Near-future quarterly financial projections

[jeewee3000]

ps : It is not clear what Musk means when he says break-even. Is that gaap or non-gaap. May be I'll write to their investor relations to get clarification.

Sorry to be late to the party, but I was reading through the last pages of this thread and came across the above multiple times in different wordings.

The Q2 Update letter states this clearly IMO: (part "OUTLOOK")

Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding.
We continue to aim for positive GAAP net income in Q3 and the following quarters, although continuous volume growth, capacity expansion and cash generation will remain the main focus.

Doesn't that mean TSLA thinks they'll break-even GAAP-wise? Apologies if I'm missing something, I'm far from an accountant.

 

[EVNow]

Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding.
We continue to aim for positive GAAP net income in Q3 and the following quarters, although continuous volume growth, capacity expansion and cash generation will remain the main focus.

Doesn't that mean TSLA thinks they'll break-even GAAP-wise? Apologies if I'm missing something, I'm far from an accountant.

I think it is a generic statement. It is possible Musk was talking about GAAP …. but that could be because he thought more of the FSD revenue could be recognized in Q3.

V10 has just started rolling out - but with only smart summon and no other FSD feature. That too only in US. So, not sure it given them enough extra income to go from non-GAAP break-even to GAAP.

 

[Nate the Great]

@EVNow, did you happen to get in touch with Tesla IR?

 

[luvb2b]

updated model for ~99k total deliveries based on today's email. the 110k order rate number is fantastic and just as important as the delivery count. there were headwinds this quarter from a us tax credit dropoff and likely some waiting for local manufacturing and lower prices in china. if they grew units into those 2 headwinds, that's fantastic.

please note my s/x asp estimate is based on "everything except model 3" divided by s/x units. it will be biased higher due to deferred revenue recognition, accessory sales, etc. basically anything not captured in model 3 revenue goes in there and so i cannot match it exactly to what they are selling.

…

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

avg price s+x (calc'd)

avg price model 3 (set)

non-zev credits per delivery

zev credits

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

zev+nonzev credits

1 time revenue

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto ex 3 ex credits gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

model 3 gm ex credits

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]9,500[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]9,500[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 19,000 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 80,000 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 87,000 [/TD2][TD2] 72,531 [/TD2][TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2] [TD2] 93.00 [/TD2][TD2] 97.21 [/TD2][TD2] 113.65 [/TD2][TD2] 108.65 [/TD2] [TD2] 49.00 [/TD2][TD2] 50.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.30 [/TD2] [TD2] 1.20 [/TD2][TD2] 1.17 [/TD2][TD2] 3.18 [/TD2][TD2] 1.04 [/TD2] [TD2]10,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,412[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2] [TD2]1,585,534[/TD2][TD2]1,545,857[/TD2][TD2]1,219,184[/TD2][TD2]2,604,255[/TD2] [TD2]3,541,519[/TD2][TD2]3,575,051[/TD2][TD2]2,574,076[/TD2][TD2]3,374,248[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]128,800[/TD2][TD2]111,219[/TD2][TD2]215,981[/TD2][TD2]94,968[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-64,100[/TD2][TD2]-500,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 5,466,946 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]265,000[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]103,208[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]605,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,480,154 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]1,300,138[/TD2][TD2]1,264,570[/TD2][TD2]1,051,304[/TD2][TD2]1,908,505[/TD2] [TD2]2,974,876[/TD2][TD2]3,038,793[/TD2][TD2]2,213,705[/TD2][TD2]2,750,012[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-49,600[/TD2][TD2]-408,800[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,384,782 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]235,850[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]84,631[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]735,300[/TD2][TD2]732,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,451,563 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,028,591 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2][TD2]13.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.7%[/TD2] [TD2]19.8%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]26.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.6%[/TD2][TD2]33.9%[/TD2][TD2]31.0%[/TD2] [TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-14.0%[/TD2][TD2]-21.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] 32,432 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -149,185 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -169,185 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -189,185 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.06 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-189,185[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]20,678[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] 0.12 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

 

[Doggydogworld]

updated model for ~99k total deliveries based on today's email. the 110k order rate number is fantastic and just as important as the delivery count. there were headwinds this quarter from a us tax credit dropoff and likely some waiting for local manufacturing and lower prices in china. if they grew units into those 2 headwinds, that's fantastic.

please note my s/x asp estimate is based on "everything except model 3" divided by s/x units. it will be biased higher due to deferred revenue recognition, accessory sales, etc. basically anything not captured in model 3 revenue goes in there and so i cannot match it exactly to what they are selling.

