Got mine today and charged to 100% 260 miles looks like a net 60kw lfp battery.
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Model Y standard range for UK - will it happen
- Thread starter 2020M3SR
- Start date
If it wasn't official when MY inventory cars were sub £50k pre Christmas, I think it's official now. £45k MY on the actual order page now
As a side note, not great for us in terms of residuals but probably great for Tesla long term. Will make them very competitive v competition.
ID4, Skoda enyaq etc, they'll look expensive now v an MY SR for example which has huge space, decent range, can charge to 100% and still pretty nippy on the throttle
Will be interesting to watch this play out. Is it good or bad news for share price? That's a really tough call due to the Ying Yang here. Profit margins obviously take a big hit, but it's also a kick in the teeth to the competitors which might play out as a greater market dominance, even here in Europe. How do you price market dominance? There is big value in that.
Anyways, I do like RSPCA for a charity donation if you wish to oblige
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
40% sales increase last year. Smaller margin on larger sales volume ... sounds all right to me, but I have no idea what that does to share price ...
Also more factories means that more cars are being made closer to customer. I'd be curious what the cost of shipping a car from China to UK is (including the month+ delay in turning it into cash) compared to Germany-to-UK.
Shipping prices are mental. Was £1k to ship a 40ft container to UK from China, then peaked at £10k during covid, and back down to £1k area again I think.
But a 40ft container isn't a car and Tesla lease the boats outright, so I would estimate about £1k to ship to here for example but thats a plain guess
In terms of profit/financials, if you take a walk through the numbers (estimated/ballpark)
Say for example Tesla can get a MY SR into UK at a cost to them of £40k all in. Sell it for £52k, thats a 30% profit margin
If you are now selling that car at £45k, thats a 12.5% profit margin, which is clearly still healthy
However, in terms of overall profit even if you double sales off the back of a price cut like that, you still make less profit, due to lower margin
Eg, previously you were getting £12k profit for that car, now its £5k, you now need to sell double the volume just to get ~20% less profit
Of course, that £40k all in number cost to Tesla I pulled out of thin air. I simply took the £52k price at 30% margin to get to £40k, as thats the profit margin that Tesla has been generating on average, across the globe across all models. Nobody knows the margin breakdown by model type/region but at leasts its an approximate indicator to work off.
I think its certain, for the year 2023 at least, that even if Tesla were double their sales YOY, they will make less profit than 2022. So with double sales being unlikely, profits will be significantly down YOY (caveat, we haven't even seen profit for 2022 yet, I'm assuming at this point it will be broadly in line with previous years)
MashinBenzin
Member
You called it well, I gotta say!If it wasn't official when MY inventory cars were sub £50k pre Christmas, I think it's official now. £45k MY on the actual order page now
As a side note, not great for us in terms of residuals but probably great for Tesla long term. Will make them very competitive v competition.
ID4, Skoda enyaq etc, they'll look expensive now v an MY SR for example which has huge space, decent range, can charge to 100% and still pretty nippy on the throttle
Will be interesting to watch this play out. Is it good or bad news for share price? That's a really tough call due to the Ying Yang here. Profit margins obviously take a big hit, but it's also a kick in the teeth to the competitors which might play out as a greater market dominance, even here in Europe. How do you price market dominance? There is big value in that.
Anyways, I do like RSPCA for a charity donation if you wish to oblige
I reckon they will sell them pretty well at those prices, and a good aggressive move. They’ve clearly realised they need to sell hard to shift the significant extra production capacity for this year. If (big if) it doesn’t work then they are in a spot of bother.
Donation made…
Rooster6655
Active Member
Overall sales were up when you included the model Y sales that would have had the initial backlog orders.
UK Model 3 YOY sales were down 47% YOY
2022 - 18k (-47%)
2021 - 34k
Will be interesting to see if they beat 72k (Y+3) sales of 2022 this year with the new price cuts.
There's 10% import duty for cars from China before you add transport costs,
Just one small addition to your always-interesting and informative analysis.
If you reduce the price for new sales, there will be a consequence for residual values of both the new stock, and existing stock. And it - importantly - affects sentiment over the likely future value of second hand stock. If a car has a scarcity value / rarity, it holds value very well. However, once the car is seen as somewhat commonplace, the second hand value falls significantly.
My benchmark for this is the 3 series BMW. In the 1980s, they were far less common than they became in the noughties, were highly rated, high starting price and had excellent residuals. Once the sales volume started to build, the residual took a hit, so they had to offer substantial discounts to list to shift them. This feeds a self-reinforcing cycle until a new equilibrium is reached.
For Tesla, the fact that the Y and 3 look very similar acts against the Y in particular The 3's conservative design does not appear to most people to have changed in 6 years, therefore aging the Y at the same rate. Hence the steep fall in Y residual seen recently, as well as the price differential between 3 and Y which in my view is not supportable at its current difference.
Yes. I had a BMW 3 series, 2002 I think. E46 - I loved that car, it was fantastic. Sold it at about 8 years old for £1k to a friend in work, who subsequently ruined it and it was in the scrapyard within 12 months. Ignored the EML light and head gasket went. I still like the look of those cars but yeah, they were 'two a penny' back then and unless you had a premium model like an M, used values were horrendous.
Who knows what will happen with residuals but to hazzard a guess, I think the MY will hold up fairly well, at least through 2023, albeit the used price will rebase now due to the price cuts. But it should hold up fairly well I think.
