More Model 3 changes and leasing now available

[voip-ninja]

I don't disagree with you on MRR - it is getting ridiculous. But something like EAP will need constant and recurring investment to become truly safe and reliable. Counting on cash from car sales to fund it isn't really sustainable. A subscription model makes a ton of sense there.
As far as competition, the Model 3 is actually making a dent in market share and it's been noticed. Ford has essentially killed their ICE lineup of sedans to focus on EV, and it seems the others are shelling out big bucks to enter that market. Read some of their shareholder reports. It's not a side project anymore. They're shifting major amounts of capital. Tesla massively disrupted the market. It's in the middle of an epic shift. And all without a massive government carbon tax! Imagine that, capitalism out-maneuvering politicians. Who'd have thought that possible? (Answer: Every capitalist that ever lived, including this guy)

If you think that what Tesla is doing would have been successful without billions of dollars in government subsidies I have a bridge to sell you.

I am pretty much set against subsidies and government involvement, but if you really are trying to do something as landmark as shift the automotive landscape from fossil fuels to electric you will need the government carrot to get it done in a reasonable amount of time.

I don't really care if my Tesla ran on whale oil, I bought it because it's fun to drive and, at the time, it seemed like I was getting a pretty sweet deal due to tax credits.

 

[Az_Rael]

Maybe, maybe not. I have had more than my share of bad service experiences and I still actually have a couple of issues with my car that remain unresolved.

I think, man, that new <$premiumsportssedanname> sure looks suh-weet and that company knows how to deliver a great service experience! Then I drive it and find out that it's a piece of crap compared to an EV.

The only real competition Tesla has today is themselves through things you mentioned. We'll see what happens to them if/when Volvo and others actually get a product on the market that people can actually drive and purchase without waiting another 1-2 years.

Oh, we aren't looking at ICEs. You can buy a Jaguar i-pace today, and the first Audi e-tron will supposedly ship in May. I am just not a fan of the SUV/CUV format. Hoping for a sedan from someone.

 

[ElectricLee]

Thanks, I think I am gearing more to buying because in the numbers I posted , yes I did not include the value of the car at the 3 year mark but even at 50% value at 3rd year. I think I would still come ahead by $1-3k also these numbers did not include the tax refund ( I mentioned it in it but did not deduct that from the 3 year cost) which I will actually deduct once I receive it..I would also be allowed to drive the car w.e amount of milage I want... (this can be good or bad for value if I plan to trade in) so I really don't see how this new lease program is really convenient if I am not actually going to "save at least 4-5k at the 36 month mark in total costs going with lease. I am saving on monthly going with lease but I come away with nothing...while buying I spend more per month but pay less in total 36 month cost after tax deduction and possibly make some money on it when selling or even breaking even...plus I have a say on amount of mileage I can put on it. You are right as long as the M3 doesn't sell for 40-45% of value at 3 year mark...buying seems better than leasing am I correct to assume this based on the numbers and your input?

AND, you can add your car to the Tesla Network to make $$$. Your ROI will increase over time, even if Tesla takes there 30-70% cut of the ride fee.

 

[azred]

Unless you intend to write off your lease because you are a realtor/can justify business expense - you are always better off buying ...

.

I am sure you know that common sense advice will cause lots of arguments. Not from me though.

 

[MXWing]

I am sure you know that common sense advice will cause lots of arguments. Not from me though.

For Tesla’s it’s always 100 percent true. Simply because the leases are not subsidized.

You have no idea how many people disagree and got pissed off when I said the 3P was going to kill the Base S and you’d be crazy to buy one.

They didn’t come back to take their disagrees after Tesla canned it.

 

[ZbadhabitZ]

Was on the verge of purchasing a LR RWD with Autopilot last week. Glad I waited. Having been bounced around with 3 different answers now, I’m wondering;

Does anyone know what the “in store only” Model 3 RWD now costs? Does it, too, include AP, or is that only for the “online” configurations?

 

[azogue]

I used this same idea when I got my S. Part of what goes into the calculation is obviously an enjoyment factor, etc.

I would also suggest you keep in mind electricity costs. I have noticed a sharp, obvious drop in my bills since leaving EV.

My gas costs is minimal right now. I simply do not drive that much anymore. If I did, maybe I could justify it with additional enjoyment factor.