…

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

avg price s+x (calc'd)

avg price model 3 (set)

non-zev credits per delivery

zev credits

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

zev+nonzev credits

1 time revenue

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto ex 3 ex credits gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

model 3 gm ex credits

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]9,500[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]9,500[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 19,000 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 80,000 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 87,000 [/TD2][TD2] 72,531 [/TD2][TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2] [TD2] 93.00 [/TD2][TD2] 97.21 [/TD2][TD2] 113.65 [/TD2][TD2] 108.65 [/TD2] [TD2] 49.00 [/TD2][TD2] 50.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.30 [/TD2] [TD2] 1.20 [/TD2][TD2] 1.17 [/TD2][TD2] 3.18 [/TD2][TD2] 1.04 [/TD2] [TD2]10,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,412[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2] [TD2]1,585,534[/TD2][TD2]1,545,857[/TD2][TD2]1,219,184[/TD2][TD2]2,604,255[/TD2] [TD2]3,541,519[/TD2][TD2]3,575,051[/TD2][TD2]2,574,076[/TD2][TD2]3,374,248[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]128,800[/TD2][TD2]111,219[/TD2][TD2]215,981[/TD2][TD2]94,968[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-64,100[/TD2][TD2]-500,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 5,466,946 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]265,000[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]103,208[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]605,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,480,154 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]1,300,138[/TD2][TD2]1,264,570[/TD2][TD2]1,051,304[/TD2][TD2]1,908,505[/TD2] [TD2]2,974,876[/TD2][TD2]3,038,793[/TD2][TD2]2,213,705[/TD2][TD2]2,750,012[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-49,600[/TD2][TD2]-408,800[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,384,782 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]235,850[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]84,631[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]735,300[/TD2][TD2]732,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,451,563 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,028,591 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2][TD2]13.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.7%[/TD2] [TD2]19.8%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]26.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.6%[/TD2][TD2]33.9%[/TD2][TD2]31.0%[/TD2] [TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-14.0%[/TD2][TD2]-21.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] 32,432 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -149,185 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -169,185 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -189,185 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.06 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-189,185[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]20,678[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] 0.12 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

You assume 10% lease ratio for S/X and Model 3?

I split solar and energy storage differently (solar higher), but come out with a similar total amount.

A big slug of deferred EAP/FSD revenue recognition plus another emissions credit surprise could produce a GAAP profit. Since it seems Q4 will have GF3 startup costs they may decide to pull a bunch of cookies out of the jar in Q3.

 

[Reinhard]

updated model for ~99k total deliveries based on today's email. the 110k order rate number is fantastic and just as important as the delivery count. there were headwinds this quarter from a us tax credit dropoff and likely some waiting for local manufacturing and lower prices in china. if they grew units into those 2 headwinds, that's fantastic.

please note my s/x asp estimate is based on "everything except model 3" divided by s/x units. it will be biased higher due to deferred revenue recognition, accessory sales, etc. basically anything not captured in model 3 revenue goes in there and so i cannot match it exactly to what they are selling.

…

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

avg price s+x (calc'd)

avg price model 3 (set)

non-zev credits per delivery

zev credits

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

zev+nonzev credits

1 time revenue

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto ex 3 ex credits gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

model 3 gm ex credits

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]9,500[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]9,500[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 19,000 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 80,000 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 87,000 [/TD2][TD2] 72,531 [/TD2][TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2] [TD2] 93.00 [/TD2][TD2] 97.21 [/TD2][TD2] 113.65 [/TD2][TD2] 108.65 [/TD2] [TD2] 49.00 [/TD2][TD2] 50.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.30 [/TD2] [TD2] 1.20 [/TD2][TD2] 1.17 [/TD2][TD2] 3.18 [/TD2][TD2] 1.04 [/TD2] [TD2]10,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,412[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2] [TD2]1,585,534[/TD2][TD2]1,545,857[/TD2][TD2]1,219,184[/TD2][TD2]2,604,255[/TD2] [TD2]3,541,519[/TD2][TD2]3,575,051[/TD2][TD2]2,574,076[/TD2][TD2]3,374,248[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]128,800[/TD2][TD2]111,219[/TD2][TD2]215,981[/TD2][TD2]94,968[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-64,100[/TD2][TD2]-500,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 5,466,946 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]265,000[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]103,208[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]605,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,480,154 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]1,300,138[/TD2][TD2]1,264,570[/TD2][TD2]1,051,304[/TD2][TD2]1,908,505[/TD2] [TD2]2,974,876[/TD2][TD2]3,038,793[/TD2][TD2]2,213,705[/TD2][TD2]2,750,012[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-49,600[/TD2][TD2]-408,800[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,384,782 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]235,850[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]84,631[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]735,300[/TD2][TD2]732,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,451,563 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,028,591 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2][TD2]13.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.7%[/TD2] [TD2]19.8%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]26.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.6%[/TD2][TD2]33.9%[/TD2][TD2]31.0%[/TD2] [TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-14.0%[/TD2][TD2]-21.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] 32,432 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -149,185 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -169,185 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -189,185 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.06 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-189,185[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]20,678[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] 0.12 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