As a M3 owner, I know full well I'm going to get a hammering this year. The cheapest M3 on autotrader right now is £26k, for a 2019 with 88k miles. Give it a month or two and we'll probably see 2020 MIC models with half the miles going for that sort of money (currently, £32k on autotrader)
After all, a 2023 brand new is £42,990 now and maybe even £40k at the end of quarter from inventory. So who's going to pay £32k for a 3 year old one with ~45k miles on it?
Now that there is no supply shortages, used prices will naturally follow new prices so those 2019 M3 cars on autotrader could be touching £20k in the not too distant future.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
For someone who buys new cars the "cost" is the difference between 2nd hand sale and new car purchase.
If both go down, but the difference remains in the same ballpark, its not much of an issue - allowing for the recent anomaly of the 2nd hand price being mental, largely due to post-pandemic supply chain issues. Got to try to remember that for the next pandemic in a century's time ...
A used car dealer near me said it was the first time he could remember where cars that sat on his lot appreciated in value!
I'm not disagreeing entirely but a few things mitigate this :
- Tesla have been working on reducing the manufactured cost - something to do with a single pressed component
- The supply chain was constrained last year and prices of materials and components were high - maybe they are coming down again ?
- MIC cars attract a 10% import tax - are we going to see German built model Ys removing that cost ?
- Tesla has been ramping up 2 factories in 2022 - China and Germany - this meant "inefficient" operations, factories not operating at "full" capacity (which has an associated cost)
- We dont yet know what 2022 profit margins are - maybe they will be *very* high and 2022 is the exception with a return to where Tesla want to be for 2023.
Yes, lots of push and pull factors and while lithium is still at elevated prices, no doubt other things have come down
Like you say, more efficient factory set ups/volume help margins too
Fixed costs like the building, heating, lighting, land rates, machinery etc etc....if you build more cars ramping up, then your fixed costs get diluted more favourably with volume output increase, and then fixed cost per car built becomes a smaller number
With that said, 10% to 20% price reductions in various markets is a heck of a lot of ground to make up. Let's see what Elon says at EOY earnings.
He forewarned last month that 2023 could see margin erosion and possibly even negative margin. Strong words!
Bjorn on YouTube did a road trip with small HVAC usage so a pretty good guide as to how far you can go with 100% battery. All done at 90km per hr on a main road, so about 56mph. I think he got 273 miles.
Worth noting, he found it 10% more efficient than the dual motor LR, which he got 306 miles from doing the same 90km per hr test, which is 33 more range than the SR. Not a huge amount in it.
Hope you’re having fun with your car. Wondering what range you’re getting considering few weeks of usage? Also do you find the car to be quick enough compared to dual motor version if you’ve ever driven one?
Sorry for the thread bump but quoting this for posterity and yes, to also say 'I told you so'
Not many people were on board with me back at the start of 2022 but worth a read back over some posts to see how this has all panned out for Tesla.
People were saying I'd be lucky to get a MY for below £60k soon and that there will be no demand issues for years, and that used Tesla residuals would keep increasing....completely detached from the reality of the general economy and how much money people have to spend on cars.
Looking back on this thread, how things have unfolded, people might say, yes, what we see now was bound to happen. But, back then, its clear the majority thought I was a raving lunatic with my head in the clouds. So I think I'm justified in the thread bump to say I told you so!
Rooster6655
Active Member
They reduced the prices in Jan 2023 so you were right in your 2022 prediction a year ago, I expect the UK prices for the Y will be coming down soon.Sorry for the thread bump but quoting this for posterity and yes, to also say 'I told you so'
Not many people were on board with me back at the start of 2022 but worth a read back over some posts to see how this has all panned out for Tesla.
People were saying I'd be lucky to get a MY for below £60k soon and that there will be no demand issues for years, and that used Tesla residuals would keep increasing....completely detached from the reality of the general economy and how much money people have to spend on cars.
Looking back on this thread, how things have unfolded, people might say, yes, what we see now was bound to happen. But, back then, its clear the majority thought I was a raving lunatic with my head in the clouds. So I think I'm justified in the thread bump to say I told you so!
I expect they will introduce more price cuts this year which will be at the same time where 2 year lease cars come up for sale too, not sure if that will play a part in their pricing decisions as people will now have a lot more used options
A really good point and one that's creating an interesting dynamic for all brand new EV sales for the year ahead. With no Govt subsidy for private EV purchases anymore, but still good benefits via company cars, we seen that almost 80% of all EV's bought in the UK last year where via company car type purchases, with only 20% ish of purchases from private buyers. That's heavily distorted from what we typically see across all car types, which is ball park 50/50 private purchases/company purchases in the wider UK market.
Like you mention, the above will only add to the issue you've already mentioned. Over on Pistonheads forum for example, people are snapping up cheap Audi e-trons due to the low prices. So that 20% of private buyers buying EV's, is that very low because they are all buying used instead, or just because they don't like EV's as much unless their is an incentive? I'm not sure but its going to be hard to bring ICE to EV converts into a new EV, when the used ones are going for such low prices. Minis, Corsas, Mazda 30's, Leafs and Zoes are cheap as chips on the used market, even fairly new and low miles and then at the mid range, you've got Tesla, Etrons, iPaces etc going for competitive prices and at the top end, Taycans are selling cheap (relatively) as well
So how do you sell a punter a brand new EV when the used ones are so competitively priced? I'm not a new EV buyer but if I was, it would be really difficult man maths to buy a new one when there are so many great value used ones to buy.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Company cars.
Many benefits, lower tax (salary sacrifice reduces tax/car allowance is taxed), often fully maintained & insured (known cost, spouse, children can be drivers, but conditions).
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