Lots of predictions here. Brave.
Mark his words.
Mark his words.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
No, I don't have to agree with that at all, Maybe I'm biased, but there are many people, some professionals, who also don't believe it.
No, don't have to agree with that either, and @luvb2b provides convincing numbers that oppose it. Oh, and by the way, the reason they aren't already profitable is that they are already investing in all those project you mention. They will be profitable after the projected spending.
So you're accusing Elon of lying again?
This debating tactic is called "begging the question". You assume your own premise, that they need to raise cash, and then argue that this means they will have to do things because of the need to raise cash. Fallacious. Mod: we don't appreciate that around here.
Well, this part I don't actually disagree with, because it makes no sense. They are raising production as fast as they can, but at the same time there seems to be evidence that they are shipping as much as possible out of the country, presumably so that they won't ship the 200,000th US car until Q3. They haven't said so, because if they did it would invite a host of people complaining about them gaming the tax code, but that doesn't mean they aren't doing it. But anyway, I still don't understand what you are trying to say. If you do feel like answering, though, please keep it factual.
OK, I stopped reading, because everyone who is remotely unbiased agrees that they don't.
bdy0627
Active Member
Well, you sure fizzled out. This is FUD plain and simple.
There are. It is very well established fact that Tesla is severely restricting inventory online. Walk into any Tesla shop and talk to them about buying a car in 4 weeks. They will provide you with numerous cars that match your configuration.
Canadian deliveries are really the only thing we have going. Tesla sells about 11-12k S/X per quarter. There is not a single indication of Tesla diverting those outside of the US so far. Together with the 10-11k Model 3s already delivired and the 2k already scheduled for delivery in June means we are already past the 200k point.
Singer3000
Member
If if if... What if the formal guidance given by the Directors at the Company AGM turns out to be true and Q3/4 are both GAAP profitable and CF+? And what if H1 2019 is the same, because the "backlog" of demand for high value models still needs to be exhausted in as yet untapped international markets? In the meantime, what if Model Y reservations bring in $500m-$1bn of working capital, with a China factory announcement bring further positive sentiment? All of which implies that TSLA is added to S&P 500, after a year of profitable operations. Meanwhile, what if customer word-of mouth means the queue for a car is barely dented... and what if you are right and $3bn of equity is raised for the China factory but it's raised at an all time high?
Do these possibilities not make you worry about your short position, even if you are right that in X years time, demand for the 3 will deteriorate / the ASP and margins turn out to be rubbish? How long do you keep waiting to be proven right and at what cost in personal mark to market? What if you're waiting to be proven right long enough for Tesla to fine tune production sufficiently for even $35k models to have a 25% gross margin? Are you still hanging on for the demand argument then, even as a tsunami of Model Y's awaits the Chinese market? A market that has legislated to phase out diesel/gasoline?
It's a fun game this "If Game" but is likely to prove expensive for someone.
The S&P rules state it should be GAAP profitable over the sum of the last four quarters and should be profitable the most recent quarter.
https://us.spindices.com/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf
Singer3000
Member
Agreed, though it might be a stretch to get there if you have to include the Q1/2 2018 losses, hence it’s probably a mid next year timeframe. Either way, possibly soon enough that it should be part of everyone’s thinking.
Maybe, but I feel I have brought plenty of other very low quality posts to the forum as well.
You did, and you know what I disagree with, also you are at 31m and 180m for Q3 and Q4 respectively, both with very rosy assumptions of things like Services GM improving drastically 17-18% GM on the M3, flat SGA, flat RD
Even one of those optimistic assumptions doesnt come true and you are out of GAAP profitability, my guess is a few and then you are WAAAAY out of GAAP profitability.
Still, I like when people put their thoughts out there to be evaluated, and all i did is offer a theory. I am not married to it or anything.
All I ask is that if the 200k car is delivered in Q2, what is your thesis on the reasoning? We can wait till month end to answer, because it makes no sense to deliver the 200k car in June.
What? Where do you get this information? Mark as agree to disagree on opinion without a source.
This is a research thing.
It is known that for some reason tesla has always avoided putting all of their inventory on their site. Previously it was thought this was to keep the 'supply constrained' narrative alive. Now, not so sure.
Here is a scrape of the real inventory available
EV-CPO.com - Tesla New, Used, and CPO Inventory Listings
Also, Model 3's are going below sticker in auction now, so the problems might be worse than you think......
bdy0627
Active Member
To the bolded, what? It's a theory (likely not even relevant because i cant imagine anyone thinking selling 200k in Q2 makes sense), how can I post an accurate theory? This place is so bizarre, Musk lies non stop and if I question his claim on CF everyone says "Oh so you are saying Musk is a liar?!?!?!?"
