Near-future quarterly financial projections

[Doggydogworld]

just did a very fast update with the numbers in the letter. showing actual vs my forecast. note my error on operating income was ~15m, or ~0.2% of revenue. most of my combined error comes below the operating income line. so all in all it was a very reasonable forecast.

a few comments:

they have not disclosed any facts about s/x or 3 margins so i have to make assumptions there.
there was a huge drop in s/x asp, less than 89k excluding credits (which are included in my asp values for s/x/3).
i believe storage may have turned to positive gross margin and it's a definite positive highlight in this report.
services gross margin improved by ~9%, but they're saying it's due to exclusion of one-time items.
solarcity is sort of a disaster. kind of annoying how far down it's gone in what should be a seasonally good quarter.
it will take a monster q3 (> $2.05 gaap eps) to get into the s&p 500. not impossible but perhaps nearly so.

the credit sales bump in q1 appears to be one time as this quarter's credits have reverted to the historical norms i mentioned previously. i view it as an analytical error to take a one-time jump in the absence of some explanation and extrapolate it into the future due to other facts that we can't fully understand (fca agreement). i only mention this because i have seen this happen numerous times as people review tesla numbers.

they've provided dramatically little in the way of guidance. this "simplified approach" seems like it will increase uncertainty.

…

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease 3s % veh

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

non-zev credits per delivery

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time revenue

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

maxwell/grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

maxwell/grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto ex 3 gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] actual [/TD2][TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]8,750[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]8,900[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 17,650 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 77,550 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 72,531 [/TD2][TD2] 72,531 [/TD2][TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2] [TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.13 [/TD2] [TD2] 88.95 [/TD2][TD2] 98.00 [/TD2][TD2] 102.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2] [TD2] 51.20 [/TD2][TD2] 53.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.98 [/TD2][TD2] 55.75 [/TD2] [TD2] 1.17 [/TD2][TD2] 1.30 [/TD2][TD2] 3.18 [/TD2][TD2] 1.04 [/TD2] [TD2]1,414,453[/TD2][TD2]1,543,108[/TD2][TD2]1,094,256[/TD2][TD2]2,540,646[/TD2] [TD2]3,753,574[/TD2][TD2]3,699,135[/TD2][TD2]2,900,073[/TD2][TD2]3,532,057[/TD2] [TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-501,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,412[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2] [TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 5,482,243 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]133,950[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]235,125[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]593,079[/TD2][TD2]535,000[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 6,398,318 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]1,202,285[/TD2][TD2]1,257,633[/TD2][TD2]936,450[/TD2][TD2]1,850,532[/TD2] [TD2]3,051,478[/TD2][TD2]3,014,795[/TD2][TD2]2,328,759[/TD2][TD2]2,807,985[/TD2] [TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]130,500[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-409,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 4,402,928 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]160,740[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]189,276[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]716,022[/TD2][TD2]695,500[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 5,475,444 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 922,874 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]14.4%[/TD2][TD2]27.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]19.7%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]42.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]19.4%[/TD2][TD2]22.2%[/TD2][TD2]21.8%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2] [TD2]19.4%[/TD2][TD2]21.5%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2] [TD2]18.7%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]19.7%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2] [TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]19.6%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-20.0%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-20.7%[/TD2][TD2]-30.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]575,000[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,075,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -152,126 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]17,000[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-115,000[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -277,376 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]23,000[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -300,376 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -325,376 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]176,000[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]176,000[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -1.85 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-325,376[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]210,000[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-115,376[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -0.66 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

You nailed the "one-time" nature of the emissions credits, and I was way off. Good work!

I think the letter's 50k Model 3 ASP may include regulatory credits. That would put S/X ASP at 94k+.

I get ~200m Storage Rev at 0% gross margin and ~170m Solar Rev @ 25% gm. Q2 is about peak for generation, should be close to 100m, and I figure almost all the 29 MW of new deployments were sales at close to $3/W. Solar gross margin used to be 30%, and still is for the lease portfolio, but they've cut prices on new installs.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

This is not a good thing.​

assuming 19% is including credits this is probably a couple % bump up from the 15% after credits of Q1, marginal improvement. Still far from the goal.
​

They cut capex guidance. Again.

