Or maybe, just maybe, half of that was a weekend...
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
Seriously.......who falls for this anymore?
Well let's see. If Q1 was profitable, then all the operating expenses were already covered.
33k more vehicles * 50k ASP * 32% GM = $528 Million flow through profit/ 3B shares = $0.17 per share + Q1 = $1.24 (plus energy and service improvements)
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
"Analyst" continue to revise their estimate downward today the EPS was updated. It's down another $0.01 since Wednesday, now EPS is estimated at $1.00 on yahoo. I would assume we will drop another 1-2¢ before the actual earnings are announced with the current rate we've seen since the P&D was announced. Get you
ready for Oct 19thI'm wondering if Analyst are that naive or they are setting up the market for a recovery by settings expectations too low on purpose.
Trashing stock on purpose. They are everything but naive."Analyst" continue to revise their estimate downward today the EPS was updated. It's down another $0.01 since Wednesday, now EPS is estimated at $1.00 on yahoo. I would assume we will drop another 1-2¢ before the actual earnings are announced with the current rate we've seen since the P&D was announced. Get you
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I'm wondering if Analyst are that naive or they are setting up the market for a recovery by settings expectations too low on purpose.
Rob in his video today said his earnings estimate is $1.10
The Accountant
Active Member
That's his GAAP EPS. I believe his Non-GAAP is $1.21.
Diluted Non-GAPP
Q1 is shown as 1.07 (split adjusted) Tesla's number was 3.22
petit_bateau
Active Member
QUESTION ?
Tesla announced the following Q3 2022 production numbers:
- S/X = 19,935
- 3/Y = 345,988
From China we have approximately the following Shanghai Q3 production :
- 3 = 56,494 = 11261+14976+30257
- Y = 141,458 = 27458+62169+51831
Q1. What are the best approximations any of you can come up with for 3 and Y production respectively between variously Fremont, Austin, and Berlin ?
Q2. Does anyone have more accurate production numbers on Shanghai ?
The reason is that quite apart from anything else I'd like to update this. I can take my own SWAG at the apportionment but y'all may have some extra tidbits of data that help get a fix on things.
Tesla announced the following Q3 2022 production numbers:
- S/X = 19,935
- 3/Y = 345,988
From China we have approximately the following Shanghai Q3 production :
- 3 = 56,494 = 11261+14976+30257
- Y = 141,458 = 27458+62169+51831
Q1. What are the best approximations any of you can come up with for 3 and Y production respectively between variously Fremont, Austin, and Berlin ?
Q2. Does anyone have more accurate production numbers on Shanghai ?
The reason is that quite apart from anything else I'd like to update this. I can take my own SWAG at the apportionment but y'all may have some extra tidbits of data that help get a fix on things.
Troy's numbers are below although I believe he is not counting vehicles that were in-transit from q3 in his q4 estimate.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Lol Troy. A couple weeks ago Tesla implied they’re going to shoot for the upper 400s.
I’ll bet you Troy’s initial delivery estimate here is a minimum of 50,000 cars too low.
I’ll bet you Troy’s initial delivery estimate here is a minimum of 50,000 cars too low.
Are those numbers deliveries or production?
I want to be sure I'm using the right source.
CPCA
January: 59,845
February: 56,515
March: 65,814
April: 10,757
May: 32,165
June: 78,906
July: 28,217
August: 76,965
September: 83,135
Giving totals of:
Q1: 182,174
Q2: 121,828
Q3: 188,317
Thank you!
petit_bateau
Active Member
I am discussing production. I may have inadvertently picked up the wrong China numbers, which I'll correct if so. My intent is to discuss production.
(I'm not at my desk now, just trying to clarify)
I think he is way over compensating for the ending the wave. I believe the ending the wave is really focused on ending the mad scramble to get as many of the final week or 2 production delivered as physically possible. Not having a bunch of boats leaving China the final month of the final quarter of the year for Europe. Maybe I could believe if it was another quarter, but not 4th quarter. To me take out the last week of quarter production as the number of cars not delivered.