Why would Q3's S/X ASP be less than Q2s? There were a lot of pre-Raven discounting in Q2.

 

[jeewee3000]

Why would Q3's S/X ASP be less than Q2s? There were a lot of pre-Raven discounting in Q2.

Good point.

As long as the comments on the chart make luvb2b's chart look conservative, I'm happy.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Why would Q3's S/X ASP be less than Q2s? There were a lot of pre-Raven discounting in Q2.

1. Price cuts on 7/15
2. Higher SR+ mix in Europe

The pre-Raven discounting was mostly from higher list prices. The 100D discounts I saw were 10-15k, bringing them down to ~80k. That's roughly today's list price. ASP will move back up with Plaid, as Porsche is providing a nice umbrella.

 

[EVNow]

Why would Q3's S/X ASP be less than Q2s? There were a lot of pre-Raven discounting in Q2.

They probably sold quite a few pre-Raven in Q3 as well. Q2 ER said "majority" of pre-Raven were sold in Q2. Given piece cut in July, probably deeper discounts on pre-Raven in Q3 as well.

 

[luvb2b]

my estimates indicate a large stepdown in asp from 19q1 to 19q2. in my experience usually the shift is not fully realized in a single quarter (meaning for example asp went from 105k 2018dec31 to 90k 2019jun30. the q1 asp may get reported as 102k and the q2 as 93k as the trend goes lower but by the time you get a full quarter of 90k it settles out at 90k.

otherwise you are right on the discounting.

Why would Q3's S/X ASP be less than Q2s? There were a lot of pre-Raven discounting in Q2.

 

[luvb2b]

it's not shown but i assume ~10% for s/x and ~7% leased for model 3.

i just run solar revenue off some multiple of mw's installed and my methods are crude. the most important thing is with a variety of assumptions for the solar/storage split, i reach the conclusion that storage must have turned positive gm in 19q2.

correct on deferred revenue, in fact on the call they cited deferred revenue recognition as a profit driver. releasing features that triggers deferred revenue recognition boosts current quarter one-time and future quarters on an ongoing basis (because you no longer have to defer revenue collected for some features that weren't delivered). it provides a current and future tailwind to gross margin.

You assume 10% lease ratio for S/X and Model 3?

I split solar and energy storage differently (solar higher), but come out with a similar total amount.

A big slug of deferred EAP/FSD revenue recognition plus another emissions credit surprise could produce a GAAP profit. Since it seems Q4 will have GF3 startup costs they may decide to pull a bunch of cookies out of the jar in Q3.

 

[EVNow]

correct on deferred revenue, in fact on the call they cited deferred revenue recognition as a profit driver. releasing features that triggers deferred revenue recognition boosts current quarter one-time and future quarters on an ongoing basis (because you no longer have to defer revenue collected for some features that weren't delivered). it provides a current and future tailwind to gross margin.

Anyway to estimate the deferred revenue from past purchases they can recognize for releasing Enh Summon in Q3 with V10 ? Assuming, by the end of Monday, they can roll out V10 to everyone with FSD/EAP in US.

 

[generalenthu]

So we are looking at ~$350MM in cash from ops?

 

[EVNow]

@EVNow, did you happen to get in touch with Tesla IR?

Thanks for the reminder. I did - but haven't got a reply yet.

If you go to investor page on tesla.com - you can send a "comment" to investor relationship. It would be great if more people ask this question - our chances of a reply get better.