Is this a particularly bad thing? What growth is it hindering at this point? or just they will have to spend more in Q3 and Q4 to hit the 1.5-2B annual target?

if they cut back on capex now does it affect depreciation in the cash flow statement at a later date?

​

They have not achieved 7k/week. And they dropped all mention of Musk's 500k in 2019 claim that led the SEC to press for contempt.

Seems like musk just guided for 8.3-8.6k 3's a week with about 1.5 5/X, wonder what the hinderance was to get beyond 7.5k 3's before?


So it seems to me this quarter a positive to take away are SG&A + services* has gone down or stayed level even with noticeable expansion globally since Jan 1. Will be interesting to see if this holds through out the year, if so it means the 6B annual figure could be realistic.

*granted this did say it included one time items so services will be something to watch next quarter

 

[EVNow]

my asp includes credits, which are ~1.2k per vehicle

I'm assuming the $50k includes credits. The, S&X ASP comes to $95k (like I had assumed).

BTW, the big difference for my calculations are
- 50k M3 ASP vs 53k
- 117m restructuring costs

Even though the reg credits decreased, it seemed to have not mattered that much, because the margin was close to what I assumed (non-lease 17.7% vs assumed 18%).

ps :

 

[tmoz]

My take away is that you guys are in the ballpark with your estimates. Hard to get much closer without total inside knowledge.
I'll call it "good job" done.

 

[luvb2b]

I'm assuming the $50k includes credits. The, S&X ASP comes to $95k (like I had assumed).

generally the term "average selling price" refers to a price at which a product was sold to a customer. the credit sales are going to some 3rd party that is not the buyer of the vehicle. also notice they are saying asp was stable. recall in q1 they had some one time sales of autopilot and fsd etc. not having a split-out for it i included it in my model 3 and s/x asp, which were likely too high by a 1-2k. then you still have to take out another 3.2k for credits to get to a statement where you can claim 50k is a "stable asp".

tl;dr: credits most likely not included in reported 50k asp.

 

[neroden]

Well, I think the numbers confirm that Tesla has been steadily reducing production costs like they said on the phone call, and like I expected (that's what they're good at). I'm just not worried about that at all. I'm literally only worried about one thing for Tesla right now, and that's their communications disaster.

 

[EVNow]

generally the term "average selling price" refers to a price at which a product was sold to a customer. the credit sales are going to some 3rd party that is not the buyer of the vehicle. also notice they are saying asp was stable. recall in q1 they had some one time sales of autopilot and fsd etc. not having a split-out for it i included it in my model 3 and s/x asp, which were likely too high by a 1-2k. then you still have to take out another 3.2k for credits to get to a statement where you can claim 50k is a "stable asp".

tl;dr: credits most likely not included in reported 50k asp.

I agree with your general idea - but my guess is they do include credits and parts of AP/FSD they recognize as revenue. That is what they have always done with ASP and margins.

Ofcourse FSD (even one time) and likely some of AP too, are in deferred, so shouldn't count towards ASP. When they do recognize that revenue (probably over several quarters) we'll see higher profit - and probably reported higher ASP (which would again be wrong)..

I wish there was a way to get these basic questions answered by Tesla. May be @DaveT has some contacts ?

 

[EVNow]

I posted this on the main thread - but probably belongs here.

Wondering why there is a difference between non-gaap loss reported at the top $167M and on page 9 of the letter. There is a difference of $31M.

At the Top :

Gaap : ($408M) EPS : (2.31)
non-Gaap : ($167M) EPS : (0.94) <-- This is actually GAAP operating loss.

On Page 9 :

Gaap : ($408M) EPS : (2.31)
non-Gaap : ($198M) EPS : (1.12)


ps : Got it. First page is GAAP Operating Loss and Page 9 is non-gaap loss.

 

[Doggydogworld]

generally the term "average selling price" refers to a price at which a product was sold to a customer. the credit sales are going to some 3rd party that is not the buyer of the vehicle.

True, but actual customer sale price includes FSD, free Supercharging and internet connectivity which Tesla defers (at least partially). These may offset, e.g.:

50k - Customer price
(2k) - Deferred revs related to Q2 sales
1.2k - Reg credits
0.8k - Recognition of deferred revs from prior periods
------
50.0k - Revenue recognized in Q2

also notice they are saying asp was stable.

