Near-future quarterly financial projections

[brian45011]

tsla-ex991_6.htm


Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X.

8,048 Model 3 vehicles and 3,776 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q3

Reduction in in-transit should help cash flow from operations.

 

[uselesslogin]

Nuts, on which page is the most up-to-date model?

 

[defc0n]

Maybe: q2-q4 2018 financial projections

Looks like we beat deliveries soundly.

 

[luvb2b]

here's my latest update with all new information. don't understand why there is large amounts of whitespace, i tried editing but couldn't fix.

there are upside to my cash forecasts due to in-transit drawdown. 1b free cash flow is not out of the question and there's even a shot at possibly 4b in cash by end of 18q4 - that would match tesla's highest ever cash balance.

i'm still taking a bit of a break but will try to check comments. thanks.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

dio

dpo

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q3-18e [/TD2][TD2] Jun-18 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]14,470[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]13,190[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 28,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,660 [/TD2][TD2] 22,319 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 62,000 [/TD2][TD2] 55,840 [/TD2][TD2] 18,449 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2][TD2] 28,578 [/TD2][TD2] 9,766 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.07 [/TD2][TD2] 0.07 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 103.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.00 [/TD2][TD2] 105.14 [/TD2][TD2] 105.42 [/TD2] [TD2] 58.00 [/TD2][TD2] 59.00 [/TD2][TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.80 [/TD2] [TD2]2,682,120[/TD2][TD2]2,675,275[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2] [TD2]3,596,000[/TD2][TD2]3,294,560[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2] [TD2]197,807[/TD2][TD2]201,398[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,575,927 [/TD2][TD2] 6,271,233 [/TD2][TD2] 3,357,681 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]140,450[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]237,600[/TD2][TD2]231,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,299,027 [/TD2][TD2] 6,942,683 [/TD2][TD2] 4,002,231 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,979,706[/TD2][TD2]1,975,105[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2] [TD2]2,804,880[/TD2][TD2]2,767,430[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2] [TD2]122,641[/TD2][TD2]124,867[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 4,907,227 [/TD2][TD2] 4,867,402 [/TD2][TD2] 2,666,654 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]147,473[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]166,320[/TD2][TD2]161,700[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,645,046 [/TD2][TD2] 5,571,573 [/TD2][TD2] 3,383,301 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,653,981 [/TD2][TD2] 1,371,110 [/TD2][TD2] 618,930 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]29.4%[/TD2][TD2]29.5%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2] [TD2]27.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2] [TD2]22.0%[/TD2][TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2] [TD2]24.2%[/TD2][TD2]21.1%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]360,000[/TD2][TD2]350,000[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]630,000[/TD2][TD2]620,000[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,185,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,175,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,240,322 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 468,981 [/TD2][TD2] 196,110 [/TD2][TD2] -621,392 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 302,981 [/TD2][TD2] 30,110 [/TD2][TD2] -728,999 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 282,982 [/TD2][TD2] 10,111 [/TD2][TD2] -742,706 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 332,983 [/TD2][TD2] 60,112 [/TD2][TD2] -717,539 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 1.82 [/TD2][TD2] 0.33 [/TD2][TD2] -4.22 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]332,983[/TD2][TD2]60,112[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]540,983[/TD2][TD2]260,112[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.96 [/TD2][TD2] 1.43 [/TD2][TD2] -3.06 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2] 72.00 [/TD2][TD2] 80.00 [/TD2][TD2] 89.67 [/TD2][TD2] 79.31 [/TD2] [TD2] 77.00 [/TD2][TD2] 81.00 [/TD2][TD2] 81.73 [/TD2][TD2] 80.47 [/TD2] [TD2]3,531,562[/TD2][TD2]2,957,585[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]1,199,840[/TD2][TD2]1,141,263[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]4,454,173[/TD2][TD2]4,884,667[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]374,443[/TD2][TD2]371,101[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 9,710,018 [/TD2][TD2] 9,484,616 [/TD2][TD2] 6,699,797 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,212,861[/TD2][TD2]2,252,225[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,333,264[/TD2][TD2]6,336,631[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]11,933,736[/TD2][TD2]11,404,808[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]300,406[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]420,841[/TD2][TD2]427,841[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 31,745,582 [/TD2][TD2] 31,040,982 [/TD2][TD2] 27,910,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]4,763,491[/TD2][TD2]4,945,725[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]2,370,000[/TD2][TD2]2,291,250[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]531,087[/TD2][TD2]540,534[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 10,829,577 [/TD2][TD2] 10,942,509 [/TD2][TD2] 9,141,362 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,510,696[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]774,501[/TD2][TD2]788,279[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]3,258,750[/TD2][TD2]3,172,500[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 24,515,448 [/TD2][TD2] 24,775,907 [/TD2][TD2] 22,642,887 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 5,927,191 [/TD2][TD2] 4,962,132 [/TD2][TD2] 3,906,421 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]282,982[/TD2][TD2]10,111[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]465,416[/TD2][TD2]444,788[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]48,847[/TD2][TD2]33,246[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]-58,577[/TD2][TD2]-571,389[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]469,858[/TD2][TD2]-1,530,202[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]-153,484[/TD2][TD2]2,341,503[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]22,871[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,428,041 [/TD2][TD2] 1,105,929 [/TD2][TD2] -129,664 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-600,000[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -760,000 [/TD2][TD2] -660,000 [/TD2][TD2] -682,817 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] 398,622 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 573,978 [/TD2][TD2] 721,161 [/TD2][TD2] -436,470 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,957,585 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 3,531,562 [/TD2][TD2] 2,957,585 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

