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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
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- Tags
- elon is an ass
Do you have an X as a daily driver?
The 3rd row with 7-seat config is cramped, and also isolated because the seats are not elevated and the roof slopes a lot. My kids don’t even like being back there. And you think an even smaller Y will be surprisingly good? Maybe if you need to haul some of your kid’s friends in a pinch across town. I would rather prefer the Y as a proper 5-seat CUV with the biggest trunk space in class.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
3rd row is optional so you can have your preference. X 3rd row is pretty good by European stds. You should try sitting on my commuter train to London to see what we put up with.... (if you can get a seat that is). Possibly not the best thread for this - time will tell.
How do you know whether the Y 3rd row is pretty good by European stds? Even most of us in the US hasn’t seen the 3rd row yet.
You should try standing on a commuter train in Asia....if you can even get inside to begin with. But then again, this is how even crappy BART in the SF Bay Area is these days during commute hours. At times without A/C in the summer, and without proper air circulation in the winter. Crammed in like sardines all the time. Ugh...just imagining next time I need to take BART.
Last edited:
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
So with analyst estimate being ca -0.4 non-gaap loss and ca 6.4B revenue it seems to look that they are close to the local consensus here with the more realistic ones being a slight miss? Unless TSLA does something interesting for the S&P inclusion?
Unless ASP and/or margins surprises significantly to the upside, It would seem like Tesla would need to reverse-kitchen sink Q2 too have any hope for S&P inclusion (eg: sell all the remaining credits & recognise large amount of deferred revenue from FSD), which doesn’t seem likely.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think a non-gaap profit is a possibility.That should push the SP up some.
Free cash flow being much better has higher possibility, but I’m not sure whether it can push the SP higher in the short term.
To get to gaap profit or enough gaap profit for SP inclusion is essentially a $500M profit improvement from consensus. That would have to come from some kind of windfall one time revenue.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
They've done that once in 2016 - but the whole SolarCity fight overshadowed the profitable quarter IIRC.
Elon is very quiet about Tesla on Twitter - most of the tweets are about SpaceX - which is uncharacteristic. Before the two recent profitable quarters (Q3, Q4) he was clearly more upbeat. FWIW.
We shouldn’t discount what effect good guidance might have on the share price. Even if the GAAP loss happens as expected, if they guide for something like 100k+ deliveries and mention Q3 as “profitable” with a good degree of confidence, then the share price reaction may be quite positive.
I think the credibility already gained in Q2 by deliveries coming in above the low end of guidance is actually quite significant, which is why I believe any guidance provided in the earnings letter today will be pivotal too the near term share price trend.
I think the credibility already gained in Q2 by deliveries coming in above the low end of guidance is actually quite significant, which is why I believe any guidance provided in the earnings letter today will be pivotal too the near term share price trend.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Here is what factset avg is today (according to D J News).
EPS : -0.35
Rev : $6.47B
FCF : $136M
bloomberg updated their adjusted eps to:
-.309
the mean was -.309
the median was -.415
across 26 analyst estimates
high was .95 low was -1.11
other bloomberg reported values remained the same as my last post
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
IB newsfeed is claiming -0.48 as the consensus... weird, hard to find what the line is actually that it's compared to...
M3BlueGeorgia
Active Member
Positive cashflow of half a billion dollars (operating cashflow) in Q2 - 19. $5B of cash-on-hand
Maintaining the margin on vehicles at 19%
Good news is Tesla have focused on growth rather than placate Wall Street idiots baying for short-term profits.
They have achieved Model 3 production rates of 7,000 units a week and expect (subject to the China factory coming on-line) to manufacture 500,000 vehicles over the next year.
Maintaining the margin on vehicles at 19%
Good news is Tesla have focused on growth rather than placate Wall Street idiots baying for short-term profits.
They have achieved Model 3 production rates of 7,000 units a week and expect (subject to the China factory coming on-line) to manufacture 500,000 vehicles over the next year.
well that was embarrassingly off!!
but @bdy0627 and @EVNow right on the FCF
man, 400mm + is still a big number.
they have their work cut out for them. and with the service issues multiplying ‘exponentially’ as cars roll off and we get deeper into the early majority curve, they’ll need to spend on that, as much as they need to on delivery logistics
they better chalk it up to a learning experience.
q1 mess made climbing back up the mountain that much harder. couldn’t get it done inside a quarter’s window. they’re on right track, though.
just did a very fast update with the numbers in the letter. showing actual vs my forecast. note my error on operating income was ~15m, or ~0.2% of revenue. most of my combined error comes below the operating income line. so all in all it was a very reasonable forecast.
