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Morgan Stanley Predicts Model 3 Launch Late 2018

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by VIKING26, Nov 23, 2016.

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  1. VIKING26

    VIKING26 Member

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    An Electrek article describing Morgan Stanley analyist, Adam Jonas, predicting that (surprise, surprise) the M3 will be more than a year later than Tesla is stating. Also, a much slower ramp up of production.

    "...forecast a Model 3 launch at the very end of 2018 (more than 1 year later than company target) with 60k units in 2019 and 130k units in 2020."

    I sure hope that this does not end of being the case. I want my M3 asap. Maybe Elon can use this as bulletin board material to motivate the team.

    Tesla Model 3 will not arrive until ‘very end’ of 2018, says once TSLA-cheerleader Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas
     
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  2. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    That is a surprise. We all know that the X was late launching by more than 2 years or so (opinions vary but there is no denying it was very late). Adam Jonas seems to think that Tesla has not learned from that mistake. While the 3 is a completely new platform, the X was mostly new, shares well under half its parts with the S (if you count the battery pack as a single part) and contained major new technology for Tesla (Falcon Wings, powered front doors, powered 2nd row pedestal seats, Pano Windshield).

    The 3 does not appear to contain any major new technology. Before you yell out "spaceship controls!" (maybe you already have) I will reiterate my position that, as per Elon's statements, no major new technology will be available on the 3 before it is available on the S/X. There is now way that Tesla is going to give the 3 some cool new driver interface without offering it on the S/X months before the 3 goes into production.

    Elon knows that Tesla's reputation will take a big hit, as will his personal reputation, if the 3 is anywhere near as late as Adam Jonas has forecast. So I believe that Adam will turn out to be very, very, wrong. Of course I could be wrong...
     
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  3. MTN Ranger

    MTN Ranger Member

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    #3 MTN Ranger, Nov 23, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2016
    I think reality will be somewhere between Elon's promises and that article. I feel that the Model 3 will definitely roll out in 2018. Perhaps trickle in 2018Q1 and full production by 2018Q2-Q3. I have a friend that works in sales at an electronic parts supplier for the Model 3 and it will be interesting to hear how the process will proceed during the next year.
     
  4. BobbyKings

    BobbyKings Silver

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    I'm pretty sure Elon will deliver at least 11 Model 3s on (or before) December 31st 2017.

    Whatever it takes.
     
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  5. sitter_k

    sitter_k Member

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    thats my thinking too...see we made it!
     
  6. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    12... it'll be 12. You forgot my future Model 3.
     
  7. bradbrok

    bradbrok Member

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    Take analyst predictions with a grain of salt.
     
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  8. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    My autocorrect automatically replaces "analysts" with "anal cysts".

    I think it's because sometimes they're a pain in the ass...
     
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  9. mkjayakumar

    mkjayakumar Active Member

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    .. and also Musk's timelines.
     
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  10. WileyTheMan

    WileyTheMan Member

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    Always that possibility. That said, I think if there was trouble in paradise at this point, Musk would have alluded to a delay by now (better to break the bad news sooner rather than later). He knows what's at stake and how highly anticipated this product is.

    Up to now, he's been all sunshine and roses about it.
     
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  11. Weezer Fan

    Weezer Fan Member

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    Wiley-maybe not. Musk has been working the Solar City deal, so he would not have said anything about M3 delays before then. However, I also found this article about Morgan Stanley
    Tesla’s SolarCity deal offers ‘zero value,’ Morgan Stanley says

    BTW-It would be very difficult for me to wait another year for the M3. Not sure what my move would be, but, I will need a car. Actually, I could use the M3 next summer, but will make due for a while. Can't make due for a year.
     
  12. 3Victoria

    3Victoria Active Member

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    TMC member analysis of the MS article is that it is designed for his clients. The feeling is that is is a very positive report, if you read between the lines of his very conservative assumptions. He gives a target price of $242, without including TE profits, SC worth, and late Model 3. None of those are likely: TE will ramp up over next year; SC has intrinsic value, and will be cash flow positive over the next year, and solar tiles will ramp up after 2016Q2; and the Model 3 looks to be on time, and most certainly will roll out much faster than his prediction.

    Unless EM indicates otherwise, we can assume the Model 3 is on time.
     
  13. Weezer Fan

    Weezer Fan Member

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    I love Victoria. Flying in to Nanaimo and driving over to Tofino this weekend. I've noticed on the Supercharger map that there are none on the island. I'm surprised there aren't any around Victoria.
     
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  14. 3Victoria

    3Victoria Active Member

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    Victoria is lovely. I grew up here, left for school x 12 years, and back since 1989. No SCs, yet. There are chargers across the Island, though -- look at PlugShare .. and lots of destination chargers. Have fun in Tofino ... might get a storm.
     
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  15. Foxhound199

    Foxhound199 Member

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    Tesla is known for throwing parties, right? They should throw a New Year's Eve 2017 party. No context, no explanation, just invites. Will they deliver Model 3s? Will they not? Tune in and find out!
     
  16. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    I'll drive up to your party in my month old Model 3 thank you very much. ;)
    I have faith in Elon's drive to make this succeed.
     
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  17. EV-lutioin

    EV-lutioin Active Member

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    I predict there will be more Model 3's produced in the first year of production than Bolts in their first year of production :)
     
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  18. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

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  19. Beckler

    Beckler Member

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    Jonas? Why does anyone care what this pretentious d-bag thinks? I certainly don't. :D
     
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  20. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    When he gives positive Tesla forecasts he is very popular.
     
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