Also dont think the smoothed out means they will just continually ship to EU. Especially late on quarter. Tesla still desires few cars in shipment at end of quarter. Just wont increase costs to deliver cars at the very end of the quarter.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
XHabjab
TSLA Bull
Agreed on the cost, there also seems to be availability issues with the RORO ships for Tesla shipments. A RORO carrier really wants to achieve full time capacity to do well. Tesla’s on again off again shipping habits disrupt this, and a carrier might prefer another car company if their shipments are more evenly spaced out. Tesla still prefers a complete manufacture - ship - deliver cycle in the same quarter, but right now there are Chinese Teslas enroute to Europe (intentionally) over the Q3/Q4 boundary for the first time ever. This contributes to higher inventory figures. Previously, this only happened when cars were left on the dock for some reason or a ship had mechanical problems.
Adding to the cost point, destination can be an issue. Supposedly, Australia/New Zealand are very expensive for RORO shipments (I haven’t verified, please fact check). Oz does not manufacture any vehicles for export, and a car shipment going there comes back empty. Shipping companies don’t like that. For a RORO taking Teslas from Shanghai to Belgium, it might pick up a load of BMWs on the Belgium end to go somewhere else. That’s synergy.
The RORO business is quite lucrative. Preferential treatment can affect profitability significantly. Many (most?) RORO ships are owned by Hyundai, and bias is seen in favour of their car business. I recall during the Model 3 ramp, car carriers were hard to come by in Fremont, so Elon started building his own (how did that turn out?). I wonder if Tesla will take the route of building a RORO fleet.
dc_h
Active Member
Wondering if anyone has a summary of earnings estimates for 2023? I looked back a few pages and didn't see any 2023 numbers. It looks like Q3 will have forward PE of about 50, down from 100 at the start of the year. Q4 PE could be in the 25-35 range if the stock stays in this range. Really hard to believe we could be at such a low PE with growth story still seemingly in tact. Without word of a new plant by end of year, growth will have to slow by 2024, but they have stuck to the 50% YOY story so far. Apologies if it's all here already.
Changes in Q3 & 4: Recognition of FSD revenue; energy unit finally reaching scale to generate FCF; Berlin & Austin producing over 50,000 cars in Q1; price cuts in China, Model 2/Q announced?
Changes in Q3 & 4: Recognition of FSD revenue; energy unit finally reaching scale to generate FCF; Berlin & Austin producing over 50,000 cars in Q1; price cuts in China, Model 2/Q announced?
All I'm saying is, Europe YTD has made up ~15% of Tesla's global deliveries. And the four daily reporting countries (Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, and Spain) make up ~18% of Tesla's Europe sales YTD.
Now, I suspect most of the ~20k "in transit" vehicles at the end of Q3 were headed to Europe, given Shanghai's shift to exports earlier than in past quarters, but if we assume an even distribution in line with the YTD regional mix, then ~3k of those were headed to Europe and ~550 of that 3k would be allocated to Norway/Sweden/Spain/Netherlands.
On top of that, we have Berlin claiming they've achieved a 2k/week run rate of Model Ys. That means, in a given week, ~360 of those should be showing up in the four daily reported countries.
We can throw out the "in transit" vehicles if you'd like, given that it probably takes more than a week for them to get to Europe from Shanghai.
The 2k/week run rate out of Berlin should result in more than 15 vehicles being sold in the four daily reporting countries through the first week of October.
And if you drill down on eu-evs, you'll see only 4 of the vehicles delivered so far this quarter in those countries were MIB MYs. At a 2k/week run rate, you'd expect at least 120-150 so far this month to have been delivered to those countries. Transportation should not be an issue as a truck can reach any country in Europe from Germany in a couple days.
I suppose it's possible that those four countries have not been prioritized for MIB MY deliveries, but that would be odd given that Norway alone is Tesla's 4th largest European market.
You wrote a lot of text and numbers, not sure if it worth it. There is 0 or boatload deliveries and 1rst suspected ship is about 5 days till reaching Zeebruge and add some time to reach "live" countries if portion of cars are destinied to go there. So there is almost nothing to monitor...
Not if they group region specific builds and shipping. Nothing particular about prioritization. At 18% they get 3 weeks of European production per quarter.
Four vehicles sounds more like overhang than new deliveries (car carrier is 7-9 vehicles).
If one of four children born are nationality X, and I already have 3 non-X children...
Just a FYI, Tesla has stuck to 50% CARG growth.....not delivery growth.
Just in 2023, Tesla will be expanding Megapack production/delivery exponentially (at full production, it will add roughly 20-25 billion in annual revenue) and higher priced vehicles such as Semi and the Cybertruck with Semi starting production now/volume production in 2023 and Cybetruck starting production in 2023/volume production in 2024. The Semi will be continuing to ramp up in 2024 as well.
