Model Y standard range for UK - will it happen

[HKP_Tom]

Have Tesla ever reduced any prices????

Yep - the Model S and X had significant cuts in 2018 just before the 3 arrived to help bolster sales. IIRC the Model S P100D went down by around £30k overnight..

 

[Adopado]

Have Tesla ever reduced any prices????

Yup

 

[Jason71]

So as some will be aware, despite most saying I was wrong, the Model Y standard range is now available for sale for UK buyers.

I knew it would sell well when 1st released and then sales would taper off, opening the door for a MY SR and here we are, literally a few months after I predicted that this would happen within 12 months. A bit earlier than expected but here we are.

It was obvious to me - there is only so big a market for cars at such high prices and while lots of people have their head in the clouds thinking Tesla just needs to build cars and people will buy them into infinity, people have budgets to work too, now, more so than ever and that matters.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a price cut next year either. We're looking like heading into a recession, BOE will raise interest rates a fair bit more too, higher household bills, higher mortgages etc. Tesla have such high profit margins that they'll have no problem reducing prices to keep the factories running optimally. Sub £50k model Y will be here next year.

I know people will probably laugh at the above but they laughed at me when I said MY SR is coming.....

Medal?

 

[2020M3SR]

Medal?

I think that's fair

I'm giving out insight with proven Forecasting skill for free after all. I would be made up with a virtual medal for my efforts

 

[2020M3SR]

Yep - the Model S and X had significant cuts in 2018 just before the 3 arrived to help bolster sales. IIRC the Model S P100D went down by around £30k overnight..

Yes, there was a big kick up from recent buyers at the higher price at the time as it destroyed their residuals.

Although, any future price cuts will not be to that scale you would think - that was an enormous cut

 

[Jason71]

I think that's fair

I'm giving out insight with proven Forecasting skill for free after all. I would be made up with a virtual medal for my efforts

Threre you go then

Of course anyone who heeded your wise words and held out for the RWD. Will now be paying only 3k less for it than an LR if they had ordered that back inMApril. Which seems like a relatively small price for 20kwh and an extra drive unit.
Just sayin.

 

[Kenners]

I like the way they are gaming the range up, the rwd version updates the range depending on wheel choice whereas LR and all the 3 configs maintain headline range whichever wheel option is selected. So you see the SR Y with aeros as dedault and LR with inductions - apples and oranges.

Based on overall range pricing of the 3 and Y the Y LR looks cheap (if a 60k car can ever be described like that). Would not surprise me if LR got another price increase.

 

[2020M3SR]

Threre you go then

Of course anyone who heeded your wise words and held out for the RWD. Will now be paying only 3k less for it than an LR if they had ordered that back inMApril. Which seems like a relatively small price for 20kwh and an extra drive unit.
Just sayin.

OK. Some more free wisdom. Listen up folks.....

I've already said price cuts are coming. We'll be looking at sub £50k MY in 2023

The MY SR is selling for £42.5k in the Netherlands TODAY!

Its €50k euros and yes, that's including Vat and no, there is no subsidy bringing the price down, that's just the straight sticker price

Yes, it's £10k more expensive in the UK but once the initial sales boost flattens out, we'll get the price cuts

Tesla have so much more capacity now and pricing has always been tailored to dovetail nicely to get that optimum demand/capacity balance. Yes, price has been climbing as a result of this pricing structure lately. Now, we'll watch it reverse

Tesla (TSLA) launches cheaper Model Y in Europe

Tesla has launched the Model Y Rear-Wheel-Drive Standard Range in Europe, and it is surprisingly cheap. It looks like Tesla...

electrek.co

 

[Kenners]

OK. Some more free wisdom. Listen up folks.....

I've already said price cuts are coming. We'll be looking at sub £50k MY in 2023

The MY SR is selling for £42.5k in the Netherlands TODAY!