The letter says: "During the quarter, …. Model 3 average selling price (ASP) was stable at approximately $50,000." That doesn't necessarily mean it was 50k in Q1. The Q1 numbers indicate it was higher (the FSD fire sale produced cash but no Q1 revenue). The mix also skewed higher in Q1, with SR+ and final price cuts not hitting until 2/28 and not at all in Europe.​

Is this a particularly bad thing? What growth is it hindering at this point? or just they will have to spend more in Q3 and Q4 to hit the 1.5-2B annual target?

It's a capital intensive business. Tesla's factories cost as much as anyone else's. Shanghai sounds like a Buffalo-style deal, mostly funded by the government. If they can keep doing that, low capex is no problem.​

Seems like musk just guided for 8.3-8.6k 3's a week with about 1.5 5/X, wonder what the hinderance was to get beyond 7.5k 3's before?

IMHO it's 8.5k Model 3s at Fremont + Shanghai at yearend. I know that's not what he said, but he often misspeaks.​

 

[Thekiwi]

assuming 19% is including credits this is probably a couple % bump up from the 15% after credits of Q1, marginal improvement. Still far from the goal.
​

Is this a particularly bad thing? What growth is it hindering at this point? or just they will have to spend more in Q3 and Q4 to hit the 1.5-2B annual target?

if they cut back on capex now does it affect depreciation in the cash flow statement at a later date?

​

Seems like musk just guided for 8.3-8.6k 3's a week with about 1.5 5/X, wonder what the hinderance was to get beyond 7.5k 3's before?


So it seems to me this quarter a positive to take away are SG&A + services* has gone down or stayed level even with noticeable expansion globally since Jan 1. Will be interesting to see if this holds through out the year, if so it means the 6B annual figure could be realistic.

*granted this did say it included one time items so services will be something to watch next quarter

i wonder if the increase in 3 production may have something to do with the paint shop and the reduction in S/X production. Now that S/X are in a somewhat lower weekly rate, perhaps they have been able to run more 3s through it.

 

[luvb2b]

here's a relatively optimistic look-ahead to q3. i don't believe the numbers i put for deliveries for model 3; i am thinking they will be lower than what this model shows. i gave them 20% gm on model 3, higher s/x gross margin, higher storage and services gross margins too.

reduced the one-timers and normalized credit sales a bit. all this and the best i can get to is ~240m gaap net loss. they'll be lucky to get to non-gaap positive. i'm guessing we're spending another quarter watching them walk back profit forecasts.

i've not spent a great deal of time on this and it's late so feel free to kick it around and post your comments.

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s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

lease 3s % veh

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

non-zev credits per delivery

revenue

auto sales s/x

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time revenue

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

maxwell/grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

maxwell/grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto model s/x gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]7,500[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]7,500[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 15,000 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 78,000 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.07 [/TD2][TD2] 0.06 [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2] [TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.13 [/TD2] [TD2] 89.00 [/TD2][TD2] 88.95 [/TD2][TD2] 104.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2] [TD2] 50.20 [/TD2][TD2] 51.20 [/TD2][TD2] 56.55 [/TD2][TD2] 55.75 [/TD2] [TD2] 1.20 [/TD2][TD2] 1.17 [/TD2][TD2] 3.18 [/TD2][TD2] 1.04 [/TD2] [TD2]1,197,899[/TD2][TD2]1,414,453[/TD2][TD2]1,115,712[/TD2][TD2]2,540,646[/TD2] [TD2]3,641,508[/TD2][TD2]3,753,574[/TD2][TD2]2,878,617[/TD2][TD2]3,532,057[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-501,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]10,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,412[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2] [TD2] 5,060,500 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]256,650[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]111,558[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]593,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,085,708 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]994,256[/TD2][TD2]1,202,285[/TD2][TD2]953,680[/TD2][TD2]1,850,532[/TD2] [TD2]2,913,206[/TD2][TD2]3,051,478[/TD2][TD2]2,311,529[/TD2][TD2]2,807,985[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-409,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,017,231 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]228,419[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]91,478[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]741,750[/TD2][TD2]716,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,105,877 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 979,831 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]17.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.5%[/TD2][TD2]27.2%[/TD2] [TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]22.2%[/TD2][TD2]19.4%[/TD2][TD2]21.7%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2] [TD2]21.6%[/TD2][TD2]19.4%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2] [TD2]20.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.7%[/TD2][TD2]19.7%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2] [TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]19.6%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-15.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.7%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] -16,328 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -197,945 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -217,945 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -237,945 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.33 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-237,945[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]-28,082[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] -0.16 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

