Morgan Stanley Predicts Model 3 Launch Late 2018

[Reeler]

They have the alpha prototypes. Once we see Beta ones, I think they should be relatively close. Can't recall on the Model S how long it took once we saw the Betas to get production going.

I think they will produce an initial production run of parts to get some cars going early and then take a year to scale up to normal production. Maybe 10K deliveries in the first 6 months.

 

[3Victoria]

Not sure we will see betas, unless we are very lucky, as Tesla will keep them close to its chest. The ramp up is much harder to put a time frame on, as EM keeps telling us, since it is a S-curve, and the initial exponential growth phase is very sensitive to small variation.

 

[McRat]

I would want them to concentrate on engineering, testing, and quality first, deadlines second.

Yes, it would be cool to pick one up next week, or the summer, or as a Christmas present for 2017. But not one that wasn't ready.

It will come when it comes.

 

[Sharkbait]

@McRat

Totally agree. Even my S75 was delivered with a minor alignment problem between the edge of the frunk deck and the driver's front fender. I'm bringing it in next Wednesday and was told that it will be down for one evening For the price paid for the car, this is not something one would expect. Will a lower priced M3 follow this pattern?

 

[JeffK]

The way Elon was at the solarcity decision when questioned about the Model 3, it almost seems as though there's still a killer feature in the Model 3 that they don't want the public to know about until later. They don't want to mess up current sales. I'm 100% positive the Model S/X will get a feature bump this spring.

 

[Sonny Daze]

I don't think Jonas is considering the force of the dreadnaught.

 

[Topher]

I wonder how long analysts last at Morgan Stanley when they make bogus predictions?

Morgan Stanley analysts aren't judged by the truth of their predictions, but rather whether those predictions drive stock turnover.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't think Jonas is considering the force of the dreadnaught.

Personally, I'm hoping he gets run over by it. Multiple times. Repeatedly. Over and over and over again. Until the end of time. (Am I being obvious?)

 

[ohmman]

mod note: a bunch of political posts moved to the quarantine thread. Topic is "Morgan Stanley Predicts Model 3 Launch Late 2018." Let's stick with that, or thereabouts.

 

[S'toon]

mod note: a bunch of political posts moved to the quarantine thread. Topic is "Morgan Stanley Predicts Model 3 Launch Late 2018." Let's stick with that, or thereabouts.

Fair enough.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

mod note: a bunch of political posts moved to the quarantine thread. Topic is "Morgan Stanley Predicts Model 3 Launch Late 2018." Let's stick with that, or thereabouts.

Thank you!

 

[22522]

Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan Chase are different. Tesla is going to make the 2017 date with the 3. If I had to predict.

 

[BluestarE3]

Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan Chase are different

I must have missed it upthread; who was confusing Morgan Stanley with JP Morgan Chase?

 

[JeffK]

I must have missed it upthread; who was confusing Morgan Stanley with JP Morgan Chase?

He's a captain right?

Haha they are both named Henry Morgan so why not...

Here's a wiki for Morgan Stanley - Wikipedia
Here's another for laughs: Captain Morgan - Wikipedia

Disclaimer: Making financial predictions regarding Tesla Motors while under the influence of the wrong Henry Morgan can lead to undesirable outcomes.

 

[apacheguy]

That article states, quote:

(JB saying that the Model 3) will feature the “next generation” of Tesla technology.

He did not say the Model 3 will "contain all new technology" as you said in your post.

Not the same thing.

Note also that Elon has stated that new cutting edge features will first be implemented in the S/X before being available in the 3 and that may S/X features will never be available in the 3 or other lower prices Tesla models.

The M3 will have new technology and it will have some features unavailable on the S and the X. Bet anything that the cell characteristics will be different. (IMO)

 

[GBleck]

The MS report was kind of odd. It predicts a late model 3 roll out and a slow ramp with zero increase to the value of the company for the dilution of the stock with SC but does't really change the price target per share. He does value the massive data advantage that the autopilot cars produce though. No explanation as to why he thinks it will be late and slow ramp. Almost feels like he was just under promising conservatively now so he can change latter.

 

[JeffK]

Almost feels like he was just under promising conservatively now so he can change latter.

It's almost as if he's ignoring actual facts and actual Tesla progress toward their goals... Unless the Model 3 has some falcon wing doors we don't know about.

 

[Sonny Daze]

It's almost as if he's ignoring actual facts and actual Tesla progress toward their goals... Unless the Model 3 has some falcon wing doors we don't know about.

Well, it does have an interior we don't know much (if anything) about.

 

[JeffK]

Well, it does have an interior we don't know much (if anything) about.

I'd imagine the challenges on the interior are more of a software challenge than hardware. As far as manufacturing the larger top/rear opening on the car will allow easier access for robotic assembly before the glass roof is put on.

 

[BluestarE3]

Unless the Model 3 has some falcon wing doors we don't know about.

Or a hatchback we don't know about.