flankspeed8
Member
As much as I love Apple and their products, for some reason an Apple car just is not appealing to me.
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As much as I love Apple and their products, for some reason an Apple car just is not appealing to me.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Also, Apple's nemesis, Google, developed a serious foothold in the auto space with their self-driving technology. Apple cannot afford to sit still. They need to stay bold and aggressive. By definition, this will mean continue taking big risks. They will not remain at the top of the heap selling iPhones forever, and this is a company that wants to be around for another 100 years.
Having no car making history is a double edge sword, cuts both ways. Tesla is on a learning curve now, learning the best way to manage new products release, logistics issues, customers expectations management, global market management, pricing management in various markets, etc. Despite that, I agree with you that benefits of no legacy outweigh the losses.
Tim Cook has achieved too much in his career to be hungry. He may be just looking for a small desert. He does not even strike me as a desert guy. I could be wrong.
That leaves us with happy Apple, with plenty of cash, good supply chain expertise, great electronics, great brand. It may not be enough to push Apple onto treacherous road of making electric cars. Maybe they will make some attempts until they have a better idea of what it takes. Anyway, without a ready product, they are behind Tesla and unlikely to catch up.
Imho the main Tesla competitive edge is their manufacturing innovation. I find their growth so far excellent considering product and supply chain complexity. If they can keep the pace it will be very difficult for any follower to catch up. All these manufacturing robots are greatly reducing the cost, improving product quality and increasing the reliability of manufacturing.
Second competitive edge is a dual motor powertrain. We have not seen the best of it yet. The possibilities of improving the d drivetrain performance have just opened up, it will get better and better as Tesla engineers learn and translate that learning into both old and new products.
I think in the approaching world, EV Cars ARE consumer electronics. Remember the product Apple would enter the market with would transport itself.
I agree with the other points you make...
I would caution readers, right or wrong, agree or not, Jobs defined Apple (and laid multi-decade plans) as a user experience company intersecting technology and humanities. And specifically with capital resources to deploy that vision at scale beyond any pre conceived business. Now with something approaching $200B cash, deploying a consumer electronics automobile worldwide is but a development and logistics excercise. They may not in the end do this, or may partner (Tesla or otherwise); but the fact they can employ 1000 employees to 'explore' the idea Tesla employs to accomplish, without even a noticeable ripple is a testament to the fact we are headed to an all EV fleet in the decades to come and is ONLY a leveragable asset to Tesla and TSLA. It's my estimation Elon couldn't be more pleased and in fact already knows why Apple is reverse poaching employee talent, and has already computed the strategies for how Tesla will advantage to whatever Apple does with those employees....
Great discussion. Thanks
marvinat0rz
Member
I think an Apple that tries to do electric cars is a real long-term threat to Tesla. All existing car companies are (determentally) reluctant to adopt EVs due to a vested interest in combustion engines. Apple does not, and has great expertise in industrial design, software, global supply chain & distribution and familiarity with power electronics. Most importantly, Apple has $200 billion in cash (and growing) that it would perfer to invest rather than lose value to inflation. Apple could easily afford 30 gigafactories, and have a strong incentive to use their ridiculous amount of cash in one of the very few industries that are capital intensive enough to challange them.
There could probably be a symbiotic relationship between Tesla and an automotive Apple. The auto market is huge. But Apple could be a real competitor to Tesla. If they were successful, we would at best see an electric car duopoly, with would reduce the long-term maximum sales that Tesla could achieve. I think this is a more likely long-term result that Tesla capturing the vast majority of the electric car market. The tech world seems to consistently create duo- or trio-polies (sp?) when new industries are staked out. Think web search, CPU manufacturing, GPU manufacturing, smartphones and others. However, this doesn't imply that Tesla would be a bad investment. I just say it's something to look out for.
Apple is at this point the most likely serious long term competitor to Tesla. I also think that a perceived serious initiative on their part could negatively impact the stock price, due to a lower growth expectancy for Tesla. However, there is a long way to this point. Tesla has a world-leading expertise on EVs, an organization and design team that's been thinking about this for a decade and also years of effort in developing and building both a global charging network and distribution network. This is not something that even a capital-rich competitor can duplicate in a couple of years, but I can believe it's a possibility in a longer timeframe. Think Microsoft entering the console market, writ large. This might sound like a ridicuous comparison. But continued human economic growth, increased automation and the exponential improvements this entails, ensures that we will see larger and larger investment projects. I've outlined a case where the incentives indicate that this could happen.
There could probably be a symbiotic relationship between Tesla and an automotive Apple. The auto market is huge. But Apple could be a real competitor to Tesla. If they were successful, we would at best see an electric car duopoly, with would reduce the long-term maximum sales that Tesla could achieve. I think this is a more likely long-term result that Tesla capturing the vast majority of the electric car market. The tech world seems to consistently create duo- or trio-polies (sp?) when new industries are staked out. Think web search, CPU manufacturing, GPU manufacturing, smartphones and others. However, this doesn't imply that Tesla would be a bad investment. I just say it's something to look out for.
Apple is at this point the most likely serious long term competitor to Tesla. I also think that a perceived serious initiative on their part could negatively impact the stock price, due to a lower growth expectancy for Tesla. However, there is a long way to this point. Tesla has a world-leading expertise on EVs, an organization and design team that's been thinking about this for a decade and also years of effort in developing and building both a global charging network and distribution network. This is not something that even a capital-rich competitor can duplicate in a couple of years, but I can believe it's a possibility in a longer timeframe. Think Microsoft entering the console market, writ large. This might sound like a ridicuous comparison. But continued human economic growth, increased automation and the exponential improvements this entails, ensures that we will see larger and larger investment projects. I've outlined a case where the incentives indicate that this could happen.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Couldn't have said it better myself.