 

[Sancho]

here's a relatively optimistic look-ahead to q3. i don't believe the numbers i put for deliveries for model 3; i am thinking they will be lower than what this model shows. i gave them 20% gm on model 3, higher s/x gross margin, higher storage and services gross margins too.

reduced the one-timers and normalized credit sales a bit. all this and the best i can get to is ~240m gaap net loss. they'll be lucky to get to non-gaap positive. i'm guessing we're spending another quarter watching them walk back profit forecasts.

i've not spent a great deal of time on this and it's late so feel free to kick it around and post your comments.

…

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

lease 3s % veh

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

non-zev credits per delivery

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time revenue

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

maxwell/grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

maxwell/grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto ex 3 gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]7,500[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]7,500[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 15,000 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 78,000 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.07 [/TD2][TD2] 0.06 [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2] [TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.13 [/TD2] [TD2] 89.00 [/TD2][TD2] 88.95 [/TD2][TD2] 104.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2] [TD2] 50.20 [/TD2][TD2] 51.20 [/TD2][TD2] 56.55 [/TD2][TD2] 55.75 [/TD2] [TD2] 1.20 [/TD2][TD2] 1.17 [/TD2][TD2] 3.18 [/TD2][TD2] 1.04 [/TD2] [TD2]1,197,899[/TD2][TD2]1,414,453[/TD2][TD2]1,115,712[/TD2][TD2]2,540,646[/TD2] [TD2]3,641,508[/TD2][TD2]3,753,574[/TD2][TD2]2,878,617[/TD2][TD2]3,532,057[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-501,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]10,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,412[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2] [TD2] 5,060,500 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]256,650[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]111,558[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]593,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,085,708 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]994,256[/TD2][TD2]1,202,285[/TD2][TD2]953,680[/TD2][TD2]1,850,532[/TD2] [TD2]2,913,206[/TD2][TD2]3,051,478[/TD2][TD2]2,311,529[/TD2][TD2]2,807,985[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-409,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,017,231 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]228,419[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]91,478[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]741,750[/TD2][TD2]716,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,105,877 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 979,831 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]17.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.5%[/TD2][TD2]27.2%[/TD2] [TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]22.2%[/TD2][TD2]19.4%[/TD2][TD2]21.7%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2] [TD2]21.6%[/TD2][TD2]19.4%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2] [TD2]20.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.7%[/TD2][TD2]19.7%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2] [TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]19.6%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-15.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.7%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] -16,328 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -197,945 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -217,945 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -237,945 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.33 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-237,945[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]-28,082[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] -0.16 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

What’s your basis for sequentially lower S & X deliveries? Q3 is a seasonally higher quarter and the first full quarter of S & X refresh.

 

[luvb2b]

that tax credit and inventory purge pushed q2 units up. you can rework numbers easily with a higher assumption.

What’s your basis for sequentially lower S & X deliveries? Q3 is a seasonally higher quarter and the first full quarter of S & X refresh.

 

[EVNow]

that tax credit and inventory purge pushed q2 units up. you can rework numbers easily with a higher assumption.

Looks like they sold “majority” of inventory s,x. In other words, they still have a lot of them. But this quarter they can deliver refreshed s,x to all markets for 3 months. Hoping for larger delivery and higher ASP and margin.

 

[neroden]

here's a relatively optimistic look-ahead to q3. i don't believe the numbers i put for deliveries for model 3; i am thinking they will be lower than what this model shows.

OK, production side, that I follow pretty carefully.

They really do believe that they've got everything going at 7K/week, and I do think the earnings release indicated that they were actually targeting higher numbers for the future. ("All manufacturing equipment in Fremont has demonstrated capability of a 7,000 Model 3 vehicles per week run rate, which we continue to work to increase.")

There don't seem to be major plans for downtime on the Model 3 lines in Q3. If they've actually reached 6500/week, that's 84500 production; even with some building up of the pipeline, deliveries should be in the 80K range. If you instead assume 2 weeks downtime (likely excessive for Q3) and 7K rate when operating, you get 77K.