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Well, that's about 35K cars, right? (Rough math: 450,000/13) Maybe 40K if they hit 495K production and it's back-loaded? That's not so incredibly far from Troy's numbers, but it's still a higher discrepancy than I'd expect. By that logic, they have the last week of production from Q3 to deliver in Q4, so it would really only be the difference between a week of end-of-Q4 production and a week of end-of-Q3 production, which would be 10K or under, right? And we already know there were 20K+ produced but not delivered at the end of Q3. Seems like a pretty bad case would be they can't deliver 40K from end-of-Q4 production, but they do deliver 20K of Q3 production, leaving a ~20K discrepancy.
If this *was* all caused by China demand unexpectedly falling slightly under upgraded production capacity -- that is, not enough deliveries to perform really close to Shanghai to soak up its end-of-quarter production -- AND if that recurs in Q4 (neither of which is a given) -- then I'd expect Tesla to better manage that in Q4. Geographically, they have demand all over the place, and they can manage production/shipping accordingly. Maybe they put more on trains in early December so they can deliver more really near the factory in late December, or whatever.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Agree. Tesla is ending the wave, but they'll still try to have as many cars delivered by EOQ as possible--and EOY in particular.
petit_bateau
Active Member
As we all know there are more variables than there are data points so a bit of judicious guessing is required to fill in the likely Q3 production numbers.
Here is my updated best stab at it. To be truthful I'm not quite sure which is the right China data to use as production versus sales, but I don't think it matters greatly in the overall scheme of things given the size of the other error terms in model/factory production apportionment.
The thing to pay attention to is that either Fremont has unlocked additional production, or that Berlin+Austin have steeper ramp rates than Fremont did. For now I am tentatively assuming that the Fremont ramp rate is more typical than the Shanghai ramp rate. I am tentatively assuming this because Shanghai benefitted greatly from being stuffed by Fremont, and quite a lot of new stuff is happening both at Berlin and Austin. That in turn suggests that Fremont is perhaps increasing production now, up perhaps from 116k to 124k, so an extra 7k of 3/Y (plus an extra 2k of S/Z). I am unsure - there simply isn't enough firm data. In the ramp rate graph below I have dialed in the Q4 as well on a similarly matched trajectory and you'll see it gets to 1,346,910 production for the year.
One can pick holes in this. For example is LFP pack supply to Berlin enough to meet the 15k ramp at Berlin ? Might Austin even be ahead of Berlin and if so is that reliant on Sparks cells, or 4680 cells, or what ? Can Fremont really have increased production by a further 7k of 3/Y in the last quarter ? I don't know the answers to these questions and woukd be grateful if anyone with hard data could help fill in the gaps a bit.
Here is my updated best stab at it. To be truthful I'm not quite sure which is the right China data to use as production versus sales, but I don't think it matters greatly in the overall scheme of things given the size of the other error terms in model/factory production apportionment.
The thing to pay attention to is that either Fremont has unlocked additional production, or that Berlin+Austin have steeper ramp rates than Fremont did. For now I am tentatively assuming that the Fremont ramp rate is more typical than the Shanghai ramp rate. I am tentatively assuming this because Shanghai benefitted greatly from being stuffed by Fremont, and quite a lot of new stuff is happening both at Berlin and Austin. That in turn suggests that Fremont is perhaps increasing production now, up perhaps from 116k to 124k, so an extra 7k of 3/Y (plus an extra 2k of S/Z). I am unsure - there simply isn't enough firm data. In the ramp rate graph below I have dialed in the Q4 as well on a similarly matched trajectory and you'll see it gets to 1,346,910 production for the year.
One can pick holes in this. For example is LFP pack supply to Berlin enough to meet the 15k ramp at Berlin ? Might Austin even be ahead of Berlin and if so is that reliant on Sparks cells, or 4680 cells, or what ? Can Fremont really have increased production by a further 7k of 3/Y in the last quarter ? I don't know the answers to these questions and woukd be grateful if anyone with hard data could help fill in the gaps a bit.
