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Most underestimated threat to Tesla?

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Apparently coming out of the shadows soon.

"Representatives remain tight-lipped about the details, but at some point Atieva decided to shift focus and design a consumer EV from scratch. For the past 7 months, the company has been hiring engineers to build its design team from about 100 to 300 key personnel. It recently moved to a larger facility in Menlo Park, CA and is actively looking for more real estate to develop vehicles."

Interesting to see Atieva luring Tesla engineers with subtle digs at how hard it is to work at Tesla: "Welcome to a better place to do your life’s work." and "Work with automotive industry legends, not for them."

Next they'll include something about paternity leave.

Charged EVs | EXCLUSIVE: Stealthy EV startup Atieva ramps up hiring, including many top ex-Tesla engineers

I'll bet that this is Apple's venture into the EV market!! Progressing under the radar is typical for them!!
 
I'll bet that this is Apple's venture into the EV market!! Progressing under the radar is typical for them!!

I suspect this is not Apple's project.

Having a booth at SAE World Congress and advertising openly is not exactly flying under the radar. The article also says the company was looking to go from 100 [edit: article says 12 former Tesla engineers = 10% of team, or 120 people total] to 300 key personnel, while Ars Technica reported that as of February 2015 there were already "hundreds" of people working on Apple Car at Apple facilities (http://arstechnica.com/cars/2015/02...al-hundred-staffers-building-an-electric-car/), including a prominent veteran of Ford Motor Co.


I doubt that company is owned or funded by Apple.

Apple would keep their EV efforts inhouse, I think.

For new product categories (like iPhone and Apple Watch), design and initial R&D is kept very secret (small number of people working in isolation, tight access control to physical facility).

I would actually be very excited if Atieva comes up with something novel to go against Apple and Tesla. The barriers to competing with Tesla are very high though. A car factory, a Gigafactory for batteries, and a Supercharger network will be difficult to compete against. I'll keep my eye on Atieva, but it's impossible to evaluate their competitiveness without any specifics.
 
IfAtieva is a serious new EV company, and also Apple is really going to build an EV (I'm still not certain), I love it! Who would have predicted just a decade ago that the San Francisco Bay Area could would become ground zero for a new generation of automobile manufacturers?

From our perspective now it seems fairly obvious: cars are transitioning to being EVs controlled by software, so why not in the Bay Area. But a decade ago it was not so obvious.

That said, I don't think anyone besides Tesla is going to manufacture cars in the San Francisco Bay Area because there are no large areas of land to build a new factory on and costs are too high. But there is a lot of smart engineering and software talent available.
 
Apparently coming out of the shadows soon.

"Representatives remain tight-lipped about the details, but at some point Atieva decided to shift focus and design a consumer EV from scratch. For the past 7 months, the company has been hiring engineers to build its design team from about 100 to 300 key personnel. It recently moved to a larger facility in Menlo Park, CA and is actively looking for more real estate to develop vehicles."

Interesting to see Atieva luring Tesla engineers with subtle digs at how hard it is to work at Tesla: "Welcome to a better place to do your life’s work." and "Work with automotive industry legends, not for them."

Next they'll include something about paternity leave.

Charged EVs | EXCLUSIVE: Stealthy EV startup Atieva ramps up hiring, including many top ex-Tesla engineers

I get that from the engineers perspective. I really appreciate Elon's insane drive and that he expects that from everyone around him. As an investor it is really great for the company. It is also one of the reasons I don't work at Tesla right now. With a family and my commitment to them there is no place for me on any team anywhere near Elon :)
 
I get that from the engineers perspective. I really appreciate Elon's insane drive and that he expects that from everyone around him. As an investor it is really great for the company. It is also one of the reasons I don't work at Tesla right now. With a family and my commitment to them there is no place for me on any team anywhere near Elon :smile:

I really do not know what Tesla's culture is like, but I would be very surprised if people writing these news articles knew more than me. Speaking with few have been or current employees is not enough to provide an insight into Tesla's culture. The culture is usually evaluated by conducting extensive employees surveys, and even these may be misleading. Past employees are more likely to be biased against the company.

Also, it seems to me that newspapers might be emphasizing sensationalistic quotes and perhaps misquoting or taking out of context.

It is unfair to broadcast one-sided sensationalistic comments with no opportunity given to the other side to respond. It is unfortunate that Elon is cornered with these public statements into having to respond. It is hurtful, damaging and a waste of his time.

All I can say on this topic is that Elon's actions speak much louder about who he is than any books or newspapers articles on him or on Tesla ever will.
 
The will not be build in California, they develop only the powertrain, battery tech and some infotainment features, most of the software is being made by Chinese LeTV.

The company is now apparently valued at ca. 2 Billion $ btw, up from 800 Mio last round, so its not too shabby.

So while they claim that they building the car, they actually just make part of it.

My understanding is that they have 2 Directions:
1. China EV Market, obviously they plan to export cars worldwide later.
2.Licensing Battery/Powertrain tech to others, most notably it appears VW is among the companies licencing it, they will most likely never tell publically, but this will most likely leak in a few years time.