a few comments:
they have not disclosed any facts about s/x or 3 margins so i have to make assumptions there.
there was a huge drop in s/x asp, less than 89k excluding credits (which are included in my asp values for s/x/3).
i believe storage may have turned to positive gross margin and it's a definite positive highlight in this report.
services gross margin improved by ~9%, but they're saying it's due to exclusion of one-time items.
solarcity is sort of a disaster. kind of annoying how far down it's gone in what should be a seasonally good quarter.
it will take a monster q3 (> $2.05 gaap eps) to get into the s&p 500. not impossible but perhaps nearly so.
the credit sales bump in q1 appears to be one time as this quarter's credits have reverted to the historical norms i mentioned previously. i view it as an analytical error to take a one-time jump in the absence of some explanation and extrapolate it into the future due to other facts that we can't fully understand (fca agreement). i only mention this because i have seen this happen numerous times as people review tesla numbers.
they've provided dramatically little in the way of guidance. this "simplified approach" seems like it will increase uncertainty.
[TD2]
actual
[/TD2][TD2]
luv est
[/TD2][TD2]
tsla
[/TD2][TD2]
tsla
[/TD2]
[TD2]
Jun-19
[/TD2][TD2]
Jun-19
[/TD2][TD2]
Mar-19
[/TD2][TD2]
Dec-18
[/TD2]
[TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]8,750[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2]
[TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]8,900[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2]
[TD2]
17,722
[/TD2][TD2]
17,650
[/TD2][TD2]
12,091
[/TD2][TD2]
27,607
[/TD2]
[TD2]
77,634
[/TD2][TD2]
77,550
[/TD2][TD2]
50,900
[/TD2][TD2]
63,359
[/TD2]
[TD2]
72,531
[/TD2][TD2]
72,531
[/TD2][TD2]
62,950
[/TD2][TD2]
60,000
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.06
[/TD2][TD2]
0.10
[/TD2][TD2]
-
[/TD2][TD2]
-
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.10
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.13
[/TD2]
[TD2]
88.95
[/TD2][TD2]
98.00
[/TD2][TD2]
102.00
[/TD2][TD2]
106.00
[/TD2]
[TD2]
51.20
[/TD2][TD2]
53.00
[/TD2][TD2]
56.98
[/TD2][TD2]
55.75
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1.17
[/TD2][TD2]
1.30
[/TD2][TD2]
3.18
[/TD2][TD2]
1.04
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,414,453[/TD2][TD2]1,543,108[/TD2][TD2]1,094,256[/TD2][TD2]2,540,646[/TD2]
[TD2]3,753,574[/TD2][TD2]3,699,135[/TD2][TD2]2,900,073[/TD2][TD2]3,532,057[/TD2]
[TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-501,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,412[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,376,389
[/TD2][TD2]
5,482,243
[/TD2][TD2]
3,723,861
[/TD2][TD2]
6,323,219
[/TD2]
[TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]133,950[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2]
[TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]235,125[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2]
[TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]593,079[/TD2][TD2]535,000[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2]
[TD2]
6,349,676
[/TD2][TD2]
6,398,318
[/TD2][TD2]
4,541,464
[/TD2][TD2]
7,225,873
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,202,285[/TD2][TD2]1,257,633[/TD2][TD2]936,450[/TD2][TD2]1,850,532[/TD2]
[TD2]3,051,478[/TD2][TD2]3,014,795[/TD2][TD2]2,328,759[/TD2][TD2]2,807,985[/TD2]
[TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]130,500[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-409,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,360,085
[/TD2][TD2]
4,402,928
[/TD2][TD2]
2,973,301
[/TD2][TD2]
4,786,248
[/TD2]
[TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]160,740[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2]
[TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]189,276[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2]
[TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2]
[TD2]716,022[/TD2][TD2]695,500[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,428,630
[/TD2][TD2]
5,475,444
[/TD2][TD2]
3,975,721
[/TD2][TD2]
5,782,973
[/TD2]
[TD2]
921,046
[/TD2][TD2]
922,874
[/TD2][TD2]
565,743
[/TD2][TD2]
1,442,900
[/TD2]
[TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]14.4%[/TD2][TD2]27.2%[/TD2]
[TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]19.7%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2]
[TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]42.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2]
[TD2]19.4%[/TD2][TD2]22.2%[/TD2][TD2]21.8%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2]
[TD2]19.4%[/TD2][TD2]21.5%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2]
[TD2]18.7%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]19.7%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]19.6%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2]
[TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-20.0%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2]
[TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-20.7%[/TD2][TD2]-30.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2]
[TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2]
[TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]575,000[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2]
[TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2]
[TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2]
[TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,088,504
[/TD2][TD2]
1,075,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,087,574
[/TD2][TD2]
1,029,364
[/TD2]
[TD2]
-167,458
[/TD2][TD2]
-152,126
[/TD2][TD2]
-521,831
[/TD2][TD2]
413,536
[/TD2]
[TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]17,000[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2]
[TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-115,000[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2]
[TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2]
[TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
-369,831
[/TD2][TD2]
-277,376
[/TD2][TD2]
-644,772
[/TD2][TD2]
231,956
[/TD2]
[TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]23,000[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2]
[TD2]
-389,262
[/TD2][TD2]
-300,376
[/TD2][TD2]
-667,645
[/TD2][TD2]
210,078
[/TD2]
[TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2]
[TD2]
-408,334
[/TD2][TD2]
-325,376
[/TD2][TD2]
-702,135
[/TD2][TD2]
139,483
[/TD2]
[TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]176,000[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2]
[TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]176,000[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2]
[TD2]
-2.31
[/TD2][TD2]
-1.85
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.06
[/TD2][TD2]
0.78
[/TD2]
[TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-325,376[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2]
[TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]210,000[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-115,376[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2]
[TD2]
-1.12
[/TD2][TD2]
-0.66
[/TD2][TD2]
-2.85
[/TD2][TD2]
1.93
[/TD2]
a few comments:
they have not disclosed any facts about s/x or 3 margins so i have to make assumptions there.
there was a huge drop in s/x asp, less than 89k excluding credits (which are included in my asp values for s/x/3).
i believe storage may have turned to positive gross margin and it's a definite positive highlight in this report.
services gross margin improved by ~9%, but they're saying it's due to exclusion of one-time items.
solarcity is sort of a disaster. kind of annoying how far down it's gone in what should be a seasonally good quarter.
it will take a monster q3 (> $2.05 gaap eps) to get into the s&p 500. not impossible but perhaps nearly so.
the credit sales bump in q1 appears to be one time as this quarter's credits have reverted to the historical norms i mentioned previously. i view it as an analytical error to take a one-time jump in the absence of some explanation and extrapolate it into the future due to other facts that we can't fully understand (fca agreement). i only mention this because i have seen this happen numerous times as people review tesla numbers.
they've provided dramatically little in the way of guidance. this "simplified approach" seems like it will increase uncertainty.
| … |
| … |
| s deliveries |
| x deliveries |
| s+x deliveries |
| 3 deliveries |
| 3 production |
| lease 3s % veh |
| lease s/x % veh |
| avg price s+x |
| avg price model 3 |
| non-zev credits per delivery |
| revenue |
| auto sales ex 3 |
| auto sales mod 3 |
| auto leasing |
| 1 time revenue |
| zev credits |
| total auto |
| energy storage |
| solarcity |
| maxwell/grohmann |
| services/other |
| total revenue |
| cost of revenue |
| auto sales ex 3 |
| auto sales mod 3 |
| auto leasing |
| 1 time cogs |
| total auto |
| energy storage |
| solarcity |
| maxwell/grohmann |
| services & other |
| total cost of rev |
| gross profit |
| auto ex 3 gm |
| auto gaap gm |
| auto lease gm |
| auto gaap ex 3 gm |
| auto-zev ex 3 gm |
| model 3 gm |
| auto-zev incl 3 gm |
| storage gm |
| scty gm |
| maxwell/grohmann |
| services gm |
| opex |
| tesla r&d |
| tesla sg&a |
| 1 time costs |
| solarcity r&d |
| solarcity sg&a |
| total opex |
| op income |
| interest inc |
| interest exp |
| scty interest |
| other income exp |
| 1time scty gain |
| pretax income |
| income tax |
| net income |
| non-cont int. |
| net inc to common |
| basic shares |
| diluted shares |
| diluted gaap eps |
| gaap net income |
| + stock based comp |
| + one time scty |
| non-gaap net income |
| non-gaap diluted eps |
Doggydogworld
Active Member
450m inventory liquidation.
Thanks to 1.8b new debt and 3.7m new shares sold.
@luvb2b you aren’t using the $50k model 3 ASP from the letter?
I was very encouraged by this comment on gross margin:
I was very encouraged by this comment on gross margin:
Last edited:
That's the GAAP loss. The number to compare with estimates is the non-GAAP, $-1.12/share.
my asp includes credits, which are ~1.2k per vehicle
