Other topic : what's everybody's feeling about the S/X? Q1 was supposedly highest net order quarter ever. Yet deliveries (once you account for a slightly lower pipeline) were flat q-o-q. On top of that we're down slightly y-o-y. And remember last year was supposedly an anomaly with a shortfall in large battery manufacturing. Neither was production a constraining factor since it outpaced deliveries with 1000-2000 units for a sequand straight quarter. This makes me fear that Tesla will have to dig into aggressive lease deals and assorted 'showroom discounts' again to make their 100k target. If so, it could easily put a few percentage points downwards pressure on S and X.
S/X produced, delivered, transit from number's letters starting in '16
Q1: ??? , 14,820, 2,615
Q2: 18,345, 14,370, 5,150
Q3: 25,185, 24,500, 5,500
Q4: 24,882, 22,200, 2,750
Q1: 25,418, 25,000, 4,650
Q2: 25,708, 22,000, 3,500
3,000 (100kWh pack)
Q3: 25,076, 25,930, 4,820
Q4: 22,140, 28,320, 2,520
Q1: 24,728, 21,800, 4,069
Q2: 24,761, 22,300, 3,892
What is your pipeline adjustment? The base deliveries and in-transit YoY are up for S/X. Production numbers are back within 4% of the high water mark, post 17Q4.
It does look like they are increasing loaner or inventory numbers...
If the tax credit does not get extended, I see that as sufficient catalyst to hit the 100k delivered mark. Especially with end of year tax opportunities for the X. (Short term possession allowing for 100% business use and 100% first year depreciation). Could explain the discrepancy between built/delivered and in-transit to catch 11th hour orders now that the 200k trigger has passed (relative to Q2).
Edit: corrected 17Q2 in-transit number. Does shift things.