There is a long way ahead of Tesla, too. The stock price reflects the expectation that Tesla is willing and able to walk that very long walk. I wasn't ever concerned about other auto manufacturers threatening Tesla, because they live mostly in the past, and to the extent they see the future they are very slow to adapt. Apple is a different story. There is no leaner and meaner predator out there. I hate to say this, but Apple doesn't have much to learn from Musk; what he is trying to do to GM, Apple did before to Nokia.
As to the idea that Apple must be satisfied and complacent because it is so big, this is what Cook had to say about it:
I am very afraid of a beast that looks like a dinosaur, but has the speed of a cheetah and the agility of an owl. (On the other hand, if I can become his best friend...)WSJ said:
Anyone else who doubts Apple is a serious and likely threat to car manufacturers should read the WSJ article linked below. It's a Google search, follow the first result to go around the paywall.
Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
We live in very interesting times.
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AustinPowers
Total Smeghead
++++1
Would one really want to buy a car from a company known for
a) employing slave labor to produce their products - and don't anyone try to call what working is like at Foxconn anything else than modern slavery?
b) selling highly overpriced products even though they are made by a)? Or would you buy a Nissan at the price of a Bentley? Strangely enough, when it comes to Apple, people seem to switch off their brains. An iPhone costs three to four times as much as similar smartphones from competitors (who also produce at Foxconn like most of them do), yet is an iPhone three or four times better? I dare say no. And I know many people who have had iPhones and now buy from other companies because they say when it comes to value-for-money, Apple is just ridiculous.
c) collecting all your driving data and doing god knows what with it. That's bad enough on any modern smartphone, but would you want that in a car???
Cars by Apple, Google or running on software by Apple, Google, etc.? Thanks, but no thanks.
(Then again, I don't even like the idea of having a browser on a car. A car is for driving, not surfing the web. There are enough accidents already caused by idiots playing with their mobiles while driving. Optionally offering even more things to take away your attention from what is the purpose of a car in the first place is the worst thing that has happened to cars in the last few years imho.)
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I may be missing the point here, but with all the news of smart car hacking, I wonder if the under-estimated threat isn't another BEV manufacturer, as much as it could be a group like "Anonymous" hacking into our cars and causing massive damage?
Just a thought...I wonder what types of firewalls and anti-theft/hacking TM has built in, or will upload into our cars?
Just a thought...I wonder what types of firewalls and anti-theft/hacking TM has built in, or will upload into our cars?
I wonder what are the health effects of using insane mode on a daily basis.
it's a secret plot to audition suitable's for the Mars colony trip;
In general, the biggest threat to the EV industry which would include Tesla is .... apathy.
People in general can be very apathetic and not really care about something new, including if there are both political and environment aspects to it. I think the EV industry itself will fall under a category of "this is optional".
Lot of interest in things like Mars (noted above) but such a thing is also "very optional" to humanity. To think that Mars is some place where we could "colonize" is currently irrational. Until gravity-based propulsion is figured out and harnessed, using rockets to go anywhere is just not going to work for any sort of thing other than missions that are one-way and very small scale. The real answer is trying to figure out how those (debatable topic) "little grey guys" get around the stars and do it that way. So, for me, Mars is "optional".
If we figure out new forms of energy on a large-scale, there is far less need to colonize any other planets because then we can start to treat this one better.
People in general can be very apathetic and not really care about something new, including if there are both political and environment aspects to it. I think the EV industry itself will fall under a category of "this is optional".
Lot of interest in things like Mars (noted above) but such a thing is also "very optional" to humanity. To think that Mars is some place where we could "colonize" is currently irrational. Until gravity-based propulsion is figured out and harnessed, using rockets to go anywhere is just not going to work for any sort of thing other than missions that are one-way and very small scale. The real answer is trying to figure out how those (debatable topic) "little grey guys" get around the stars and do it that way. So, for me, Mars is "optional".
If we figure out new forms of energy on a large-scale, there is far less need to colonize any other planets because then we can start to treat this one better.
green1
Active Member
And this is exactly why Tesla made a great car that just happens to be electric, instead of making an "EV" They know that most people don't care about an EV, but they know that people DO care about having a great car. People may not rush out to replace what they're driving now, but it will eventually need replacement, and if a great vehicle just happens to be an EV, they'll buy it.
Mods, can you move this post over to the SpaceX forum? I think there would be interest. ;-)
@bonaire, obviously Elon disagrees with your stated position, as I'm sure you know. His reasons for wanting to colonize Mars are not limited to concern over global warming and its impact on terrestrial life forms. He is also concerned about the inevitable large asteroid impact that could wipe out most of humanity and send earth civilizations back to near Stone Age conditions, but with solar radiation levels so reduced by the time they reach the surface that agriculture could be very difficult.
Apparently coming out of the shadows soon.
"Representatives remain tight-lipped about the details, but at some point Atieva decided to shift focus and design a consumer EV from scratch. For the past 7 months, the company has been hiring engineers to build its design team from about 100 to 300 key personnel. It recently moved to a larger facility in Menlo Park, CA and is actively looking for more real estate to develop vehicles."
Interesting to see Atieva luring Tesla engineers with subtle digs at how hard it is to work at Tesla: "Welcome to a better place to do your life’s work." and "Work with automotive industry legends, not for them."
Next they'll include something about paternity leave.
Charged EVs | EXCLUSIVE: Stealthy EV startup Atieva ramps up hiring, including many top ex-Tesla engineers
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Thanks for posting this K. It will be interesting to watch. Good to see- I doubt any of the incumbent automakers (with the exception of Nissan) will make a large move to EVs for at least a decade. As to the topic of this thread, unless Atieva has a stealth trillion in cash to build 200 GigaFactories, I don't see any threat to Tesla.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
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