Blog Musk Touts ‘Quantum Leap” in Full Self-Driving Performance

A “quantum leap” improvement is coming to Tesla’s Autopilot software in six to 10 weeks, Chief Executive Elon Musk said a tweet.

Musk called the new software a “fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1294374864657162240

Musk said his personal car is running a “bleeding edge alpha build” of the software, which he also mentioned during Tesla’s Q2 earnings. 

“So it’s almost getting to the point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions, despite going through construction and widely varying situations,” Musk said on the earnings call. “So this is why I am very confident about full self-driving functionality being complete by the end of this year, is because I’m literally driving it.”

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software has been slow to roll out against the company’s promises. Musk previously said a Tesla would drive from Los Angeles to New York using the Full Self Driving feature by the end of 2019. The company didn’t meet that goal. So, it will be interesting to see the state of Autopilot at the end of 2020.

 

[diplomat33]

Do you have a source for that? All I see is that the SuperVision is capable of FSD (in terms of the sensors).

SuperVision is promising hands-free highway and hands-free city driving. And SuperVision uses Mobileye's full 360 degree camera vision, which is the same perception as FSD. It also uses the same FSD driving policy, what Mobileye calls RSS.

And this marketing video from a year ago, is claiming full autonomy with camera only, with lidar coming later for true redundancy.

So it certainly looks to me that Mobileye is deploying their FSD software.

 

[Eno Deb]

Makes sense, but even for simple features like staying within the lane, the Mobileye equipped cars are far behind Tesla.

Is that so? Cadillac's Super Cruise system uses Mobileye, and their lane centering is excellent.

 

[Singuy]

Ok. Let's compare 2020 to 2020 to be fair.

This is what Mobileye can do TODAY in 2020:

Tesla's Autopilot in 2020 is not as good as this. We know this because Elon has said that they are still working on "making turns" and "handling roudabouts" and it is not reliable yet for deployment while we see in the demo that Mobileye has complex city driving already very reliable.

Every time you hear Elon speak, he means working on roundabouts and making turns EVERYWHERE IN THE WORLD. Don't forget these mobile eye cars are not deployed in the millions with non engineers behind the wheel, and mobile eye have no certainty that what they show in this demo can work in my town, or other people's town all across the world.

 

[powertoold]

Is that so? Cadillac's Super Cruise system uses Mobileye, and their lane centering is excellent.

Great, show us some stress tests, like on a mountain road or something with sharper turns (there are 1000+ of these videos for AP)

 

[powertoold]

So it certainly looks to me that Mobileye is deploying their FSD software.

You said Mobileye is ready to deploy their FSD to consumers, so I'd like to see where they say that.

 

[diplomat33]

You said Mobileye is ready to deploy their FSD to consumers, so I'd like to see where they say that.

I think it is implied in the SuperVision announcement here:

It says surround camera vision, hands-free highway driving, including lane change, highway to highway navigation, on/off ramp and urban driving and automated parking as well automatic preventative steering and braking to avoid unsafe and emergency situations.

What else would that be other than Mobileye's FSD software? Unless you think that Mobileye has two distinct software stacks and the hands-free driving will use the "not FSD" software stack?

 

[Eno Deb]

Great, show us some stress tests

You made the claim, how about you present evidence that lane centering on all Mobileye equipped cars is "far behind Tesla"?

like on a mountain road or something with sharper turns (there are 1000+ of these videos for AP)

There are also plenty of videos showing it fail. All that proves is that lots of Tesla drivers are apparently avid Youtubers. Besides, my manual says I'm only supposed to use Autopilot on limited access roads.

 

[powertoold]

You made the claim, how about you present evidence that lane centering on all Mobileye equipped cars is "far behind Tesla"?

Lol

 

[powertoold]

I think it is implied in the SuperVision announcement here:

It says surround camera vision, hands-free highway driving, including lane change, highway to highway navigation, on/off ramp and urban driving and automated parking as well automatic preventative steering and braking to avoid unsafe and emergency situations.

What else would that be other than Mobileye's FSD software? Unless you think that Mobileye has two distinct software stacks and the hands-free driving will use the "not FSD" software stack?

Where in any of that picture does it mention FSD?

