sorry i've been very out of touch lately. i haven't spent nearly as much time on tesla as i did in the past, and as i mentioned before tesla had taken up too much of my time and treasure to warrant a continued overcommitment.
here's an update of my model, taking into account q4 guidance in elon's letter. my basic methodology for forecasting earnings has remained the same. post elon's letter, i am disappointed with what must be a flattening gross margin trajectory on the model 3, particularly considering the higher end nature of the configurations.
the best highlight is what i would expect to be ~2b in cash flow from operations. my apologies for any glaring errors i have missed - again with much less time in much less quality should be expected out.
edit: still don't know how to get rid of the extra whitespace.
… |
s deliveries |
x deliveries |
s+x deliveries |
3 deliveries |
3 production |
lease s/x % veh |
avg price s+x |
avg price model 3 |
|
revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
1 time autopilot |
zev credits |
total auto |
|
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services/other |
total revenue |
|
cost of revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
total auto |
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services & other |
total cost of rev |
|
gross profit |
|
auto gaap ex 3 gm |
auto-zev ex 3 gm |
model 3 gm |
auto-zev incl 3 gm |
storage gm |
scty gm |
grohmann gm |
services gm |
|
opex |
tesla r&d |
tesla sg&a |
1 time costs |
solarcity r&d |
solarcity sg&a |
total opex |
|
op income |
|
interest inc |
interest exp |
scty interest |
other income exp |
1time scty gain |
pretax income |
income tax |
net income |
non-cont int. |
net inc to common |
|
basic shares |
diluted shares |
|
diluted gaap eps |
gaap net income |
+ stock based comp |
+ one time scty |
non-gaap net income |
non-gaap diluted eps |
|
|
balance sheet |
current assets |
cash & eq. |
restricted cash |
accts rcvbl |
inventory |
prepaids+other |
total current assets |
|
op lease vehicles |
solar energy sys |
pp&e |
intangible assets |
goodwill |
mypower rcvbls |
restricted cash |
other assets |
total assets |
|
current liabiliites |
accts payable |
accrued liabs+other |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
cust deposits |
curr debt+leases |
curr solar bonds |
total current liabs |
|
lt debt+leases |
solar bonds |
rel party conv debt |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
other lt liabilities |
comm stk warrants |
capital lease oblg |
total liabilities |
|
commits/contings |
rdmbl ncis in subs |
conv senior notes |
nci in subsidiaries |
|
common equity |
|
|
cash flow statement |
cash flows from ops |
net loss |
dep/amortization |
stock-based comp |
am of debt discount |
inv write-down |
loss on disposals |
forex loss (gain) |
loss on acq scty |
non-cash int/other |
|
chgs in op as/lb |
accts rcbl |
inv / op leases |
prepaids/other ca |
mypower rcvbls + other |
accts pybl/accr liabs |
deferred revenue |
customer deposits |
other lt liabs |
net cash from ops |
|
cash flows from inv |
pp&e purchases |
purchase solar sys |
net cash from inv |
|
cash flows from fin |
stock issued |
debt issued |
debt repayments |
rel pty solar repaids |
coll lease borrowing |
stock option excrs |
capital lease paids |
stock+debt issue cost |
investment by nci in subs |
dist to nci in subs |
buyouts of nci in subs |
net cash from fin |
forex effect |
net change in cash |
cash & eq start |
cash & eq end |
[TD2]
luv q4-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
Sep-18
[/TD2][TD2]
Jun-18
[/TD2][TD2]
Mar-18
[/TD2]
[TD2]13,500[/TD2][TD2]14,495[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2]
[TD2]14,050[/TD2][TD2]13,215[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2]
[TD2]
27,550
[/TD2][TD2]
27,710
[/TD2][TD2]
22,319
[/TD2][TD2]
21,815
[/TD2]
[TD2]
63,150
[/TD2][TD2]
56,065
[/TD2][TD2]
18,449
[/TD2][TD2]
8,182
[/TD2]
[TD2]
60,000
[/TD2][TD2]
53,239
[/TD2][TD2]
28,578
[/TD2][TD2]
9,766
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.09
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2]
[TD2]
104.00
[/TD2][TD2]
104.80
[/TD2][TD2]
105.14
[/TD2][TD2]
105.42
[/TD2]
[TD2]
55.80
[/TD2][TD2]
56.78
[/TD2][TD2]
55.80
[/TD2][TD2]
56.80
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,550,028[/TD2][TD2]2,642,647[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2]
[TD2]3,523,770[/TD2][TD2]3,183,389[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2]
[TD2]201,737[/TD2][TD2]220,461[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]52,269[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2]
[TD2]
6,375,535
[/TD2][TD2]
6,098,766
[/TD2][TD2]
3,357,681
[/TD2][TD2]
2,735,317
[/TD2]