So one car will be a Sedan from BAIC Motors coming late 2016, targeting Model 3. And LeTV plans to offer a premium 4 door coupe under its own brand, kind of Internet car with close to dozen touchscreens across the car. I think if anything, the car they develop is for LeTV, which will be kind of showcase of their tech, price supposed to be close to high end Tesla in China while BAIC will offer car for the unwashed.
 
IfAtieva is a serious new EV company, and also Apple is really going to build an EV (I'm still not certain), I love it! Who would have predicted just a decade ago that the San Francisco Bay Area could would become ground zero for a new generation of automobile manufacturers?

From our perspective now it seems fairly obvious: cars are transitioning to being EVs controlled by software, so why not in the Bay Area. But a decade ago it was not so obvious.

That said, I don't think anyone besides Tesla is going to manufacture cars in the San Francisco Bay Area because there are no large areas of land to build a new factory on and costs are too high. But there is a lot of smart engineering and software talent available.

Sacramento was ground zero for EVs in the 1990's. That is where all the "garage bands" and rock stars would go to show their projects and collaborate.
 
unless Atieva has a stealth trillion in cash to build 200 GigaFactories, I don't see any threat to Tesla.

I think a company could complete in the high end EV market without copying Tesla's exact business plan. Especially if a new company just wants to make luxury vehicles at top prices. And you don't need a gigafactory to make money at luxury prices.

Imagine three years from now when Tesla is really focused on Model 3 rollout, and the Model S is essentially 5-6 years old. A new company could take a share of the luxury EV market with a fresh new design. All other things being equal, of course.

It's hard to imagine, but definitely possible. There are a lot of high-end buyers who just want the newest thing.

I get that from the engineers perspective. I really appreciate Elon's insane drive and that he expects that from everyone around him. As an investor it is really great for the company. It is also one of the reasons I don't work at Tesla right now. With a family and my commitment to them there is no place for me on any team anywhere near Elon :)

Totally agree. I really admire the drive and contribution to the world that people like Elon make, but I could never do it. Not at that level. Being a regular entrepreneur is hard enough on my health and family. The extreme drive, and subsequent achievement, seems to come with a huge personal cost.
 
I think a company could complete in the high end EV market without copying Tesla's exact business plan. Especially if a new company just wants to make luxury vehicles at top prices. And you don't need a gigafactory to make money at luxury prices.

Imagine three years from now when Tesla is really focused on Model 3 rollout, and the Model S is essentially 5-6 years old. A new company could take a share of the luxury EV market with a fresh new design. All other things being equal, of course.

It's hard to imagine, but definitely possible. There are a lot of high-end buyers who just want the newest thing....
but without a charging network the high end EV will be a local only car unless there are major changes in energy storage.
 
I think a company could complete in the high end EV market without copying Tesla's exact business plan. Especially if a new company just wants to make luxury vehicles at top prices. And you don't need a gigafactory to make money at luxury prices.

Imagine three years from now when Tesla is really focused on Model 3 rollout, and the Model S is essentially 5-6 years old. A new company could take a share of the luxury EV market with a fresh new design. All other things being equal, of course.

It's hard to imagine, but definitely possible. There are a lot of high-end buyers who just want the newest thing.

K, I don't see Atieva or any other startup having volume production in the tens of thousands in under 5 years. By 2020, I think we will see the Model S and X offered with 400 miles of range, and SuperCharging down to 15 minutes or less. At that point, essentially the only remaining attribute the S/X (and any similar EV from a startup or anyone else) wont meet or decidedly exceed ICE vehicles in their price range at is the loud noise of an engine some enjoy with their ICE cars. What I'm saying is, Atieva would not be poaching on Tesla's 10% of the market, but rather with Tesla, Atieva would be gobbling up as much of the ICE market as they had production capacity for (of course, some exceptions, those without plug access, or those that really like the sound of a roaring engine). I wish Atieva well, there's plenty of room for them.
 
I have thought about Atieva some more, and I think the company intends to do exactly what they say in their marketing materials: "designing and creating a breakthrough electric car in the heart of Silicon Valley."

I believe that this means a (1) relatively low volume, high-performance vehicle (2) implementing "early adopter" tech like new battery chemistry (3) reflecting design that is less mainstream and more daring.

Based on the vague concept image/animation on the company's website, their product appears to be a 2-door sports car with semi-covered rear wheels like a 1st Generation Honda Insight.

With Tesla no longer building the Roadster, and Tesla preoccupied with Model X and Model 3 for the next few years, there is a market for a Roadster successor. Think about it this way: Tesla is going to be focused on going mainstream. Elon has stated that Model 3 will focus less on "daring" design and more on bringing existing Tesla strengths to a more affordable car. The ex-Tesla engineers who worked on the Roadster and initial Model S probably want to go in the other direction... MORE daring. There's probably plenty that these engineers wanted to do with Roadster and Model S that couldn't be accomplished due to time and budget constraints. Atieva is their chance to realize their dreams.

With private funding and no pesky institutional shareholders to please, the Atieva team may have the time and flexibility to accomplish what they want.

I do not see this company as direct competition to Tesla in the near term. It would take years, probably close to a decade, to build up to where Tesla is today, even if they wanted to take this path.

I do see this company as potentially pushing the envelope a lot more than Tesla in terms of design. That may mean vehicles that are slightly odd or even weird in addition to being awesome. In any event, I wish them well and look forward to seeing their product.