So I actually do believe your 78K number for model 3, and I think it is likely to be low.

I think your S/X number is also too low. I'm expecting circa 18000.

i gave them 20% gm on model 3, higher s/x gross margin, higher storage and services gross margins too.

I think your GMs are too high, though. I'd stick with same margins as Q2 on 3 and S/X. Service gross margin *needs* to drop in order to provide reasonable service.

Storage is kind of hard to calculate (we have no clear insight on the gross margins due to mixing it with solar sales & leases), but it is showing massive QoQ growth rates, and your model suggests that Q3 will be the same as Q2. With battery cell restrictions being removed, I don't see why this would be the case. I would make a WAG that they'll actually be up to 300000 in revenue rather than your 257000

reduced the one-timers and normalized credit sales a bit. all this and the best i can get to is ~240m gaap net loss. they'll be lucky to get to non-gaap positive. i'm guessing we're spending another quarter watching them walk back profit forecasts.

i've not spent a great deal of time on this and it's late so feel free to kick it around and post your comments.

OK. Could you try assuming higher Model 3 production, higher Storage sales, and lower GMs?

If I assume 15% GM on Model S/X but also assume 18K cars, this raises profit by 13350.
If I assume 18.7% GM on Model 3 but also assume 80K cars, this lowers profit by 32128.
If I assume 300000 revenue on Storage and stick with your 11% GM assumption, which seems plausible at that scale, this raises profit by 4678.50.

So I guess my model looks even worse than yours. The key issue seems to be the GM on Model 3, which makes sense. To make up for the GM staying at 18.7% Tesla would have to push out about 5500 more cars than in your model, or about 84K Model 3s. To further reach non-GAAP profitability (still assuming GM of 18.7%), they'd have to push out an additional 3000, or about 87K Model 3s (actually 86414 based on this model, but that's excess precision).

Now, that's about 6648/week. Or 7000/week with 4 days downtime. Given what I've heard... I actually think this is possible in Q3. But it's also quite possible that they'll miss the target.

It's an economies of scale business, so it's all about the volume. Either way, Q3 will have substantial positive free cash flow. Depreciation & amortization is now over $500 million per quarter, capex is under $250 million per quarter (and it was emphasized that that is sustainable), so free cash flow is running $250 million ahead of non-GAAP profit, structurally (before timing effects like inventory and accounts payable/receivable).

So they are, as they said, self-funding. They also have the cash to pay off the November 2019 bond from two quarters' free cash flow, without inventory shenanigans. They have enough cash from the stock & bond issuance to easily pay off all the non-recourse debt which comes due this year, too, and still have working cash.

TLDR: They are structurally free cash flow positive by at least $200 million/quarter. To reach non-GAAP profit they need 87K Model 3s in Q3; we'll see in early September! Higher GM would of course improve matters.

P.S. For GAAP profit, however, due to the goofy stock-based-compensation accounting, they'd need 109K Model 3s in a quarter, which seems impossible.

 

[Thekiwi]

here's a relatively optimistic look-ahead to q3. i don't believe the numbers i put for deliveries for model 3; i am thinking they will be lower than what this model shows. i gave them 20% gm on model 3, higher s/x gross margin, higher storage and services gross margins too.

reduced the one-timers and normalized credit sales a bit. all this and the best i can get to is ~240m gaap net loss. they'll be lucky to get to non-gaap positive. i'm guessing we're spending another quarter watching them walk back profit forecasts.

i've not spent a great deal of time on this and it's late so feel free to kick it around and post your comments.