[TD2]157,500[/TD2][TD2]105,317[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2]
[TD2]205,200[/TD2][TD2]294,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]326,330[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2]
[TD2]
7,038,235
[/TD2][TD2]
6,824,413
[/TD2][TD2]
4,002,231
[/TD2][TD2]
3,408,751
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,801,159[/TD2][TD2]1,875,125[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2]
[TD2]2,755,588[/TD2][TD2]2,530,794[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2]
[TD2]125,077[/TD2][TD2]119,283[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,681,824
[/TD2][TD2]
4,525,202
[/TD2][TD2]
2,666,654
[/TD2][TD2]
2,195,893
[/TD2]
[TD2]166,950[/TD2][TD2]124,754[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2]
[TD2]143,640[/TD2][TD2]205,800[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2]
[TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2]
[TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]433,992[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,378,414
[/TD2][TD2]
5,300,748
[/TD2][TD2]
3,383,301
[/TD2][TD2]
2,952,225
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,659,821
[/TD2][TD2]
1,523,665
[/TD2][TD2]
618,930
[/TD2][TD2]
456,526
[/TD2]
[TD2]32.5%[/TD2][TD2]31.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2]
[TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.3%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2]
[TD2]21.8%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]25.4%[/TD2][TD2]25.2%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2]
[TD2]-6.0%[/TD2][TD2]-18.5%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2]
[TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]315,848[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2]
[TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]599,876[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2]
[TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]26,184[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2]
[TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,200,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,106,908
[/TD2][TD2]
1,240,322
[/TD2][TD2]
1,053,500
[/TD2]
[TD2]
459,821
[/TD2][TD2]
416,757
[/TD2][TD2]
-621,392
[/TD2][TD2]
-596,974
[/TD2]
[TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,907[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2]
[TD2]-122,000[/TD2][TD2]-122,220[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2]
[TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]22,876[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
278,821
[/TD2][TD2]
271,320
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,999
[/TD2][TD2]
-779,022
[/TD2]
[TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]16,647[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2]
[TD2]
258,822
[/TD2][TD2]
254,673
[/TD2][TD2]
-742,706
[/TD2][TD2]
-784,627
[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-56,843[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2]
[TD2]
308,823
[/TD2][TD2]
311,516
[/TD2][TD2]
-717,539
[/TD2][TD2]
-709,551
[/TD2]
[TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,893[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]178,196[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]
1.69
[/TD2][TD2]
1.75
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.22
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.19
[/TD2]
[TD2]308,823[/TD2][TD2]311,516[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2]
[TD2]2,08,000[/TD2][TD2]2,04,728[/TD2][TD2]1,97,344[/TD2][TD2]1,41,639[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]516,823[/TD2][TD2]516,244[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2]
[TD2]
2.82
[/TD2][TD2]
2.90
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.06
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.36
[/TD2]
[TD2]4,094,576[/TD2][TD2]2,967,504[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2]
[TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]158,627[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2]
[TD2]925,576[/TD2][TD2]1,155,001[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2]
[TD2]2,947,076[/TD2][TD2]3,314,127[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2]
[TD2]379,455[/TD2][TD2]325,232[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2]
[TD2]
8,496,682
[/TD2][TD2]
7,920,491
[/TD2][TD2]
6,699,797
[/TD2][TD2]
6,383,920
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,255,022[/TD2][TD2]2,186,137[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2]
[TD2]6,298,522[/TD2][TD2]6,301,537[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2]
[TD2]11,777,601[/TD2][TD2]11,246,295[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2]
