did that note come out today? no rating/price target change though?
@larmor street estimates i took from yahoo.
Seems that way, the quote I included links back to a fuller summary by @mulder1231
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did that note come out today? no rating/price target change though?
@larmor street estimates i took from yahoo.
Jonas thinks you may be correct :
5. Compared with MS 3Q forecast, the 8,192 total delivery beat (all models) could drive $600mm of incremental revenue and at least $200mm of incremental pretax, potentially making Tesla OP Positive on a GAAP basis for 3Q vs. our forecast of nearly $100mm US GAAP OP loss.
OP is before Other Income(Expense), Interest, Taxes and NCI lay-off. Incremental OP of $200mm on incremental Revenue of $600mm implies an incremental 33.3 GM% and static OpEx.
Puzzled why the sp is not taking off...
Perhaps because there was no mention of positive earnings and cash flow in the 8k?
The share price is like tide levels--constantly up & down.
here's my latest update with all new information. don't understand why there is large amounts of whitespace, i tried editing but couldn't fix.
there are upside to my cash forecasts due to in-transit drawdown. 1b free cash flow is not out of the question and there's even a shot at possibly 4b in cash by end of 18q4 - that would match tesla's highest ever cash balance.
i'm still taking a bit of a break but will try to check comments. thanks.
[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q3-18e [/TD2][TD2] Jun-18 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]14,470[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]13,190[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 28,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,660 [/TD2][TD2] 22,319 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 62,000 [/TD2][TD2] 55,840 [/TD2][TD2] 18,449 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2][TD2] 28,578 [/TD2][TD2] 9,766 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.07 [/TD2][TD2] 0.07 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 103.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.00 [/TD2][TD2] 105.14 [/TD2][TD2] 105.42 [/TD2] [TD2] 58.00 [/TD2][TD2] 59.00 [/TD2][TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.80 [/TD2] [TD2]2,682,120[/TD2][TD2]2,675,275[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2] [TD2]3,596,000[/TD2][TD2]3,294,560[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2] [TD2]197,807[/TD2][TD2]201,398[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,575,927 [/TD2][TD2] 6,271,233 [/TD2][TD2] 3,357,681 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]140,450[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]237,600[/TD2][TD2]231,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,299,027 [/TD2][TD2] 6,942,683 [/TD2][TD2] 4,002,231 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,979,706[/TD2][TD2]1,975,105[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2] [TD2]2,804,880[/TD2][TD2]2,767,430[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2] [TD2]122,641[/TD2][TD2]124,867[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 4,907,227 [/TD2][TD2] 4,867,402 [/TD2][TD2] 2,666,654 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]147,473[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]166,320[/TD2][TD2]161,700[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,645,046 [/TD2][TD2] 5,571,573 [/TD2][TD2] 3,383,301 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,653,981 [/TD2][TD2] 1,371,110 [/TD2][TD2] 618,930 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]29.4%[/TD2][TD2]29.5%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2] [TD2]27.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2] [TD2]22.0%[/TD2][TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2] [TD2]24.2%[/TD2][TD2]21.1%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]360,000[/TD2][TD2]350,000[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]630,000[/TD2][TD2]620,000[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,185,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,175,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,240,322 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 468,981 [/TD2][TD2] 196,110 [/TD2][TD2] -621,392 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 302,981 [/TD2][TD2] 30,110 [/TD2][TD2] -728,999 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 282,982 [/TD2][TD2] 10,111 [/TD2][TD2] -742,706 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 332,983 [/TD2][TD2] 60,112 [/TD2][TD2] -717,539 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 1.82 [/TD2][TD2] 0.33 [/TD2][TD2] -4.22 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]332,983[/TD2][TD2]60,112[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]540,983[/TD2][TD2]260,112[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.96 [/TD2][TD2] 1.43 [/TD2][TD2] -3.06 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2] 72.00 [/TD2][TD2] 80.00 [/TD2][TD2] 89.67 [/TD2][TD2] 79.31 [/TD2] [TD2] 77.00 [/TD2][TD2] 81.00 [/TD2][TD2] 81.73 [/TD2][TD2] 80.47 [/TD2] [TD2]3,531,562[/TD2][TD2]2,957,585[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]1,199,840[/TD2][TD2]1,141,263[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]4,454,173[/TD2][TD2]4,884,667[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]374,443[/TD2][TD2]371,101[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 9,710,018 [/TD2][TD2] 9,484,616 [/TD2][TD2] 6,699,797 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,212,861[/TD2][TD2]2,252,225[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,333,264[/TD2][TD2]6,336,631[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]11,933,736[/TD2][TD2]11,404,808[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]300,406[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]420,841[/TD2][TD2]427,841[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 31,745,582 [/TD2][TD2] 31,040,982 [/TD2][TD2] 27,910,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]4,763,491[/TD2][TD2]4,945,725[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]2,370,000[/TD2][TD2]2,291,250[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]531,087[/TD2][TD2]540,534[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 10,829,577 [/TD2][TD2] 10,942,509 [/TD2][TD2] 9,141,362 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,510,696[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]774,501[/TD2][TD2]788,279[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]3,258,750[/TD2][TD2]3,172,500[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 24,515,448 [/TD2][TD2] 24,775,907 [/TD2][TD2] 22,642,887 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 5,927,191 [/TD2][TD2] 4,962,132 [/TD2][TD2] 3,906,421 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]282,982[/TD2][TD2]10,111[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]465,416[/TD2][TD2]444,788[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]48,847[/TD2][TD2]33,246[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]-58,577[/TD2][TD2]-571,389[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]469,858[/TD2][TD2]-1,530,202[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]-153,484[/TD2][TD2]2,341,503[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]22,871[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,428,041 [/TD2][TD2] 1,105,929 [/TD2][TD2] -129,664 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-600,000[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -760,000 [/TD2][TD2] -660,000 [/TD2][TD2] -682,817 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] 398,622 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 573,978 [/TD2][TD2] 721,161 [/TD2][TD2] -436,470 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,957,585 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 3,531,562 [/TD2][TD2] 2,957,585 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]
… s deliveries x deliveries s+x deliveries 3 deliveries 3 production lease s/x % veh avg price s+x avg price model 3 revenue auto sales ex 3 auto sales mod 3 auto leasing 1 time autopilot zev credits total auto energy storage solarcity grohmann services/other total revenue cost of revenue auto sales ex 3 auto sales mod 3 auto leasing total auto energy storage solarcity grohmann services & other total cost of rev gross profit auto gaap ex 3 gm auto-zev ex 3 gm model 3 gm auto-zev incl 3 gm storage gm scty gm grohmann gm services gm opex tesla r&d tesla sg&a 1 time costs solarcity r&d solarcity sg&a total opex op income interest inc interest exp scty interest other income exp 1time scty gain pretax income income tax net income non-cont int. net inc to common basic shares diluted shares diluted gaap eps gaap net income + stock based comp + one time scty non-gaap net income non-gaap diluted eps dio dpo balance sheet current assets cash & eq. restricted cash accts rcvbl inventory prepaids+other total current assets op lease vehicles solar energy sys pp&e intangible assets goodwill mypower rcvbls restricted cash other assets total assets current liabiliites accts payable accrued liabs+other deferred revenue resale value guar cust deposits curr debt+leases curr solar bonds total current liabs lt debt+leases solar bonds rel party conv debt deferred revenue resale value guar other lt liabilities comm stk warrants capital lease oblg total liabilities commits/contings rdmbl ncis in subs conv senior notes nci in subsidiaries common equity cash flow statement cash flows from ops net loss dep/amortization stock-based comp am of debt discount inv write-down loss on disposals forex loss (gain) loss on acq scty non-cash int/other chgs in op as/lb accts rcbl inv / op leases prepaids/other ca mypower rcvbls + other accts pybl/accr liabs deferred revenue customer deposits other lt liabs net cash from ops cash flows from inv pp&e purchases purchase solar sys net cash from inv cash flows from fin stock issued debt issued debt repayments rel pty solar repaids coll lease borrowing stock option excrs capital lease paids stock+debt issue cost investment by nci in subs dist to nci in subs buyouts of nci in subs net cash from fin forex effect net change in cash cash & eq start cash & eq end
It’s just assets - liabilities. Assets are increasing faster than liabilities.Great Job your estimate.
