I tend to agree with you - unless there are major CapEx expansion plans announced, it is likely Tesla has all the cash they need.
Why ? If the dilution is ~ 0.5% for a 5B cap raise, how is that more expensive than a junk bond ?
Because if it goes 5x the equivalent rate is 2.5%. That excluded dividends too.
You mean if the SP goes 5x ? Why would that then be 2.5% ? It would still be 5%.
I'm using very napkin math, but yes - the more the growth in the stock price plus dividend payments, the more the cost of an equity raise. In the example above 0.5% * 5x = 2.5% cost.
Not sure why you are multiplying 0.5% by 5.
You really think that they won't be able to sell the cars if they can build them? With the current backlog? There are many for whom the tax credit is of no use. There are many who will jump at the chance to get the car now, regardless.
Really? Did you catch that one of the details is that they are making it refundable? So even if you owe $0 tax for the year, you still get the full credit under the current proposal...
May be referring to $800k income cut off.
Ya I was reading that twitter exchange.
like a _stock_ dividend to owners of record?
| Q3 2021 ASP (Almost all 3/Y) | $50,000 | ||
| Q3 2021 Gross Margin (Almost all 3/Y) | 30.50% | ||
| Bear | Base | Bull | |
| Price increases, known as of Q4 2021 | $ 2,000 | $ 2,000 | $ 2,000 |
| Price increases from even more demand (Hertz rentals, TSLA stock attention, Tom Brady ads all NFL season, rising oil prices, Cybertruck initial sales blowing people's minds, etc) | $ 1,000 | $ 2,500 | $ 3,300 |
| US Tax Credit | $ 1,500 | $ 2,500 | $ 3,500 |
| Mix (more model Y, more Shanghai, Euro pent up demand high end sales) | $ 1,000 | $ 2,000 | $ 3,000 |
| FSD Revenue Increase | $ - | $ 500 | $ 1,500 |
| Total ASP Increase | $ 5,500 | $ 9,500 | $ 13,300 |
| Shipping + Tariff Savings | $ (1,133) | $ (1,300) | $ (1,533) |
| More use of Giga castings in overall production mix (fully accounted savings including direct costs estimated by Jordan Giesege, plus overall cost of poor quality improvements, easier downstream assembly, less batteries needed bc of lower weight) | $ (400) | $ (1,000) | $ (2,000) |
| New Berlin & Shanghai Paint shop | $ (27) | $ (67) | $ (114) |
| Miscellaneous innovation | $ (300) | $ (500) | $ (1,000) |
| Total CoGS savings | $ (1,860) | $ (2,867) | $ (4,648) |
| Q4 2022 ASP | $ 55,500 | $ 59,500 | $ 63,300 |
| Q4 2022 CoGS Avg | $ 36,500 | $ 35,400 | $ 33,700 |
| Q4 2022 Gross Margin | $ 19,000 | $ 24,100 | $ 29,600 |
| 52% | 68% | 88% | |
| Q4 2022 Annualized KPIs | |||
| 3/Y Production, annualized, kilocars | 1500 | 1800 | 2100 |
| S/X Gross Profit, gigadollars | $3.5 | $4.8 | $6.0 |
| Opex, gigadollars | $ 8.5 | $ 7.8 | $ 7.1 |
| Operating profit, gigadollars | $ 32 | $ 43 | $ 62 |
| Operating Income, gigadollars | $ 24 | $ 36 | $ 55 |
| Probability | 30% | 60% | 10% |
| Price/Op Inc Multiplier | 60 | 90 | 120 |
| Share Price | $1,300 | $2,900 | $5,900 |
| Expected Value | $ 2,720 | ||
| Today's Price | $ 1,222 | ||
| ROI | 2.2 |
Does Tesla stick to the original price when it's time to finalize the order? If not, then that portion of the projected increases may take not really fully come into play until Q1 2023. But on the other hand, most delivery dates are estimated for June at the latest it seems, at least in Seattle. More expensive configurations are delivering in Dec or Jan.
It might be because I'm in Seattle. I tried with all options and couldn't make the delivery estimate go past June. I bet they're delaying East Coast deliveries in anticipation of Giga Austin delivering instead of Fremont.
UK: Mine was lowest of order price & current price (lower), so it was cheaper than when ordered. If that applies now, to your region (and I can't know), reservation is a good idea, even if not 100% sure as you only lose a little on cancellation, might get it cheaper or might be worth more than your final (order) price o delivery. Pretty sure delivery date will be later than Tesla say.