[TD2]3,20,000[/TD2][TD2]2,91,476[/TD2][TD2]3,00,406[/TD2][TD2]3,46,428[/TD2]
[TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]65,226[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2]
[TD2]415,897[/TD2][TD2]422,897[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2]
[TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]396,835[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2]
[TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]431,819[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2]
[TD2]
30,297,084
[/TD2][TD2]
29,262,713
[/TD2][TD2]
27,910,000
[/TD2][TD2]
27,271,429
[/TD2]
[TD2]3,654,374[/TD2][TD2]3,596,984[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2]
[TD2]2,217,464[/TD2][TD2]1,990,095[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2]
[TD2]541,205[/TD2][TD2]570,920[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2]
[TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]604,949[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2]
[TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]905,838[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2]
[TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,106,538[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2]
[TD2]
9,478,043
[/TD2][TD2]
9,775,324
[/TD2][TD2]
9,141,362
[/TD2][TD2]
8,650,359
[/TD2]
[TD2]96,00,000[/TD2][TD2]96,69,879[/TD2][TD2]95,10,696[/TD2][TD2]87,61,070[/TD2]
[TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2]
[TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,634[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2]
[TD2]789,258[/TD2][TD2]950,126[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2]
[TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]455,762[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2]
[TD2]3,300,000[/TD2][TD2]2,555,319[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
23,819,920
[/TD2][TD2]
23,409,144
[/TD2][TD2]
22,642,887
[/TD2][TD2]
21,551,021
[/TD2]
[TD2]540,000[/TD2][TD2]551,264[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2]
[TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]793,467[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,037,164
[/TD2][TD2]
4,508,838
[/TD2][TD2]
3,906,421
[/TD2][TD2]
4,450,695
[/TD2]
[TD2]258,822[/TD2][TD2]254,673[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2]
[TD2]494,659[/TD2][TD2]502,825[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2]
[TD2]2,08,000[/TD2][TD2]2,04,728[/TD2][TD2]1,97,344[/TD2][TD2]1,41,639[/TD2]
[TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2]
[TD2]33,141[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2]
[TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]77,737[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2]
[TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2]
[TD2]229,425[/TD2][TD2]-585,127[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2]
[TD2]298,166[/TD2][TD2]106,426[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2]
[TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2]
[TD2]234,759[/TD2][TD2]691,607[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2]
[TD2]59,162[/TD2][TD2]-36,291[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,981,135
[/TD2][TD2]
1,391,281
[/TD2][TD2]
-129,664
[/TD2][TD2]
-398,376
[/TD2]
[TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-510,271[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2]
[TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-49,494[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2]
[TD2]
-760,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-560,965
[/TD2][TD2]
-682,817
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,637
[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]114,942[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2]
[TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]-195,760[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-142,568[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2]
[TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]44,294[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]94,874[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2]
[TD2]
-142,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-84,218
[/TD2][TD2]
398,622
[/TD2][TD2]
371,660
[/TD2]
[TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]-6,370[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,127,072
[/TD2][TD2]
739,728
[/TD2][TD2]
-436,470
[/TD2][TD2]
-745,251
[/TD2]
[TD2]
2,967,504
[/TD2][TD2]
2,236,424
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2][TD2]
3,367,914
[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,094,576
[/TD2][TD2]
2,967,504
[/TD2][TD2]
2,236,424
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2]