There was an article today in electrek about how Norway had been getting cars all through the quarter.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
using inside ev's numbers and including some allowance for roadster, i show they have room to deliver 9k cars in the usa in june. they could deliver 12k s/x in the usa and not go over, and you could sprinkle on another 2k 3's and still be fine.
i think you're wrong, and i don't know why but our data seems to diverge regularly these days.
in other news i think i can reliably estimate 23k+ deliveries this quarter for s & x. it's 1k above my prior forecast. still working on stuff to take a guess at model 3 deliveries.
i think you're wrong, and i don't know why but our data seems to diverge regularly these days.
in other news i think i can reliably estimate 23k+ deliveries this quarter for s & x. it's 1k above my prior forecast. still working on stuff to take a guess at model 3 deliveries.
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We aren't. I did my research and I'm now quite sure of it.
Remember, we are guessing on the US/non-US split, because Tesla's never actually released the numbers.
I'll go back to the InsideEVs estimates, with the caveat that these are all estimates. But they're the most careful estimates out there, reconciled against every piece of public information.
First of all, note that Roadsters sold in 2008 and 2009 don't count against the 200K limit.
2010-2011: unknown numbers. InsideEVs guesses 1900 but that includes cars sold in 2008-2009, of which there were nearly 1000, so maybe 900?
2012: 2650
2013: 17650 -- uncertainty on US split in Q4
2014: 16689
2015: 25202 + 214
2016: 28896 + 18223
2017: 27060 + 21315 + 1772
That's about 160571 so far.
2018 Q1: 17980
That's 178551. For the most recent numbers there's even more guesswork involved because there's no quarterly data to reconcile with.
2018 April/May Model S/X: 5425
2018 April/May Model 3: 10125
That's 188676.
Tesla is trying to stop the "end of quarter rush", and this is already showing up in the April/May delivery data. So a reasonable guess for June would be 1600 S and 1600 X, which would bring us to 191876. If Tesla did the "end of quarter rush" with 3000 S and 3000 S, it would bring us to 194676. Add 2000 Model 3 scheduled for US delivery in June and you get 193876 or 194676.
There is room for error there (even if there were 1900 US Roadsters in 2010-2011 which I think there weren't). Tesla could be shipping a lot more US Model S and X without disrupting this. I'm pretty sure Tesla is just under the 200K and will hit 200K in early July, probably the first week of July. The shipment of Model 3s to Canada is clearly in order to put off hitting 200K in the US before July.
ValueAnalyst
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If so, why did Tesla flood Model 3's to only Ontario, which is facing an uncertain tax credit future, and not the other Canadian cities?
Youch! That was my least likely scenario. But you know me, lone resident on planet mongo.
Ontario demand exceeds supply?, and the potential tax cut off could be as soon as June 8 I think.
@neroden in cross-checking your work i found i have an error in both my work and yours.
i fixed my error so i match you through q1 2018.
here's your error:
178551 + 10125 = 188676 but you didn't add 5425 s/x.
so that leaves only about 6k to deliver to the usa, not 9-10k as i thought. my delivery estimate for s/x has to come down more i think: the 23k i just posted is probably too high given corrected calculations on the 200k count.
i fixed my error so i match you through q1 2018.
here's your error:
That's 178551. For the most recent numbers there's even more guesswork involved because there's no quarterly data to reconcile with.
2018 April/May Model S/X: 5425
2018 April/May Model 3: 10125
That's 188676.
2018 April/May Model S/X: 5425
2018 April/May Model 3: 10125
That's 188676.
178551 + 10125 = 188676 but you didn't add 5425 s/x.
so that leaves only about 6k to deliver to the usa, not 9-10k as i thought. my delivery estimate for s/x has to come down more i think: the 23k i just posted is probably too high given corrected calculations on the 200k count.
Thanks for catching my error! That actually accounts for why my final number seemd to be about 6000 short!
So if I assume "no end of quarter rush", 1600 S and 1600 X to the US in June, and if I'm right about the Roadsters (only about 900 to the US in 2010-2011), I get to 199301. Cutting it close, but we have all the clues that they're trying to do so.
Don't be surprised if you see a delivery embargo in the US last week of June; I have already heard about people with July 1 delivery dates, which is a Sunday; there may be deliberate delays to make sure they don't hit 200K by a whisker.
so i get a total of 177,651 through q1 2018, excluding roadsters. that matches you.
then something has gone awry.
i use 15,370 s/x/3 for apr/may 18 according to inside ev's. the 3 number could be 500-700 under based on an analysis of tesla's agm presentation. but let's just use inside evs.
177,651 + 15,370 = 193,021 excluding roadsters thru may 2018
add 1.5k for roadsters
194,621 is roadster/s/x/3 prior to june 2018
max out s/x in june 2018 at 5k = 199,621 and push the 3 deliveries into july.
then something has gone awry.
i use 15,370 s/x/3 for apr/may 18 according to inside ev's. the 3 number could be 500-700 under based on an analysis of tesla's agm presentation. but let's just use inside evs.
177,651 + 15,370 = 193,021 excluding roadsters thru may 2018
add 1.5k for roadsters
194,621 is roadster/s/x/3 prior to june 2018
max out s/x in june 2018 at 5k = 199,621 and push the 3 deliveries into july.