Um, yes.
Then if I post something as pure conjecture and qualify it as such, im accused of being a liar? Bizarre.
Also, I dont think anyone would care about gaming the tax code other than people who are anti-EV's/subsidies in general. I am super ok with gaming it in fact think it would be silly not to.
Double agreed.
Due to the widespread inaccurate S&P criteria on the web, I tend to post anytime it looks like the 4 quarters each positive requirement fallacy is referenced.
There seem to be a few ways to do it in <4 quarters of profitability:
2 quarter scenario:
Q2 barely negative, Q3 + Q4 exceed Q1 '18.
3 quarter scenarios:
Q2 barely positive, Q3 + Q4 exceed Q1 '18
Q2 negative, Q3 + Q4 + Q1 '19 exceed Q2
4 quarter scenarios:
Q2 barely positive, Q3, Q4, Q1 '19 needed (Q3 + Q4 < Q1 '18 + Q2 '18 )
Q2 really negative, Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2 needed (Q3 + Q4 +Q1 '19 < Q2 '18)
Only if Q2 is really negative (or negative with Q3, Q4, Q1 '19 barely profitable), does it take past Q1 '19 for Tesla to be sum of 4 quarter profitable.
Next couple of months will be interesting!
agree no point to discuss further now.
use any tool that allows you to configure teslas from different geographies.
thanks for pointing me to the ev-cpo site. you were right. i was exaggerating. there are actually 2 new model x available in north america. 0 model s.
model 3's should go below sticker, b/c the net cost to purchase is $7500 below the sticker for now.
also, are there any comparable cars you know that sell above sticker prices at auction? key word, "comparable".
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Rather, 2 new-ish Model S (P100D @ $148k apiece for cars that have a couple thousand miles on them). No new Model X.
It remains interesting to see how different our projections are from mainstream analysts. For example, Adam Jones is still forecasting a production rate of only 2800/wk in Q3 and 3800 in Q4. No surprise then that he is also forecasting a loss for both quarters and negative cash flow. What do we know?
Company guidance is about as useless as it gets. Management has repeatedly guided for production rates only to be admit later they were completly wrong. 5k/week by June who knows. They may be right, they may be wrong on they may mean something that we interpret incorrectly (burst vs sustained, throughput individual stations versus throughput of the line as a whole, etc...)
But we know that Tesla is taking extraordinary steps to increase production rates. It shifted workers from S/X line, it introduced extra shifts, flew in additional equipment, installed additional assembly lines (both in the gigafactory and Fremont), ditched an unworkeable conveyor system. Two things are indeniable : 1) production rate did increase 2) these measures must come at significant costs to the company.
Hence why I model a production rate that is higher than Adam Jones, but at the same time I have reduced my margins. Unwinding the costs that come with extraordinary measures take time. It means waiting for more efficient stations plus technological fixes, then retraining and reallocating your workers. That won't happen overnight.
Company guidance is about as useless as it gets. Management has repeatedly guided for production rates only to be admit later they were completly wrong. 5k/week by June who knows. They may be right, they may be wrong on they may mean something that we interpret incorrectly (burst vs sustained, throughput individual stations versus throughput of the line as a whole, etc...)
But we know that Tesla is taking extraordinary steps to increase production rates. It shifted workers from S/X line, it introduced extra shifts, flew in additional equipment, installed additional assembly lines (both in the gigafactory and Fremont), ditched an unworkeable conveyor system. Two things are indeniable : 1) production rate did increase 2) these measures must come at significant costs to the company.
Hence why I model a production rate that is higher than Adam Jones, but at the same time I have reduced my margins. Unwinding the costs that come with extraordinary measures take time. It means waiting for more efficient stations plus technological fixes, then retraining and reallocating your workers. That won't happen overnight.
they wouldn't divert s/x that could be sold into the usa. s/x have higher margins and cash flow vs a 3, so given a choice, you sell every s/x you can and defer 3's as needed. i believe this is what you're observing with 3's going to canada in droves.
Yes, but the numbers don't work out. Per the shareholder meeting slide, they already delivered nearly 11k Model 3's in the US in the first two months. We know they average 10-12k Model S/X in the USA. Those two alone put them over the 200k limit. And that's without any June Model 3 deliveries (@Troy is already seeing evidence for about 2000 of those). To stay under 200k they have to divert some S/X as well.
Didn't they allude to this already. On the q1 letter they said there would be a temporary drop in x & s deliveries due to creating a more "linear flow of deliveries."