Also, if the Q3 comes in lease wise (whenever they decide to release the thing) anywhere near these numbers I will surely consider the Tesla as well.

I loved my Tesla and I hope you enjoy it as well. It's a really fun car.

Having leased several newly released Audi models in the past, I doubt the Q3 will lease well when it is first released. Based on the success of competitors like the XC40, it's likely to sell well (at least at first). That gives dealers no reason to heavily discount and Audi/VW Credit little incentive to subsidize leases by raising residuals or lowering money factors.

 

[Bleu]

I think the constant price changes and poor messaging is all a symptom of what is going to kill Tesla in the end: poor customer service.

In my neck of California, dealing with service has been comically bad. It took FIVE visits (3 mobile, 2 SC) to install one missing decal on our S. And that was just one of many very poor service interactions we have had over the years at the two service centers near us.

The buying experience was poor for all three cars we bought from them, with the 3 being the best only because we knew where they would trip up and caught all the mistakes early.

There is only so much of that sort of B.S. you will put up with before you start to think "maybe that Audi would be a better overall experience." I know my husband was so frustrated after the ridiculous decal incident that played out over several months he was actually ready to sell the car if they couldn't manage that one simple task. Granted, that came after a long string of terrible service interactions since he bought the car but I figure one more bad one and he really will be done with Tesla. And he was a huge fan, following them since the Roadster - owning an S was a dream come true.

It is only a matter of time before that stuff catches up with them and more people get soured on the brand.

Their PR and customer service are a liability, but the fact that you've bought more Teslas since they became commercially available than I've bought cars speaks volumes. The product is incredible and game changing and there is no real competition. It's also a great value. Hopefully some real competition will emerge in the near future, and hopefully Tesla will get better where it is underperforming.

 

[SO16]

Wow, just got my car 2 weeks ago and now the same config is $2k less

The day I received my 90D, the 100D came out for the same price. Things change! I paid what I agreed to. I don’t “like” it but it is what it is. Glad to know my next Tesla will be an even better value. On the other hand, I could just go to a dealership and get screwed on every future purchase.

 

[Garlan Garner]

The day I received my 90D, the 100D came out for the same price. Things change! I paid what I agreed to. I don’t “like” it but it is what it is. Glad to know my next Tesla will be an even better value. On the other hand, I could just go to a dealership and get screwed on every future purchase.

Really?

I know retail "loves" you.

 

[azogue]

I think the missing ingredient for a solid analysis is an estimate of what the car will be worth in three years (a total guess of course). If you expect to have positive equity in the car at the end of three years (greater than $1100) but minus the tax credit you WILL get by purchasing the car- then buying is your best option. If you expect to land in negative territory- then leasing is smart.

However, looking at it another way- what is the CONVENIENCE worth to you of just tossing the keys back to Tesla after three years? Otherwise you have three options at that point regarding a purchase- Keep it and continue the payments, trade it and get wholesale value for it, or sell it on your own. I lease often as well- but have serious business benefits to do so (don't drive over 8,000 miles per year). And I lease very expensive cars. One other consideration for you: Tesla's are more like a "tech" purchase than a regular "car" purchase- which means your Tesla will likely become sort of obsolete AND cheaper in the long term. Tough decision for you- best of luck!

There is also sales tax to consider. In my state (Colorado), you pay sales tax on the full amount with a purchase, but only on the monthly payments on a lease.

Then, it matters what you do next. If you purchase again and trade this car, you get sales tax credit for the trade value. If you sell privately or for whatever reason do not trade, you do not get the sales tax credit. If you lease this one and lease again, you still only pay sales tax on the payments.

There is also a difference in the Colorado EV credit - this year it's $5000 for purchase versus $2500 for lease.

So, there are a lot of variables to consider.

 

[SO16]

Really?

I know retail "loves" you.

I don’t understand your post.

 

[Az_Rael]

Their PR and customer service are a liability, but the fact that you've bought more Teslas since they became commercially available than I've bought cars speaks volumes. The product is incredible and game changing and there is no real competition. It's also a great value. Hopefully some real competition will emerge in the near future, and hopefully Tesla will get better where it is underperforming.

It also speaks volumes that they have turned us from huge fans buying multiple cars into "well, let's take a look around before we buy another". (And I only bought the 3rd Tesla because my first one was totaled by an idiot, I dont normally buy new cars that often).

