Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Model Y (Investors thread)

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.

Buckminster

Well-Known Member
Aug 29, 2018
10,333
51,405
UK
Facts:
Speculation:
  1. 10% size - does this refer to volume, frontal area or something else? If you increase the height of the M3 by 10% you add ~10% to the frontal area plus 5% to the volume but you are only halfway to the Model X height.
  2. 3 rows?. Only 10% bigger might suggest 3 rows is now only ~30% likely. Access to 3rd row is trickier without FWD also.
  3. M3 SR+ could be the base battery size. $37k+10% = 40.7k = sale price of $40k. Reasons:
    1. This provides another purpose for why Tesla introduced the SR+ on M3
    2. Allows the base range to maintain 220 miles
    3. Elon I think mentioned much earlier a $5k premium over M3
 
I suspect there will be fewer preoders for the Model Y than Model 3. Not necessarily as reflection of less demand but just the experience was with the 3. No perks, higher price variants only with significant price drops since and so forth.
 
And don't forget all the "Tesla will have to dilute shares to pay for it" headlines.
Then....
-when that doesn't happen (heck even is it does happen) the endless headlines of bankruptcy.
-it will never be built
-there is too much demand
-can not be mass produced
-there is not enough demand
-the lower cost version is a money loser
-demand is drying up
-they can't do the truck and ramp Y (this is next in the 3 story after Y announcement)
(return to first line and repeat)

The stock will go up and down around $100 each announcement even tho everyone has heard the false stories before. Hopefully it will put use at a new level of $350 being our new bottom.

Did I miss any swing trade moments?
 
  • Like
Reactions: gene
I suspect there will be fewer preoders for the Model Y than Model 3. Not necessarily as reflection of less demand but just the experience was with the 3. No perks, higher price variants only with significant price drops since and so forth.


Fewer pre-orders for sure, but still a significant numbers. Avoiding regret is a powerful motivator. Plus the pre-order allows the depositor to participate in the event.

I'm still perplexed as to where they will build the car for the U.S. market. Maybe export from China? Trying to make a million units of four different model in Fremont seems crazy.

I wonder what Tesla forecasts for demand between the model 3 and the model Y in China.
 
I think they will move/start certain Fremont production over to the new building they are building in Lathrop and at least initially build the Y in Fremont. (I know they say they are leaning to the Gigafactory 1 location but I think they will say they have changed their mind.)
 
And don't forget all the "Tesla will have to dilute shares to pay for it" headlines.
Then....
-when that doesn't happen (heck even is it does happen) the endless headlines of bankruptcy.
-it will never be built
-there is too much demand
-can not be mass produced
-there is not enough demand
-the lower cost version is a money loser
-demand is drying up
-they can't do the truck and ramp Y (this is next in the 3 story after Y announcement)
(return to first line and repeat)

The stock will go up and down around $100 each announcement even tho everyone has heard the false stories before. Hopefully it will put use at a new level of $350 being our new bottom.

Did I miss any swing trade moments?

Who says any of these things, "It will never be built"???

I think Tesla has a rough road ahead, but I haven't seen anyone forecasting bankruptcy. I've never seen anyone saying "it" can't be mass produced. "too little demand"/"too much demand"... You seem like you are being silly about all this.

The track record is for schedules to be optimistic, so maybe it will be in volume production in the fall of 2020 and maybe winter or maybe 2021. While it is certainly a possibility there is no reason at all to expect it to be on time.

They are pricing the model Y higher than the 3. I don't see a reason why it needs to be more expensive other than they need to be sure to make enough money on it whereas with the model 3 they announced the $35,000 price long in advance, before they really knew what to expect.

I think the model Y will sell better than the 3, at least at the time it is released. The one criticism I've heard about the 3 from an owner was that the truck is too short to be very useful. A hatch back (which is really what the model Y is) was the right way to go. They should have made the Y first and maybe skipped the 3.

If they can talk Musk out of the goofy look for the pickup, it may do well. Tesla may survive long enough to make all this happen.

I've worked in the semiconductor industry for a long time and I've seen a lot of seemingly stable, big players go under and be bought. Even in the auto business we've seen large companies get bought and sold. Tesla won't succeed automatically. There are a lot of things they need to do right and while early success is good, it is not the same as success in the long haul.
 
Fewer pre-orders for sure, but still a significant numbers. Avoiding regret is a powerful motivator. Plus the pre-order allows the depositor to participate in the event.

I'm still perplexed as to where they will build the car for the U.S. market. Maybe export from China? Trying to make a million units of four different model in Fremont seems crazy.

I wonder what Tesla forecasts for demand between the model 3 and the model Y in China.

The Shanghai plant is stated to produce 300,000 cars a year in full production, but of course that's model 3s. That's not enough to sell to the US. They will be using different batteries and I suspect other modifications. It makes more sense to make for the US market in the US to avoid tariffs, we do still have two more years of Trump at least.

I agree that Fremont seems a bit shoehorned. But they will get certain advantages with the commonality of parts and especially the production expertise. Musk made a point of how much harder it is to build the cars than it was to design them. He is starting to mature as an automotive CEO. Let's face it, he didn't know what he was doing and had to learn on the job.

Whatever they do for the model Y, they need to get on the stick.
 
"Model Y Program Opening Ceremony..."

This would be big news. Elon is heading to Shanghai for this.

What do you think?


Tesla GF3 leak reveals big Model Y announcement at MIC Model 3 delivery event

upload_2020-1-6_16-23-53-png.497218
 
Last edited:
...I think Tesla has a rough road ahead, but I haven't seen anyone forecasting bankruptcy...

I thought the shorts are still alive with headlines now and then:


June 2019:

Tesla 'On The Verge' of Bankruptcy: Vilas Capital

May 2019:

Musk says Tesla will be out of money in 10 months without ‘hardcore’ changes

October 2018:

Here’s Why Tesla Will Go Bankrupt in 2019

April 2018:

Tesla Is Burning $6,500 Every Minute. It's Probably Going to Need to Raise a Lot More
 
Fewer pre-orders for sure, but still a significant numbers. Avoiding regret is a powerful motivator. Plus the pre-order allows the depositor to participate in the event.

I'm still perplexed as to where they will build the car for the U.S. market. Maybe export from China? Trying to make a million units of four different model in Fremont seems crazy.

I wonder what Tesla forecasts for demand between the model 3 and the model Y in China.
Pre-order allows me to participate in the Model Y delivery event at Fremont? I'd love to make it to my first Tesla event.