One Questions:
Why increases the common equity by more than 1.055.000 ?
Kind regards
Exited at 5.3k with no other mention of a record week.
Given the cash control, and cell production constraints it's very unlikely that Tesla would have lined up suppliers in time to average 6k.
The 3 additional battery cell lines from Panasonic might not be operational quickly enough to be able to do a 6k average for the quarter?
● Grohmann Engineering will help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper, according to Viecha. Their new system will be sent to the Gigafactory by the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4. The Grohmann machine will be in Zones 1, 2, 3, and Tesla will be receiving three machines. The process was designed to alleviate the previous bottleneck in module production which delayed Model 3 production significantly. The machine is already built, and points to the advantage Tesla will have in building future Gigafactories. They have learned many painful lessons, but have a solid blueprint for porting the factory across the world.
here's my latest update with all new information. don't understand why there is large amounts of whitespace, i tried editing but couldn't fix.
there are upside to my cash forecasts due to in-transit drawdown. 1b free cash flow is not out of the question and there's even a shot at possibly 4b in cash by end of 18q4 - that would match tesla's highest ever cash balance.
i'm still taking a bit of a break but will try to check comments. thanks.
===========================================================================
luvb2b, really great work on your forecast for Q3/Q4...
I appreciate how much work was involved in setting it up, and then continuing to update it...
As you may notice, this is my first post, and yes, your post made me sign up! So well done!!
Anyway, the reason I'm posting is, there are two things I'm concerned about on your projections...
The first one, ZEV credits, is a small one, but the SG&A, I think there's no way that can be even close...
ZEV credits:
I think those will turn out to be $0...
I could be wrong, but there was an interesting thread - two threads, actually - on Twitter regarding these...
Anyway, he sold me, but at the very least, worth a read even if you choose to disagree..
Hoping you can read these threads - (don't know if you have a Twitter account)
People's Grain on Twitter
People's Grain on Twitter
But next, on the SG&A, I just don't see how it's even close to being possible those could be barely up from Q2, when sales of the M3 have literally tripled from Q2...
If Tesla used a standard dealership model, maybe that could work - the dealership would be on the hook for those costs...
But with Tesla, they absorb ALL of the costs a normal dealership would pay for itself...
The increased costs of prepping, detailing, paperwork time, servicing of new and just delivered cars, shipping, rentals/loaners, etc...
To say nothing of the additional people at the Service Centers required to handle all that...
All of that is charged to Tesla, and most of it should more or less ramp up roughly equal with the number of cars sold...
There may be some scale effects in a few of those areas, but, there's no possible way sales tripled and SG&A barely budged from the Q2 number...
Anyway, something to consider... I don't have any idea what the number truly will be, and I'm sure you know more than I do about this, but....just seemed a little (more than a little) out of whack...
Thanks for your time...
@luvb2b When your buy the car, there's a destination and doc fee of $1200. This is not part of the ASP I suppose. Is that right?
Elon did say they had to execute well on Sunday to be sure. So we can say they turned a mild GAAP profit based on that.I suspect the any over/under on the destination/document fee vs cost for performing those services would be charged to SG&A.