 

[SO16]

It also speaks volumes that they have turned us from huge fans buying multiple cars into "well, let's take a look around before we buy another". (And I only bought the 3rd Tesla because my first one was totaled by an idiot, I dont normally buy new cars that often).

I think people will find (if they are honest with themselves), the competition has an extremely looooong way to go to catch Tesla in all areas. I highly doubt any company could scale as quickly as Tesla and maintain fantastic support right away. But I do know I still prefer to deal with Tesla mobile service than any dealership.

 

[Bleu]

It also speaks volumes that they have turned us from huge fans buying multiple cars into "well, let's take a look around before we buy another". (And I only bought the 3rd Tesla because my first one was totaled by an idiot, I dont normally buy new cars that often).

There certainly have been volumes written about Tesla's downsides, and as a new M3 owner I'm pretty nonplussed about the price volatility, being uncertain whether auto lane changes (EAP) are supposed to work on our car or if we were simply misinformed by the rep, how they are marketing and incentivizing FSD, etc.

But man, the car. I don't think the public at large has grasped how vastly superior the product is.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I understand how people who aren't annoyed by these changes feel, however everyone is not the same.

I don't criticize those who don't do anything about things like this, however I wish the same could be reiterated.

I don’t understand your post.

Anyone that is content when vendors change prices as Tesla does is loved by a vendor such as Tesla.

I know I would be.

I would be elated if I sold a widget and I could move prices at my whim and NO ONE says anything.

 

[mrbulk]

I’m pretty up on the cost/benefits of leasing. I’m a target customer as I like to switch cars often and don’t mind paying a bit of a premium (not this much though) to always have a “fresh” one. Ideally, they will eventually implement some sort of subscription model where I just make a monthly payment and get a new car every X months (all maintenance/insurance included) like some of the other mfrs are doing.

I'm with you, although I'm leasing an S instead of a 3. When I first got the S, I leased because somewhere inside me I felt like this EV movement was just in its beginning with much better/cooler to come. So although I do pay a bit more via a lease, it's like paying a premium on some depreciation insurance: if for some reason the Model S gets phased out (say, in favor of steering-wheeless Ride Hailer type cars) then for the remaining "drivers" out there (myself included), the S would become more interesting and have its value somewhat protected. If the S is outpaced by new stuff (like by its own Model 3 brethren right now in certain areas) and its value drops, I can just turn it in and lease (or FINALLY buy) the next new best car for me at that time.

 

[whitex]

Maybe, maybe not. I have had more than my share of bad service experiences and I still actually have a couple of issues with my car that remain unresolved.

I think, man, that new <$premiumsportssedanname> sure looks suh-weet and that company knows how to deliver a great service experience! Then I drive it and find out that it's a piece of crap compared to an EV.

The only real competition Tesla has today is themselves through things you mentioned. We'll see what happens to them if/when Volvo and others actually get a product on the market that people can actually drive and purchase without waiting another 1-2 years.

I think by "that Audi" @Az_Rael meant the eTron, which is starting deliveries in the US next month. Tesla competition does include cars coming the next 2 years too, such as the Taycan, because knowing the cars are coming people are more likely to postpone buying a new Tesla (whether their first or an upgrade).

 

[voip-ninja]

I think by "that Audi" @Az_Rael meant the eTron, which is starting deliveries in the US next month. Tesla competition does include cars coming the next 2 years too, such as the Taycan, because knowing the cars are coming people are more likely to postpone buying a new Tesla (whether their first or an upgrade).

There is no direct competition for the Model 3 coming before the Polestar and that is a long ways out.

 

[whitex]

There is no direct competition for the Model 3 coming before the Polestar and that is a long ways out.

While technically true, do remember that people who would normally buy a Model 3 have in the past been known to stretch to a Model S. So, the same people might consider stretching to an eTron (same price as MS) if they think Model 3 is not a good option. Also consider that the eTron interior options are a very clear improvement over the Model 3, where the Model S value over Model 3 is mostly in its size (which the eTron also has). That, and the eTron will more than likely have features enabled on day 1, not like you'll have to wait months for heated seats or automatic headlights or rain-sensing wipers to start working.

PS> Before you say "but superchargers", those people who were buying early Model S also bought them with only a plan for superchargers (the charging network for eTron is actually further ahead than Tesla supercharging network was when MS was first sold). My first MS was never within a hundred miles of a supercharger in the 2 years I owned it.