 

[EVNow]

So we are looking at ~$350MM in cash from ops?

How did you conclude that ?

My estimate is about $1B in Net cash used in operating activities. We'll have a better sense after p&d is released. Inventory changes make a big difference.

 

[luvb2b]

best guess: past one time autopilot i think was around 35m for a major feature.
there are now many more vehicles but perhaps smart summon is a lesser feature.
i'd expect $35-75m just from that crude work.

Anyway to estimate the deferred revenue from past purchases they can recognize for releasing Enh Summon in Q3 with V10 ? Assuming, by the end of Monday, they can roll out V10 to everyone with FSD/EAP in US.

 

[luvb2b]

i think it's potentially quite a bit more than that. days payables outstanding were very low at the end of last quarter. inventory likely goes up slightly, leased vehicles go up slightly, and deferred revenue creates more non-cash earnings than accruals. however higher units plus modestly better margins in auto sales and service help a lot.

cash is harder to forecast due to so many moving parts in working capital, but force me to guess cash from ops and i offer: +600m. free cash flow guess: +300m

So we are looking at ~$350MM in cash from ops?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Model 3 product mix in Norway, Spain and the Netherlands as of today. (Apologies for the Hungarian Excel labels... you get the idea)

 

[Fact Checking]

cash is harder to forecast due to so many moving parts in working capital, but force me to guess cash from ops and i offer: +600m. free cash flow guess: +300m

There's probably going to be an uptick in capex due to GF3 expansion a lot of equipment being installed there, which would reduce FCF even if much of the cost of the equipment is paid over several quarters.

 

[Reinhard]

updated model for ~99k total deliveries based on today's email. the 110k order rate number is fantastic and just as important as the delivery count. there were headwinds this quarter from a us tax credit dropoff and likely some waiting for local manufacturing and lower prices in china. if they grew units into those 2 headwinds, that's fantastic.

please note my s/x asp estimate is based on "everything except model 3" divided by s/x units. it will be biased higher due to deferred revenue recognition, accessory sales, etc. basically anything not captured in model 3 revenue goes in there and so i cannot match it exactly to what they are selling.

…

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

avg price s+x (calc'd)

avg price model 3 (set)

non-zev credits per delivery

zev credits

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

zev+nonzev credits

1 time revenue

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto ex 3 ex credits gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

model 3 gm ex credits

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]9,500[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]9,500[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 19,000 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 80,000 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 87,000 [/TD2][TD2] 72,531 [/TD2][TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2] [TD2] 93.00 [/TD2][TD2] 97.21 [/TD2][TD2] 113.65 [/TD2][TD2] 108.65 [/TD2] [TD2] 49.00 [/TD2][TD2] 50.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.30 [/TD2] [TD2] 1.20 [/TD2][TD2] 1.17 [/TD2][TD2] 3.18 [/TD2][TD2] 1.04 [/TD2] [TD2]10,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,412[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2] [TD2]1,585,534[/TD2][TD2]1,545,857[/TD2][TD2]1,219,184[/TD2][TD2]2,604,255[/TD2] [TD2]3,541,519[/TD2][TD2]3,575,051[/TD2][TD2]2,574,076[/TD2][TD2]3,374,248[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]128,800[/TD2][TD2]111,219[/TD2][TD2]215,981[/TD2][TD2]94,968[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-64,100[/TD2][TD2]-500,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 5,466,946 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]265,000[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]103,208[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]605,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,480,154 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]1,300,138[/TD2][TD2]1,264,570[/TD2][TD2]1,051,304[/TD2][TD2]1,908,505[/TD2] [TD2]2,974,876[/TD2][TD2]3,038,793[/TD2][TD2]2,213,705[/TD2][TD2]2,750,012[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-49,600[/TD2][TD2]-408,800[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,384,782 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]235,850[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]84,631[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]735,300[/TD2][TD2]732,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,451,563 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,028,591 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2][TD2]13.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.7%[/TD2] [TD2]19.8%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]26.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.6%[/TD2][TD2]33.9%[/TD2][TD2]31.0%[/TD2] [TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-14.0%[/TD2][TD2]-21.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] 32,432 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -149,185 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -169,185 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -189,185 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.06 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-189,185[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]20,678[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] 0.12 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

77,634 M3s@50K with 17,722 S/X@$97K = $5.6B. You list total auto at $5.3B. The numbers don't add up? Q2 S/X ASP appears to closer to $80K?