 

[ChrML]

Self-driving is still an arena where no products have really materialized on the market yet. Obviously because it's really hard (especially from 99% to 100%), but the rewards are insane. Just consider robo-taxis replacing every taxi driver and delivery truck in the world, Amazon automatically packing and deploying a car to your house with your delivery when you press the "Order"- button etc...

Since this technology gains very little value until it's finished, it requires a lot of investment. And every kind of investment project requires regular proof of progress, to convince the investors to invest more. This is a race where the marketing/hype around the company's technology is extremely important, and ultimately the most convincing company will get the most money.

At the moment no solution is ready, but there's a lot of hype. For Elon it's always about the next software revision that will blow your mind, until it's there and it does not, because there will be another update soon. For MobileEye it's about convincing they're the leaders by giving impressive demos. Common denominator is that neither system is ready, or there would be self-driving cars today.

 

[diplomat33]

Where in any of that picture does it mention FSD?

It doesn't mention FSD by name. But it mentions FSD features like hands-free driving and automatic parking.

 

[powertoold]

hands-free driving

Do you think they are implying level 3? If so, why don't they just say level 3?

 

[diplomat33]

Do you think they are implying level 3? If so, why don't they just say level 3?

Mobileye has been clear that they are developing 2 independent FSD systems, one camera-only system and one lidar system and then combine them for true redundancy to do L4/L5. And Mobileye has said that they don't consider camera-only to be safe enough to be L4/L5. So my guess is that Mobileye will release the camera-only FSD but still require driver attention. They will use a driver facing camera to offer hands-free while still monitoring driver attention. Once they add the lidar FSD, then Mobileye will consider it redundant enough to be safe enough to remove driver attention and then they will declare it L4/L5.

 

[powertoold]

Mobileye has been clear that they are developing 2 independent FSD systems, one camera-only system and one lidar system and then combine them for true redundancy to do L4/L5. And Mobileye has said that they don't consider camera-only to be safe enough to be L4/L5. So my guess is that Mobileye will release the camera-only FSD but still require driver attention. They will use a driver facing camera to offer hands-free while still monitoring driver attention. Once they add the lidar FSD, then Mobileye will consider it redundant enough to be safe enough to remove driver attention and then they will declare it L4/L5.

I've heard about this before, but I was referring to the SuperVision system graphic above, where it says hands free driving. Do you think or know if this is level 3?

My impression of the Supervision system coming to the Zero Concept car next yr is that it is simply a driver assistance system, with "FSD capable" hardware.

 

[diplomat33]

I've heard about this before, but I was referring to the SuperVision system graphic above, where it says hands free driving. Do you think or know if this is level 3?

My impression of the Supervision system coming to the Zero Concept car next yr is that it is simply a driver assistance system, with "FSD capable" hardware.

I don't know if it will be L3. It might be or it might just be "hands-free L2+". It could be similar to Tesla's "FSD" that requires driver supervision. It could do a lot of driving on highway and city streets but still require driver supervision.

 

[dhanson865]

If I were the moderator I'd take all this mobileye fanboy stuff and move it into it's own thread. Since I'm not I'll just ignore any more "but they put out a demo" posts for the next year or so.

 

[powertoold]

Although these responses from Elon are always cryptic, this sort of dialogue between users and Elon adds to the enjoyment of owning AP/FSD. It's a major differentiator between Tesla and other FSD developers.

 

[diplomat33]

View attachment 592862

Although these responses from Elon are always cryptic, this sort of dialogue between users and Elon adds to the enjoyment of owning AP/FSD. It's a major differentiator between Tesla and other FSD developers.

I think by "new version coming soon", Elon is referring to the upcoming rewrite.

 

[powertoold]

I think by "new version coming soon", Elon is referring to the upcoming rewrite.

I don't think so, seems like such a minor fix for a whole rewrite, but then again, like I said, cryptic lol

 

[diplomat33]

I don't think so, seems like such a minor fix for a whole rewrite, but then again, like I said, cryptic lol

Well, considering how foundational the rewrite is, I imagine it will solve a lot of different problems. So when the twitter posts mention these issues, Elon is basically saying "yeah, the rewrite will fix that". But of course, the rewrite will do more than just fix that problem. That's how I read it.