existed in the 2 motor model y naming hierarchy. Same hacker mentioned that Chinese code also has SR (duh, they’ve been making an SR there for a while, it’s not new). And they did resubmit the RWD SR MY for 2022. The testing screen showing the VIN for this Austin Test car also calls it long range dual motor which it is not.

As far as the structural 2170 backup plan (or maybe even 4680 for that matter), I wonder if they needed more structural elements than just gluing cells together and this has resulted in a smaller battery volume and extra weight. Just another log to throw on the fire as we wait for real news.

 

[Mrbrock]

Def a serious clump of white MY today from Tegtymeyer’s drone, not just a single stray... and all with 20-inch wheels. No new clues but its nice to see they have come far enough with production to start pushing out a third color.

Why they won’t zoom in on these so we can read the QR code sticker? Don’t need to go over the cars, just lower and 5’ away from the front. There’s nobody around to harm.

 

[Blueswoosh248]

All I know is that Giga Texas better start cranking out a ton of vehicles as soon as Elon throws his party and does his dance moves.

 

[BGOwner]

Why they won’t zoom in on these so we can read the QR code sticker? Don’t need to go over the cars, just lower and 5’ away from the front. There’s nobody around to harm.

Because they don’t want to have their flying privileges revoked. Seems one of the Berlin crew got his permission revoked for going too low and showing stuff he shouldn’t have

Two drone pilots told to stop flying over Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai

There will be fewer drone flights at two of Tesla’s Gigafactories after the automaker has asked two pilots to stop their flights over Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai. The first to be told to stop […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[advocate8]

Why they won’t zoom in on these so we can read the QR code sticker? Don’t need to go over the cars, just lower and 5’ away from the front. There’s nobody around to harm.

Deferential because afraid of getting run off and losing their fame... and fair enough, they may be operating under some sort of informal agreement not to go below a certain height... so they could get banned and we’d be out the drone intel which, day to day is kind of tedious but overall is invaluable.

 

[JDL@h]

Since this thread is mostly about speculating..intelligently may I add, I am curious why they have not put out any Performance versions yet. Is there some limitation thats hindering them. I would think Musk would like to see his pics in the media with MYP deliveries at Austin launch like he did in Berlin.

 

[SilverSp33d3r]

Since this thread is mostly about speculating..intelligently may I add, I am curious why they have not put out any Performance versions yet. Is there some limitation thats hindering them. I would think Musk would like to see his pics in the media with MYP deliveries at Austin launch like he did in Berlin.

They don’t want to tank existing MYP deliveries

 

[Mrbrock]

Since this thread is mostly about speculating..intelligently may I add, I am curious why they have not put out any Performance versions yet. Is there some limitation thats hindering them. I would think Musk would like to see his pics in the media with MYP deliveries at Austin launch like he did in Berlin.

The new battery tech might not be capable of continuous fast discharges without overheating. There is much more distance from the cooling channels to the center of the cells so heat buildup could be an issue. So not ideal for performance model. We really won’t know what has been achieved with 4680 and what it’s limitations are until Tesla tells us.

Deferential because afraid of getting run off and losing their fame... and fair enough, they may be operating under some sort of informal agreement not to go below a certain height... so they could get banned and we’d be out the drone intel which, day to day is kind of tedious but overall is invaluable.

Theyve been below roof height closer to the building than they have to those cars. They‘ve read shipping labels on wood crates. We’ve watched people eat near the battery production areas. Surely they can get close enough to a car without getting in trouble.

 

[beantownrich]

The new battery tech might not be capable of continuous fast discharges without overheating. There is much more distance from the cooling channels to the center of the cells so heat buildup could be an issue. So not ideal for performance model. We really won’t know what has been achieved with 4680 and what it’s limitations are until Tesla tells us.

That's been my thought too, if we remember the Plaid+ was supposed to be 4680 originally as well. Maybe they just can't get to the performance they're looking for there quite yet in the first gen.

 

[Firocity]

Are we sure that a 4680 MYLR would need to go through a separate epa certification when there is an existing one in place if they are able to produce one with the same kWh capacity?

 

[BGOwner]

Are we sure that a 4680 MYLR would need to go through a separate epa certification when there is an existing one in place if they are able to produce one with the same kWh capacity?

I was thinking that exact same thing. Great question

 

[Ron J.]

I was thinking that exact same thing. Great question

Are we sure that a 4680 MYLR would need to go through a separate epa certification when there is an existing one in place if they are able to produce one with the same kWh capacity?

For the 2021 MYs, Tesla increased the battery pack capacity and starting using the rear megacasting for the chassis during the model run and did not get recertified by EPA. So perhaps the existing EPA certification for the 2022 MY- LR and MY-P are all that is needed as long as the revised version equals or exceeds the specs. for the already certified 2022 versions.

 

[JDL@h]

For the 2021 MYs, Tesla increased the battery pack capacity and starting using the rear megacasting for the chassis during the model run and did not get recertified by EPA. So perhaps the existing EPA certification for the 2022 MY- LR and MY-P are all that is needed as long as the revised version equals or exceeds the specs. for the already certified 2022 versions.

Valid points

 

[tangible1]

Are we sure that a 4680 MYLR would need to go through a separate epa certification when there is an existing one in place if they are able to produce one with the same kWh capacity?

Good question, but the answer is likely YES.
It's a completely new configuration, not just a battery change.
The structural battery pack, revised chassis using 2 megacasts rather than just one, all is new.
I'm sure it improves on the existing chassis, but the NHTSA and EPA would both want to weigh in on that.
I seem to recall some discussion of Tesla re-testing the crash worthiness of the new chassis and being pleased with it's results.

 

[Mrbrock]

Good question, but the answer is likely YES.
It's a completely new configuration, not just a battery change.
The structural battery pack, revised chassis using 2 megacasts rather than just one, all is new.
I'm sure it improves on the existing chassis, but the NHTSA and EPA would both want to weigh in on that.
I seem to recall some discussion of Tesla re-testing the crash worthiness of the new chassis and being pleased with it's results.

But none of that has anything to do with the EPA. They just care about range/economy. EPA certification is only for range.

For Tesla to keep the same certification for the 4680 variant, it would need to have the same weight and same ranges in the various tests. Or they would be putting false information in the certification.

For 2021, Tesla didn't increase range and weight likely stayed the same when they made the changes. They offset the decreased megacast weight with extra batteries and changed the buffers so range stayed the same.

 

[Ghostchili]

Over the past few weeks it seems less and less likely MYP will be built with 4680s this year. I almost don’t want to keep mine on hold anymore. I was going to wait until the Austin party. Anyone else in the same boat?

 

[garumaru]

Yep I gave up earlier this month and put my order in. And I am so glad I did before the $4K price increase.

I ask myself now if 4k increase would have been worth the wait and the speculative 4680 battery. Especially when I don't even know if they will ever build MYP with 4680. There is no clear evidence nor any guidance from Tesla.

Also more price increases is more likely then a MYP with 4680 and I didn't want to wait when MYP becomes a $100K car in Canada before taxes.

Another increase would make MYP out of my reach in terms affordability.