Morgan Stanley Predicts Model 3 Launch Late 2018

[ohmman]

There was, what appears to be, a massive pullback in Supercharger and possibly Service Center construction by Tesla last quarter. They also streamlined S/X options, removed the cheapest X, and increased prices in a number of ways.

There are a number of possible explanations for this. But to name two:

1. The Model 3 is delayed and such expenditures aren't needed now (the Bearish argument)
2. The Model 3 is on schedule but Tesla is raising prices and trimming capital spending on nice-to-have items to avoid any further capital raises

Between Superchargers and Service Centers, the lack of Service Centers is more concerning. Superchargers can be added over time, but Service Centers will be swamped with Model 3 deliveries and overrun should there ever be service issues with the new car.

I can't remember the exact figure, but Tesla was predicting somewhere around a billion dollars of CapEx this quarter, after heavily reigning it back last quarter. Where that money goes remains to be seen. The results should be interesting.

It would be interesting if Tesla prioritized Model 3 deliveries based on locations with greater Service Center capacity/availability. That would go against the "close to the factory" mantra, as those are the most congested in the nation. But it would buy them some time to expand capacity in the saturated markets.

 

[ecarfan]

Also remember electricity vs fossil fuel have battled twice before in history, and electricity lost out. Regan helped waste taxpayer funds when he personally had ripped off the White House roof the recently installed solar panels

I am not defending the actions taken by President Reagan (not "Regan", that was his Chief of Staff) but those panels were not PV they were for heating water. See Where Did the Carter White House's Solar Panels Go?

 

[gregd]

I am not defending the actions taken by President Reagan (not "Regan", that was his Chief of Staff) but those panels were not PV they were for heating water. See Where Did the Carter White House's Solar Panels Go?

Interesting bit of history there. Thanks for posting.

I wonder if the White House would be interested in a new roof from Tesla / Solar City? "Not altering the look of the building" would be met that way...

 

[22522]

I expect there are traction/security needs that are non-standard.

 

[Red Sage]

There was, what appears to be, a massive pullback in Supercharger and possibly Service Center construction by Tesla last quarter.

Junction TX, Ozona TX, Fort Stockton TX. That leaves perhaps Van Horn TX, El Paso TX, Deming NM, and Wilcox AZ as potential Supercharger sites on the I-10... And maybe Midland TX and Pecos TX on the I-20, now that both Cisco TX and Sweetwater TX are open. I think everything is going to be fine.
supercharge.info

 

[S3XY]

Perhaps. But some might have made similar statements, expecting that the Tesla Roadster would hold an untouchable position within the Tesla Motors product line. But there is no version of the Roadster that does 0-60 MPH in 3.2 seconds, let alone 2.5 seconds. And the move to a horizontal layout for the main display in Model ☰ is a major change to the driver interface as compared to Tesla Generation II cars. I say again, there is no reason to protect sales of Model S and Model X. Those vehicles will dominate their price range, and exceed expectations for sales no matter how popular or advanced Model ☰ becomes. Certain features may only have 'added value' on the high end cars. Those types of 'bells and whistles' may only appear on Model S and Model X. But anything of great significance will likely be available on the entire product line, either as standard equipment or as an option.


I get the impression this set of predictions just allows Adam Jonas to post 'outperform' statements over the next 36 months.


Same here.

At this point I would think you've had to say this enough times that you should just add it to your signature. Then you can just say "See my signature" the next 87 times this comes up before the M≡'s final reveal. Actually, now that I think about it it won't even end there.

 

[VIKING26]

Junction TX, Ozona TX, Fort Stockton TX. That leaves perhaps Van Horn TX, El Paso TX, Deming NM, and Wilcox AZ as potential Supercharger sites on the I-10.

Nice call, Van Horn is now up on Supercharge.info as having a permit. This corridor will be closed quickly.

 

[vinnie97]

Funny, some negative nancy who shall remain unnamed was saying earlier this year how this route wouldn't possibly be addressed in 2016.