Its €50k euros and yes, that's including Vat and no, there is no subsidy bringing the price down, that's just the straight sticker price

Yes, it's £10k more expensive in the UK but once the initial sales boost flattens out, we'll get the price cuts

Tesla have so much more capacity now and pricing has always been tailored to dovetail nicely to get that optimum demand/capacity balance. Yes, price has been climbing as a result of this pricing structure lately. Now, we'll watch it reverse

Tesla (TSLA) launches cheaper Model Y in Europe

Tesla has launched the Model Y Rear-Wheel-Drive Standard Range in Europe, and it is surprisingly cheap. It looks like Tesla...

electrek.co

Well the LR is the same price once you factor the Dutch EV subsidies. Variance in Tesla prices globally are nearly always due to subsidies and exchange rate hedges. And in an inflationary world there is very little chance of a price cut. But one can dream.

 

[MashinBenzin]

OK. Some more free wisdom. Listen up folks.....

I've already said price cuts are coming. We'll be looking at sub £50k MY in 2023

The MY SR is selling for £42.5k in the Netherlands TODAY!

Its €50k euros and yes, that's including Vat and no, there is no subsidy bringing the price down, that's just the straight sticker price

Yes, it's £10k more expensive in the UK but once the initial sales boost flattens out, we'll get the price cuts

Tesla have so much more capacity now and pricing has always been tailored to dovetail nicely to get that optimum demand/capacity balance. Yes, price has been climbing as a result of this pricing structure lately. Now, we'll watch it reverse

Tesla (TSLA) launches cheaper Model Y in Europe

Tesla has launched the Model Y Rear-Wheel-Drive Standard Range in Europe, and it is surprisingly cheap. It looks like Tesla...

electrek.co

We will see rises before any cuts. Inflation in double figures mean that Tesla will have to pay their people more and the same for every cost the business has, perhaps excepting retail space.

My own prediction is that a Model Y LR will be £62k within the next six months.

 

[MrT3]

We will see rises before any cuts. Inflation in double figures mean that Tesla will have to pay their people more and the same for every cost the business has, perhaps excepting retail space.

My own prediction is that a Model Y LR will be £62k within the next six months.

Inflation in China isn't that high which is where Tesla are incurring their costs for the UK vehicles, and it is commodity prices that caused Tesla to increase their prices, which are now coming down.

 

[2020M3SR]

Inflation in China isn't that high which is where Tesla are incurring their costs for the UK vehicles, and it is commodity prices that caused Tesla to increase their prices, which are now coming down.

Good observation. General inflation and sector specific inflation can vary significantly. It takes a while for changes to filter through fully too, for example, lumbar. Prices have now come down to more 'reasonable' levels but we're not quite seeing that at the local builders merchants.

 

[Kenners]

Inflation in China isn't that high which is where Tesla are incurring their costs for the UK vehicles, and it is commodity prices that caused Tesla to increase their prices, which are now coming down.

Unfortunatley Chinese pork prices are not an input into the price of a Tesla, unlike lithium.

 

[2020M3SR]

Well the LR is the same price once you factor the Dutch EV subsidies. Variance in Tesla prices globally are nearly always due to subsidies and exchange rate hedges. And in an inflationary world there is very little chance of a price cut. But one can dream.

Its not about dreaming. Its about looking around to see the reality. Subsidies and exchange rate hedges can't explain the below prices for MY in Europe

SR
LR

Norway 519990/559990
Germany 53990/56990
France 49990/64990
Netherlands 49990/65990
UK 51990/57990

France and Netherlands are 2 standouts. When we are talking about looking at reality, most people will know that (i) Tesla are extremely profitable, so they have plenty of room to sell cheaper if they chose to do so (as can be seen in France/Netherlands). We also know that (ii) if Tesla have great demand, they can and will sell at high prices. With 2 new factories ramping up, (iii) they will have more cars to sell.