 

[SBenson]

Numbers look FANTASTIC!

Puzzled why the sp is not taking off...

Market numbed-out by the hysteria over last few months?

 

[mongo]

Numbers look FANTASTIC!

Puzzled why the sp is not taking off...

Market numbed-out by the hysteria over last few months?

200k shares per minute want it to go down...
That is double the usual high MMD rate.

 

[schonelucht]

Common pattern for Tesla. Great numbers, stock goes down. Bad numbers, stock goes up? Anyway, I am buying in again on the strength of their deliveries. SEC episode made me lose $30 or so, but it's ok.

 

[heltok]

Excellent work luvb2b!

60,000 Model 3 production for Q4, isn't that a bit low? I would guess 5k/week going forward, ramping up Motors and batteries towards the end with 12weeks of production finishing with a strong weak near 10000. I estimate 72000 Model 3 produced in Q4.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Excellent work luvb2b!

60,000 Model 3 production for Q4, isn't that a bit low? I would guess 5k/week going forward, ramping up Motors and batteries towards the end with 12weeks of production finishing with a strong weak near 10000. I estimate 72000 Model 3 produced in Q4.

Exited at 5.3k with no other mention of a record week.
Given the cash control, and cell production constraints it's very unlikely that Tesla would have lined up suppliers in time to average 6k.

 

[luvb2b]

i imagine they'll take a week off. last quarter they came out at around 4400/week including 1 week of downtime. 12-15% uptick in production to 5k/week including 1 week of downtime seems conservatively appropriate.

Excellent work luvb2b!

60,000 Model 3 production for Q4, isn't that a bit low? I would guess 5k/week going forward, ramping up Motors and batteries towards the end with 12weeks of production finishing with a strong weak near 10000. I estimate 72000 Model 3 produced in Q4.

 

[neroden]

Excellent modelling, luvb2b.

It's nice that they beat on deliveries for Model 3, Model S, and Model X, but you were still very close, so good conservative modeling.

I expect we'll discover some increases in SG&A and perhaps warranty reserve ("delivery logistics hell" is expensive and there's those steering column turn signal stalks to replace) but there's enough profit to handle that and still show profits.

Stock move down is looney -- obvious market manipulation. I stand by my belief that the shorts will be overwhelmed either after *Q4* results come out, or after the March bond maturity is paid off, but will try to hang on through the fourth quarter, for whatever reason.

