There doesn't seem to be much upside in discussing it. They can be spun to imply Tesla only exists due to subsidies. The deal could fall through, regulations could change, it distracts from the great story they now have of profitability. Etc.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
It's basically based on when they deliver it. For "lifetime free Supercharging" they estimate a value based on average lifetime and annual usage. Say it's 8 years at $250 per year. They subtract $2000 from the car's price and recognize $250/year for 8 years. They count a portion of Supercharger depreciation and operating cost each year as the COGS associated with this revenue.
Total deferred revenue is 2185m, about half current and half long-term. A bunch of this is RVG crap, I'll wait for the 10-Q before trying to guess how much.
500m deferred for EAP/FSD implies ~200k customers @ ~2.5k each. I was told US take rate was very high for EAP but low for FSD. That's consistent with 200k customers. I can believe they already recognized 60% of EAP revs, thus my 2.5k average. I think Model 3 EAP take rate was low, that's why they split it into AP/FSD and later force-bundled AP. Might be 40-50k full FSD customers.
@EVNow - I'm guessing Model 3 was 51k ASP, 40k COGS and S/X was 94k ASP, 73k COGS. This puts gross margin a bit below 22% for Model 3, a bit above for S/X. These ASPs are 1-2k higher than I expected, COGS are pretty close.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
My estimate for Q4 has been 106,500 - as you can see in the chart. But, I'm not assuming much higher margin or margin (or major reductions in SGA etc).
Without much improvement in anything from Q3 - apart from higher deliveries - we can expect about 220M gaap profit in Q4.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I listened to the conf after posting my forecast - basically looks like they were saying
- S/X ASP was higher in Q3 than Q2
- Model 3 ASP was same in US but reduced in EU.
I'm going to separate out the credits and calculate the ASP & Margin (for past quarters too). It seems to me Tesla talks about ASP without reg credits, though I don't think they have been explicit about it.
ps : Here is what Zach said. So, I should reduce Model 3 ASP below $50k and increase S&X higher than $97k - if I include reg credits in ASP. Better separate out the credit. Though, in the below statement we don't know whether Zach is talking about ASP with credits or without credits.
Model S and X ASPs increased even accounting for revenue deferrals related to free unlimited supercharging. And Model 3 ASPs declined slightly, driven by mix in Asia, pricing action in EMEA. North American ASPs held flat as mix improved, offsetting pricing action we took at the start of the quarter, which is great to see. Note that with the release of Smart Summon in the US, we were able to recognize $30 million of deferred revenue. As we expand Smart Summon to additional markets and release new features, we will continue to recognize additional deferred revenue.
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what's interesting to me is they list factory capacity in the update letter. 350k/yr model 3's from Fremont = 87.5k a quarter. So I'd expect to approach that in Q4 production. And of course S/X sales have also been a moving target that's difficult to estimate. ... but if S/X stay flat only need a few k from GF3 to exceed annual guidance.
Can someone explain how leasing works in respect to revenue?
As I understand it, with model 3 leases now increasing, shouldn’t that lead to cumulatively higher leasing revenue each quarter until the first leases end (eg years from now)?
I understand that S/X leasing amount should be relatively stable, but 3 leasing shoudl be increasing each quarter by a large amount yes?
As I understand it, with model 3 leases now increasing, shouldn’t that lead to cumulatively higher leasing revenue each quarter until the first leases end (eg years from now)?
I understand that S/X leasing amount should be relatively stable, but 3 leasing shoudl be increasing each quarter by a large amount yes?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Or they will do what they do every year; make factory employees work long overtime hours starting in mid November then give them a big fat vacation starting Jan 1.
Has this surprise Q3 profit moved up the likely future quarter where Tesla could be added to S&P 500?
If I understand the requirements correctly, this is likely to happen for Tesla in 2020 after a future quarter which has positive earnings as well as positive earnings counting over that quarter and the three previous quarters. I think the consensus here on TMC is that Q4 will have the highest vehicles delivered yet and this should produce a profit equal or greater than Q3. While Q1 is expected to be a rough quarter, if it actually came in with a small profit rather than a loss, the profits in Q3 and Q4 will easily outweigh the Q2 2019 loss, making the 4 quarters profitable. Couldn't Tesla then be added to the S&P sometime in Q2?
If Q1 2020 instead shows a small loss, but Tesla returns to profitability in Q2, then it could be added to S&P in Q3.
My understanding from following the S&P postings is that the extra demand for shares by the many funds which must hold shares in all 500 companies should put additional upward pressure on SP. I have not seen anyone estimate how many shares would need to be purchased by these funds over a few months and then estimate how much higher it might raise the SP in Q3.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
I haven't been tracking this, but I think @Fact Checking made some prognostications in his recent posts in the main thread.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
If they can produce 5,000 to 10,000 cars in China before the end of the year, then I think hitting the 360,000 shouldn't be a problem for this year. I'm interested to see if they can hit around 500,000 next year, which I think is the projection. I was skeptical about whether the company could be profitable moving to selling mostly Model 3s, but it seems like Musk is doing it. Kudos!
Elon on just finished solar roof call said “well over 1000 solar roof installs per week within a few months”
Anyone willing to pencil in 10,000 solar roof installs at $40k+ ASP in Q12020 for $400 million extra in Energy Revenue?
Anyone willing to pencil in 10,000 solar roof installs at $40k+ ASP in Q12020 for $400 million extra in Energy Revenue?
Doggydogworld
Active Member
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I'd be pretty excited about 1k roof installs in Q1, with a manufacturing rate in the high 00's at the end of the quarter. Then using your numbers for Q2. That'd be a real product, soon, that we can start valuing based on margin contribution, scalability, and what buyers of the product think of it, the purchase experience, and so forth.
The speed that China ramps up deliveries seems to be the main driving factor of when Tesla would get added to s&p in my opinion.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Earliest possible date for inclusion is the end of Q2 2020, correct?
Profitability in four most recent quarters?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
How about this - first number is production and second is installations:
Q1 : 1,000 500
Q2: 5,000 4,000
Q3: 7,000 6,500
Q4: 10,000 9,000
EVNow
Well-Known Member
So, shifting the 10k installs by 3 quarters to account for Elon's time … we get to $10B revenue & $800M in gaap profit by Q4 '20. I'd consider the forecast somewhat conservative. I've assumed a slow rollout of Y, Solar & GF3.
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The Accountant
Active Member
Could be Q1 2020
Here is the definition on "Financial Viability"
The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should the most recent quarter.
The sum of the most recent 4 Qtrs and the most recent quarter need to have positive earnings.
Therefore, if Q4 2019 plus Q1 2020 can generates profits of $266m, Tesla meets the Financial Viability criteria. See chart below.
However, here is an important point: per the S&P 500 methodology, "the index is reconstituted annually, after the close of the third Friday in June, using a reference date of the last business day of May". I believe this means that if Tesla does not qualify for the S&P 500 with Q1 2020 earnings, they will need to wait until 2021 as the "last business day in May" does not afford the benefit of Q2 results.