The absolute best work on this can be found by @Troy . I know he is not always appreciated on this forum due to his style, but you can't fault his work. It is meticuously sourced, transparant and links to all data and sources he uses. See here. He has Tesla at 180762 at the end of last quarter. But he includes eligable roadsters (delivered after 2010). That's close enough to your number that it is in the margin of error. Let's assume a very conservate 200 roadsters and then take the average between two. 179306 agree?.
Next more unkowns. For Model 3 in April/May, the Tesla slide from the meeting is a much better source than inside-ev. Agree? Again outstanding work to be found here. Includes methodology that I can't fault at all. Please let me know on what part of the methodology you disagree. Otherwise 10610 it is for me.
Tesla is still delivering Model 3's in June in the US. Troy lists 243 confirmed deliveries for the month (that's opposed to 681 for May). If the sample rate is the same this alone is evidence for over 2000 US based Model 3 deliveries in June. Round down to 2000. And note, this number can only go up from here.
For Model S/X we don't know. Yes there is insideEV but they regularly fudge up the numbers. But we know that Tesla did NOT shift cars to non-domestic markets. Average waiting times in China nor Europe did not go down (as one would expect) nor did average waiting times go up in the States. In fact even in May you could still order a car and have it delivered this quarter. Tesla also happily continues to sell inventory.
And no, @luvb2b pointing to the online availability is a BIG mistake here that you continue to make, please visit any showroom or just read the threads on the forum. In fact, I track overall production and deliveries as reported by Tesla in the shareholder letters. At the end of Q1, Tesla had produced 12053 more S/X than reported deliveries. With 4060 cars in transit this leaves a pool of nearly 8000 cars used in loaner and inventory duty. Walk into any sales center today, trust me you CAN buy those cars.
So all in all, I see NO indication of Tesla shuffling cars to non-domestic markets. Yes, there is some talk of smoothing the end-of-quarter push. but the net effect of that happened on the Q1/Q2 transition : read the Q1 delivery 10-K from April 3rd. If there is no indication that 2018Q2 is anything special, let's look at what S/X deliveries did last year : 11600.
Adding it all together : 179306 + 10610 + 2000 + 11600 = 203516. It's still possible, but Tesla needs to put a hard stop right about now on assigning deliveries in June to stay under the 200k.
Next more unkowns. For Model 3 in April/May, the Tesla slide from the meeting is a much better source than inside-ev. Agree? Again outstanding work to be found here. Includes methodology that I can't fault at all. Please let me know on what part of the methodology you disagree. Otherwise 10610 it is for me.
Tesla is still delivering Model 3's in June in the US. Troy lists 243 confirmed deliveries for the month (that's opposed to 681 for May). If the sample rate is the same this alone is evidence for over 2000 US based Model 3 deliveries in June. Round down to 2000. And note, this number can only go up from here.
For Model S/X we don't know. Yes there is insideEV but they regularly fudge up the numbers. But we know that Tesla did NOT shift cars to non-domestic markets. Average waiting times in China nor Europe did not go down (as one would expect) nor did average waiting times go up in the States. In fact even in May you could still order a car and have it delivered this quarter. Tesla also happily continues to sell inventory.
And no, @luvb2b pointing to the online availability is a BIG mistake here that you continue to make, please visit any showroom or just read the threads on the forum. In fact, I track overall production and deliveries as reported by Tesla in the shareholder letters. At the end of Q1, Tesla had produced 12053 more S/X than reported deliveries. With 4060 cars in transit this leaves a pool of nearly 8000 cars used in loaner and inventory duty. Walk into any sales center today, trust me you CAN buy those cars.
So all in all, I see NO indication of Tesla shuffling cars to non-domestic markets. Yes, there is some talk of smoothing the end-of-quarter push. but the net effect of that happened on the Q1/Q2 transition : read the Q1 delivery 10-K from April 3rd. If there is no indication that 2018Q2 is anything special, let's look at what S/X deliveries did last year : 11600.
Adding it all together : 179306 + 10610 + 2000 + 11600 = 203516. It's still possible, but Tesla needs to put a hard stop right about now on assigning deliveries in June to stay under the 200k.
I tried but the numbers did not work out well for me, so I assume I have bad assumptions. And garbage in = garbage out right. My line of thoughts : start with 26500 S/X deliveries with an average of 82kWh = 2173MWh for 16% or 5840MWh for 43%. At 75kWh per model 3 this are nearly 78k cars.
Idk why everyone is so certain that inside EVs historical numbers are accurate within 1%.... makes no sense for Tesla to hit 200k within two weeks of a new quarter. What a huge waste that would be. Common sense is all we need on this I think.
bdy0627
Active Member
Totally agree. No way do they go over 200k if they are within a few thousand at EOQ. I would be absolutely shocked if they didn't delay deliveries by a week or two to ensure they stay under.
I agree it would be shocking to go over the 200k with just a few thousand as my calculation projects. At the same time, the numbers are quite solid. The margin of error on deliveries is smaller than you'd think since a lot of numbers were officially released either by Tesla or by official organisations. We'll see.
Given that both Troy and InsideEVs admit that their US/non-US breakdowns are *estimates*, and they're close enough to be within the margin of error, I'm going to assume that
(a) Tesla knows what the real number is
(b) It is on the side which allows Tesla to avoid hitting 200K until July 1.
Note that the accumulated difference in estimates between Troy and mine (based on InsideEVs) is around 2000 cars -- only 1% of the 200K, but enough to be significant regarding the date when they hit 200K.
We should also consider how utterly incompetent Tesla is before making too many assumptions