So I think these 3 points are pretty much locked in as absolute fact and aren't really debatable (correct me if I'm wrong here)

For me, its only logical to assume that if demand isn't as much as factory output, they simply reduce the prices to the point where that sales volume ties in nicely with production. Tesla don't seem to like to hold too much inventory. Its not good for cashflow for a start so we'll possibly enter into a period of dynamic pricing.

It would be hard to deny that ultimately, demand will dictate the pricing. Its the Tesla way. Here in the UK, unless people go crazy for the £52k MY SR, or we see a sudden uplift in LR, then pricing will come down further, possibly even towards France/Netherlands prices (converted thats £42.5k for the MY SR)
However, if MY sales are very strong quarter after quarter, then prices won't come down to those levels. Its really as simple as that.

I could be very wrong in my prediction, but my overall read is that we'll see sub £50k MY in the UK within 12 months, with £42k to £45k also being possible. Many told me I was totally wrong on the MY SR coming to UK (some saying it will be years and years away) but as someone who works in financial forecasting for a living, as well as a car enthusiast, I could see this coming a mile away. The MY SR makes absolute sense for the EU market.

This might be uncomfortable reading for some people who have bought a MY as a cash purchase at elevated prices with the residuals at real risk of being hit quite hard but its just the way it is. 2 more factories, lots more cars to sell, household income under pressure across the world.....

Those who watch or listen to Elon Musk may have noted that his goal for the MY was to be best selling car in the world by revenue in 2022 and best selling car in the world by volume in 2023. He likes to prove his doubter wrong and prove himself right and if he wants to have MY being the worlds favourite car in 2023, well, you don't need to be a genius to work out that dynamic pricing will be a key in delivering that 2023 goal.

 

[pdk42]

Its not about dreaming. Its about looking around to see the reality. Subsidies and exchange rate hedges can't explain the below prices for MY in Europe

SR
LR

Norway 519990/559990
Germany 53990/56990
France 49990/64990
Netherlands 49990/65990
UK 51990/57990

France and Netherlands are 2 standouts. When we are talking about looking at reality, most people will know that (i) Tesla are extremely profitable, so they have plenty of room to sell cheaper if they chose to do so (as can be seen in France/Netherlands). We also know that (ii) if Tesla have great demand, they can and will sell at high prices. With 2 new factories ramping up, (iii) they will have more cars to sell.

So I think these 3 points are pretty much locked in as absolute fact and aren't really debatable (correct me if I'm wrong here)

For me, its only logical to assume that if demand isn't as much as factory output, they simply reduce the prices to the point where that sales volume ties in nicely with production. Tesla don't seem to like to hold too much inventory. Its not good for cashflow for a start so we'll possibly enter into a period of dynamic pricing.

It would be hard to deny that ultimately, demand will dictate the pricing. Its the Tesla way. Here in the UK, unless people go crazy for the £52k MY SR, or we see a sudden uplift in LR, then pricing will come down further, possibly even towards France/Netherlands prices (converted thats £42.5k for the MY SR)
However, if MY sales are very strong quarter after quarter, then prices won't come down to those levels. Its really as simple as that.

I could be very wrong in my prediction, but my overall read is that we'll see sub £50k MY in the UK within 12 months, with £42k to £45k also being possible. Many told me I was totally wrong on the MY SR coming to UK (some saying it will be years and years away) but as someone who works in financial forecasting for a living, as well as a car enthusiast, I could see this coming a mile away. The MY SR makes absolute sense for the EU market.

This might be uncomfortable reading for some people who have bought a MY as a cash purchase at elevated prices with the residuals at real risk of being hit quite hard but its just the way it is. 2 more factories, lots more cars to sell, household income under pressure across the world.....

Those who watch or listen to Elon Musk may have noted that his goal for the MY was to be best selling car in the world by revenue in 2022 and best selling car in the world by volume in 2023. He likes to prove his doubter wrong and prove himself right and if we wants to have MY being the worlds favourite car in 2023, well, you don't need to be a genius to work out that dynamic pricing will be a key in delivering that 2023 goal.