…

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

lease 3s % veh

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

non-zev credits per delivery

revenue

auto sales s/x

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time revenue

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

maxwell/grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

maxwell/grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto model s/x gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]7,500[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]7,500[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 15,000 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 78,000 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.07 [/TD2][TD2] 0.06 [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2] [TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.13 [/TD2] [TD2] 89.00 [/TD2][TD2] 88.95 [/TD2][TD2] 104.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2] [TD2] 50.20 [/TD2][TD2] 51.20 [/TD2][TD2] 56.55 [/TD2][TD2] 55.75 [/TD2] [TD2] 1.20 [/TD2][TD2] 1.17 [/TD2][TD2] 3.18 [/TD2][TD2] 1.04 [/TD2] [TD2]1,197,899[/TD2][TD2]1,414,453[/TD2][TD2]1,115,712[/TD2][TD2]2,540,646[/TD2] [TD2]3,641,508[/TD2][TD2]3,753,574[/TD2][TD2]2,878,617[/TD2][TD2]3,532,057[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-501,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]10,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,412[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2] [TD2] 5,060,500 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]256,650[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]111,558[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]593,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,085,708 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]994,256[/TD2][TD2]1,202,285[/TD2][TD2]953,680[/TD2][TD2]1,850,532[/TD2] [TD2]2,913,206[/TD2][TD2]3,051,478[/TD2][TD2]2,311,529[/TD2][TD2]2,807,985[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-409,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,017,231 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]228,419[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]91,478[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]741,750[/TD2][TD2]716,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,105,877 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 979,831 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]17.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.5%[/TD2][TD2]27.2%[/TD2] [TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]22.2%[/TD2][TD2]19.4%[/TD2][TD2]21.7%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2] [TD2]21.6%[/TD2][TD2]19.4%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2] [TD2]20.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.7%[/TD2][TD2]19.7%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2] [TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]19.6%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-15.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.7%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] -16,328 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -197,945 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -217,945 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -237,945 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.33 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-237,945[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]-28,082[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] -0.16 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

Tesla has said they expect sequential growth in deliveries and production, and continued to say that orders are higher in Q3 than they were at same point in Q2. I think that means at least 100k target. I get break even with 100k and a slight drop of 3 ASP, but with a slight increase in S/X ASP.

 

[Fact Checking]

Seems like musk just guided for 8.3-8.6k 3's a week with about 1.5 5/X, wonder what the hinderance was to get beyond 7.5k 3's before?

The main Model 3 production constraint was GF1 cell output: at 24 GWh/year they were limited to 5,900 LR packs per week, or 6,900/week at a 50%/50% LR/SR mix.

Elon said GF1 is at 28 GWh capacity now, which increases the production ceiling to around 8,100/week, assuming a 50%/50% take rate.

But that's with using none of those cells for storage, so the real numbers will be lower.

Presumably Panasonic will ramp up some more this year.

 

[Boomer19]

this really belongs here

reaching ~28GWh from ~23.5 in just a qtr is a nice diamond in rough

finally something going right on that front after qtrs of disappointment.

the cost of energy/storage is roughly same YoY and QoQ but the revenue is down YoY slightly, up ~12% since Q1

but storage deployed has doubled YoY and nearly doubled since Q1

then why no extra revenue from it?? i figured an increase in revenue from energy storage that would put us close to 7b in total rev rather than the ~6.4b #

i know i’m only talking about roughly 5-7% increase in total revenue,
but looking for help as to why i was wrong about this

 

[Doggydogworld]

this really belongs here

They basically shut down solar. Deployments are down 90% since the bailout.

For a long time solar sales held steady at around 50 MW per quarter while the leasing business wound down from 200+ MW to almost zero. But they finally shut down outbound sales, too. They still process web orders, but that's it.

The solar lease portfolio continues to produce ~300m/year revenue at a 30%-ish GAAP margin. It's very seasonal as the panels generate a lot more kWhs in summer than winter, so I figure ~60m in Q4 and Q1 vs. ~90m in Q2 and Q3. FWIW, here is my Q2 storage/solar breakdown vs. luvb2b's:

Revs
200 Storage 245
168 Solar 123

Margins
0% Storage 8.4%
25% Solar 18%

50 SG&A 90
20 R&D 30

 

[Spacemanspliff]

The main Model 3 production constraint was GF1 cell output: at 24 GWh/year they were limited to 5,900 LR packs per week, or 6,900/week at a 50%/50% LR/SR mix.

Elon said GF1 is at 28 GWh capacity now, which increases the production ceiling to around 8,100/week, assuming a 50%/50% take rate.

But that's with using none of those cells for storage, so the real numbers will be lower.

Presumably Panasonic will ramp up some more this year.

I don’t think it was batteries, Elon stated
5-7.5k weekly being relatively light cap ex wise but beyond 7.5k wasn’t possible without significant cap ex costs.

The paint shop is a more reasonable theory the kiwi threw out.