I concur with Smokey that SG&A has to scale up with a large increase in sales/deliveries, but at an appreciably lower percentage increase than the increase in Revenues. I also believe SG&A will have to absorb some if not all the legal and consulting costs related to the Aug 7 et seq controversies.
My assumptions now yield a net loss of $128.8 MM vs Luvb2b's net profit of $80.1MM
Elon did say they had to execute well on Sunday to be sure. So we can say they turned a mild GAAP profit based on that.
Rough math: 10 million in SG&A scale up turns to 500 more sales / logistics people, at an all in cost of 80k per annum. Aternately, that's $120 more per car delivered. Given that, if luv is underestimating sg&a, that's not by more than 50 million at best.
It’s just assets - liabilities. Assets are increasing faster than liabilities.
luvb2b, really great work on your forecast for Q3/Q4...
I appreciate how much work was involved in setting it up, and then continuing to update it...
As you may notice, this is my first post, and yes, your post made me sign up! So well done!!
Anyway, the reason I'm posting is, there are two things I'm concerned about on your projections...
The first one, ZEV credits, is a small one, but the SG&A, I think there's no way that can be even close...
ZEV credits:
I think those will turn out to be $0...
I could be wrong, but there was an interesting thread - two threads, actually - on Twitter regarding these...
Anyway, he sold me, but at the very least, worth a read even if you choose to disagree..
Hoping you can read these threads - (don't know if you have a Twitter account)
People's Grain on Twitter
People's Grain on Twitter
But next, on the SG&A, I just don't see how it's even close to being possible those could be barely up from Q2, when sales of the M3 have literally tripled from Q2...
If Tesla used a standard dealership model, maybe that could work - the dealership would be on the hook for those costs...
But with Tesla, they absorb ALL of the costs a normal dealership would pay for itself...
The increased costs of prepping, detailing, paperwork time, servicing of new and just delivered cars, shipping, rentals/loaners, etc...
To say nothing of the additional people at the Service Centers required to handle all that...
All of that is charged to Tesla, and most of it should more or less ramp up roughly equal with the number of cars sold...
There may be some scale effects in a few of those areas, but, there's no possible way sales tripled and SG&A barely budged from the Q2 number...
Anyway, something to consider... I don't have any idea what the number truly will be, and I'm sure you know more than I do about this, but....just seemed a little (more than a little) out of whack...
Thanks for your time...
luvb2b, really great work on your forecast for Q3/Q4...
I appreciate how much work was involved in setting it up, and then continuing to update it...
As you may notice, this is my first post, and yes, your post made me sign up! So well done!!
Anyway, the reason I'm posting is, there are two things I'm concerned about on your projections...
The first one, ZEV credits, is a small one, but the SG&A, I think there's no way that can be even close...
ZEV credits:
I think those will turn out to be $0...
I could be wrong, but there was an interesting thread - two threads, actually - on Twitter regarding these...
Anyway, he sold me, but at the very least, worth a read even if you choose to disagree..
Hoping you can read these threads - (don't know if you have a Twitter account)
People's Grain on Twitter
People's Grain on Twitter
But next, on the SG&A, I just don't see how it's even close to being possible those could be barely up from Q2, when sales of the M3 have literally tripled from Q2...
If Tesla used a standard dealership model, maybe that could work - the dealership would be on the hook for those costs...
But with Tesla, they absorb ALL of the costs a normal dealership would pay for itself...
The increased costs of prepping, detailing, paperwork time, servicing of new and just delivered cars, shipping, rentals/loaners, etc...
To say nothing of the additional people at the Service Centers required to handle all that...
All of that is charged to Tesla, and most of it should more or less ramp up roughly equal with the number of cars sold...
There may be some scale effects in a few of those areas, but, there's no possible way sales tripled and SG&A barely budged from the Q2 number...
Anyway, something to consider... I don't have any idea what the number truly will be, and I'm sure you know more than I do about this, but....just seemed a little (more than a little) out of whack...
Thanks for your time...