With inflation heading for 20% I find it very hard to believe prices in headline (£) terms will drop. Maybe in inflation-corrected terms they might soften, but even then I wouldn’t feel confident in that either given steady demand for EVs and the price of the competition (esp German marques).

 

[Adopado]

It takes a while for changes to filter through fully too, for example, lumbar.

Voltarol?

 

[MashinBenzin]

Its not about dreaming. Its about looking around to see the reality. Subsidies and exchange rate hedges can't explain the below prices for MY in Europe

SR
LR

Norway 519990/559990
Germany 53990/56990
France 49990/64990
Netherlands 49990/65990
UK 51990/57990

France and Netherlands are 2 standouts. When we are talking about looking at reality, most people will know that (i) Tesla are extremely profitable, so they have plenty of room to sell cheaper if they chose to do so (as can be seen in France/Netherlands). We also know that (ii) if Tesla have great demand, they can and will sell at high prices. With 2 new factories ramping up, (iii) they will have more cars to sell.

So I think these 3 points are pretty much locked in as absolute fact and aren't really debatable (correct me if I'm wrong here)

For me, its only logical to assume that if demand isn't as much as factory output, they simply reduce the prices to the point where that sales volume ties in nicely with production. Tesla don't seem to like to hold too much inventory. Its not good for cashflow for a start so we'll possibly enter into a period of dynamic pricing.

It would be hard to deny that ultimately, demand will dictate the pricing. Its the Tesla way. Here in the UK, unless people go crazy for the £52k MY SR, or we see a sudden uplift in LR, then pricing will come down further, possibly even towards France/Netherlands prices (converted thats £42.5k for the MY SR)
However, if MY sales are very strong quarter after quarter, then prices won't come down to those levels. Its really as simple as that.

I could be very wrong in my prediction, but my overall read is that we'll see sub £50k MY in the UK within 12 months, with £42k to £45k also being possible. Many told me I was totally wrong on the MY SR coming to UK (some saying it will be years and years away) but as someone who works in financial forecasting for a living, as well as a car enthusiast, I could see this coming a mile away. The MY SR makes absolute sense for the EU market.

This might be uncomfortable reading for some people who have bought a MY as a cash purchase at elevated prices with the residuals at real risk of being hit quite hard but its just the way it is. 2 more factories, lots more cars to sell, household income under pressure across the world.....

Those who watch or listen to Elon Musk may have noted that his goal for the MY was to be best selling car in the world by revenue in 2022 and best selling car in the world by volume in 2023. He likes to prove his doubter wrong and prove himself right and if he wants to have MY being the worlds favourite car in 2023, well, you don't need to be a genius to work out that dynamic pricing will be a key in delivering that 2023 goal.

Let’s have a tenner on it then, to the winner’s charity of choice.

I say MY LR to £62k within 6 months, so by the end of Feb 2023. You say sub £50k MY in 12 months, so by the end of Aug 2023.

Two separate £10 charity bets? Or two £5?

 

[2020M3SR]

Let’s have a tenner on it then, to the winner’s charity of choice.

I say MY LR to £62k within 6 months, so by the end of Feb 2023. You say sub £50k MY in 12 months, so by the end of Aug 2023.

Two separate £10 charity bets? Or two £5?

Sure.

I like children's charities, cancer, homeless and animal charities. I'll let you pick. 2 different £10 bets.

 

[MashinBenzin]

Sure.

I like children's charities, cancer, homeless and animal charities. I'll let you pick. 2 different £10 bets.

Nice one. children’s charities for me too. Let’s keep this convo alive in the meantime!

 

[2020M3SR]

Nice one. children’s charities for me too. Let’s keep this convo alive in the meantime!

Cool and best of luck! The charity wins regardless

I'll put a note in my dairy to revisit in end of Feb and end of Aug