 

[luvb2b]

well the stock did just go up 40 points in 2 days, so not surprised its slowed it's pace.

note the highest street (non gaap) estimate is -38c. there's nearly $2 of real estate between my non-gaap estimates and the street.

i may be wrong again but i think there's a chance the analyst community realizes the truth is probably in the middle somewhere.

Excellent modelling, luvb2b.

It's nice that they beat on deliveries for Model 3, Model S, and Model X, but you were still very close, so good conservative modeling.

I expect we'll discover some increases in SG&A and perhaps warranty reserve ("delivery logistics hell" is expensive and there's those steering column turn signal stalks to replace) but there's enough profit to handle that and still show profits.

Stock move down is looney -- obvious market manipulation. I stand by my belief that the shorts will be overwhelmed either after *Q4* results come out, or after the March bond maturity is paid off, but will try to hang on through the fourth quarter, for whatever reason.

 

[oneday]

Almost $7 bn in revenue for q3. Over 55k model 3 deliveries. This seems like a huge beat.

Thanks for the update @luvb2b

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Amazing modeling and amazing quarter!!!
Does it include the 20M SEC fine? I’m half kidding please don’t kill me.

*slowly starts walking away*

 

[brian45011]

Does it include the 20M SEC fine?

Fine will not be accrued until settlement is approved by the court--4Q18. The corporation's and BoD's legal and consulting expenses will be in SG&A. It is unclear (at least to me) whether legal advisers to the individual directors, including Elon, will be covered by the D&O policy and corporate indemnity rather than the individuals paying those costs themselves.

 

[neroden]

well the stock did just go up 40 points in 2 days, so not surprised its slowed it's pace.

note the highest street (non gaap) estimate is -38c. there's nearly $2 of real estate between my non-gaap estimates and the street.

That's wild. While you may be wrong, I firmly expect Tesla to beat the highest street non-GAAP estimate. In fact, if they just update their models to reflect the production numbers and the high percentage of AWD sales, they should be updating their estimates. Do you think they will update them?

i may be wrong again but i think there's a chance the analyst community realizes the truth is probably in the middle somewhere.

 

[luvb2b]

Fine will not be accrued until settlement is approved by the court--4Q18. The corporation's and BoD's legal and consulting expenses will be in SG&A. It is unclear (at least to me) whether legal advisers to the individual directors, including Elon, will be covered by the D&O policy and corporate indemnity rather than the individuals paying those costs themselves.

if you are right then i have mistakenly accrued the 20m fine as one time items in q3 opex. that would move to q4.

i think analysts will update models. the process is: 1. enter new numbers. 2. pick up phone and tell your best customers so they can position. 3. release report/update publicly. i'd guess that process has started. or that i my forecasts are somehow badly flawed, which is where we need shorts to help out.

 

[mongo]

if you are right then i have mistakenly accrued the 20m fine as one time items in q3 opex. that would move to q4.

i think analysts will update models. the process is: 1. enter new numbers. 2. pick up phone and tell your best customers so they can position. 3. release report/update publicly. i'd guess that process has started. or that i my forecasts are somehow badly flawed, which is where we need shorts to help out.

Jonas thinks you may be correct :

5. Compared with MS 3Q forecast, the 8,192 total delivery beat (all models) could drive $600mm of incremental revenue and at least $200mm of incremental pretax, potentially making Tesla OP Positive on a GAAP basis for 3Q vs. our forecast of nearly $100mm US GAAP OP loss.

As does Elon:

 

[larmor]

well the stock did just go up 40 points in 2 days, so not surprised its slowed it's pace.

note the highest street (non gaap) estimate is -38c. there's nearly $2 of real estate between my non-gaap estimates and the street.

i may be wrong again but i think there's a chance the analyst community realizes the truth is probably in the middle somewhere.

Is that street estimate backed up by FactSet? The new standard in veracity...

 

[luvb2b]

Jonas thinks you may be correct

did that note come out today? no rating/price target change though?

@larmor street estimates i took from yahoo.