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I take it you're just going to ignore the fact that the vast majority of Berlin production is being delivered to Germany
It was this way in Aug and Sept, it will be this way in Oct as well.
Runarbt
Active Member
Most black and white MYs in Norway are made in Berlin.I take it you're just going to ignore the fact that the vast majority of Berlin production is being delivered to Germany
It was this way in Aug and Sept, it will be this way in Oct as well.
YTD:
DE-P : 2647
DE-LR : 746
The point I was making was in response to that poster trying to paint a narrative that somehow the first 7 days of Oct/Q4 have been a disappointment by selectively choosing 4 markets to focus in on. My post was pointing out that if you look back at Q3's registration numbers (now that we have the monthly registration numbers for countries such as German), the 4-5 areas that they're listing out didn't benefit nearly as much from Giga Berlin production as locations like Germany(and the surrounding countries did).Most black and white MYs in Norway are made in Berlin.
YTD:
DE-P : 2647
DE-LR : 746
So it seems fairly obvious that Berlin's production focused more on the mainland part of Europe with heavy emphasis on Germany the countries surrounding. Thus its equally farily obvious that places like Norway aren't going to see that much impact from Giga Berlin production....until Giga Berlin ramps to much higher numbers. And thus, places like Norway are still going to be disproportionally dependent on Giga Shanghai exports.
Runarbt
Active Member
Very true. Norway never recieve many cars first month, and obviously no need to expedite shipping from Berlin. Focus on local deliveries now, and rest of Europe when it fits their logistics schedules.
petit_bateau
Active Member
My annuals are at the link below, see base case in post 4834. Or if it is the quarterlies you are after here are those as EPS and ratios
Tesla BEV Competition Developments
..... but Munro is a highly experienced automotive engineer who knows what he's talking about. Until the subject turns to electronics or software. Fortunately he leans more on other staff members in those areas these days.
teslamotorsclub.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
However in order to reach the 20 mln vehicles by 2030 target that they have not removed guidance for, they do need to average 50% vehicle growth per year. So I think both targets are still valid. There is also the energy storage target of 1,500 GWh/yr by 2030, so the implication of that is that as storage comes in so the ARPV is expected to decline, which would also be natural to expect.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Interestingly I have found all sorts of different ways of constructing a PEG out there on the web and so at one point I sat down and played around to get some internally consistent versions for myself. So personally for the forwards PEG I use the following in my calculations. One can also calculate the trailing version in a symmetrical manner which I do in my model as I am aware that some people will consider that number in their share pricing decision. There is a third version that is almost an 'instantaneous' version that uses 4x Current Quarter EPS etc but that is very sensitive to any quarterly variation so I don't use that in this case. In my near-term forecast (next two years) I sum the relevant quarterly numbers. In the longer term forecast (> 2yrs) I just have annual numbers.
= R74/(S67*100)
= FWD PE / (NXT YR REV GRTH % * 100)
= (THIS YR END YR SHARE PRICE or 'end qtr'/ NXT YR EPS) / (NXT YR REV GRTH % * 100)
As an aside there used to be somewhat different practices between UK stockmarket and US stockmarket as to what constittutes "earnings". The Americans never think about it from anything except their own perspective, but for the rest of world that is not possible. For clarification in these sums I am using Net Income per Common Share (diluted) (GAAP). In the case of Tesla that is easy. In the case of a dividend-paying share it is not such an easy call as to whether to use Net Income or Dividends - there are philosophical differences, and there are also tax implications and cultural ones.
Honest. I'm really an engineer.
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
FYI, it appears that Wall Street's estimate is trending down it's Q3 EPS for Tesla as we get closer to the release date on the 19th.
Originally it was 1.06 and then after the "miss" on delivered vehicles it dropped to 1.04 and today I just checked the same source and it is 1.03. Might be setting Tesla up for an even bigger beat if these revisions continue to trend downward as we get closer to the released numbers.
Originally it was 1.06 and then after the "miss" on delivered vehicles it dropped to 1.04 and today I just checked the same source and it is 1.03. Might be setting Tesla up for an even bigger beat if these revisions continue to trend downward as we get closer to the released numbers.
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Runarbt
Active Member
Q1/23 our EPS was 1.07 - do they really think it will be lower now?
Q3 With Texas and Berlin actually producing cars at volume, and deliveries up 10%, tesla energy continue to ramp and Teslas continues focus on reducing cost and even reducing staff?
JusRelax
Active Member
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
4 F---ing days? Are you for real? Talk about cherry-picking your data points.
Here's a thought: how about MAYBE, just MAYBE those cars went to a country that doesn't do daily reporting? Or perhaps they are still on a boat? Transit times from Shanghai to EU are ~3-4 weeks if memory serves me.
Gordo, is that you?
