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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Anyone know if this is from Shanghai or Berlin? CATL cars from Shanghai would be my guess, but they said Berlin will soon start building structural packs. That might mean Berlin SRs using BYD Blade packs, which would be really interesting.Had a mail from Tesla this morning saying the Model Y SR now available to order in the UK. Seems like they are expecting deliveries this quarter. At £6k less expensive than the LR AWD I would expect it to be very popular.
Nice Christmas presents for someone
I assume these are from Shanghai as UK is RHD and all other UK model 3 and Y come from Shanghai. The colour choice is also the Shanghai colour range - unfortunately no Midnight Cherry Red
petit_bateau
Active Member
Attachments
Tesla did have its best first month of a quarter in Europe (I believe). Still, with Berlin hitting 2k/week at the start of the month (and presumably ramping), why weren't sales closer to 7.5-8k? And that's without mentioning the 22k "in transit" vehicles at 9/30.
Giga Shanghai did 71.7k, though we don't yet have the exact domestic/export split - I'm seeing a lot of estimates around 20-21k domestically there. Tesla sold 19,346 in China in January '22 (first month of a Q), and it's not great to compare to April or July due to shutdowns and line upgrades (imo) that impacted those months.
1) remains to be seen if Tesla is "smoothing out" deliveries in the quarter - at first glance, it doesn't look like a huge change (based on Europe/China sales, at least)
2) Giga Berlin should have produced 8-10k (or more) vehicles in October. Obviously there's a bit of a lag time to delivery, but 5.6k seems low, no?
3) It's safe to assume (I think?) that the 22k "in transit" vehicles at 9/30 would be delivered by now. So where did those excess sales go? If/until we got monthly sales data from U.S., Canada, ROW, it's hard to say, but to my untrained eye China + Europe didn't have a significant bump in sales for the first month of a quarter, other than Giga Berlin getting out a couple thousand more vehicles.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
I think so, too. Previous best I see was April '19 at 4400+. Mostly the first Euro-wave of Model 3s that got stuck at the docks in March.
I don't extrapolate peak numbers. These are often all-out sprints to stress test the system. They then dial back or even stop altogether to work on fixing the weak links.
The first ship with "End of Q3" cars (Glovis Supreme) left Shanghai on 10/2 and unloaded in Barcelona from 10/25-27. I doubt any of those cars were delivered in October. That was the only EOQ ship to reach European port in October. The Hoegh Traveller, which I think was supposed to be a Q3 ship that slipped, did unload in Zeebrugge from Oct 12-14. Most of those cars probably made it to customer garages during the month.
Data is from Franco Mossotto's handy spreadsheet. He doesn't track every partial APAC load. Also note: I think China counts exports when paperwork is filed. So those cars Wu Wa filmed sitting at the dock at EOQ were counted as September exports even though they didn't set sail until early October.
Besides the EOQ ships, it seems Tesla didn't drain the domestic pipeline in China like they usually do at EOQ. Maybe due to savvy Chinese buyers getting wind of the price cut rumor. We'll learn more from October production data in a few weeks.
The Accountant
Active Member
Please consider:
- About 3,500 cars were on the Azul Ace carrier from Berlin to Taiwan in October.
- The first ship from Shanghai the Hoegh Traveller finished unloading at Zeebrugge on Oct 14 and it takes a few weeks to get these to customers throughout europe. The 2nd ship Glovis Supreme finished unloading on Oct 27. So we will see much of the Shanghai exports in Nov/Dec.
Not sure why you’re even responding to that account. The care bear worries he listed are so easily disproven that it makes it crystal clear of what his agenda is.
petit_bateau
Active Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
What kind of polynomial curve fit has 90% of data below the curve ?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
What kind of polynomial curve fit has 90% of data below the curve ?
One in which all you care about is the highest value.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
When all that matters is the highest number seen up to a given date.What kind of polynomial curve fit has 90% of data below the curve ?
Most of us still are informing TE. In 3rd quarter Tesla suddenly, for the first time, had gigantic Energy sales, most of which seem to have been attributable to GigaPacks:
IN 3rd quarter Tesla delivered 2,100 MWh of storage, up from 1,295 MWh the previous year. The changes during 2022 have clearly been realized as the Lathrop factory is beginning the ramp towards the 40GWh currently disclosed:
insideevs.com
We can presume the majority of revenue is from Gigapacks and, based on a recent large quote, about $420 KWh or ~$6000 per pack for larger orders. Tesla reported $1,013 million in Energy Generation and Storage in 3rd quarter.
In all probability, as in energy generation revenue, the nature of large scale energy projects is to use project financing with payouts linked to actual production. The 4th quarter growth should prove whether the earnings have become material or not.
If these assumptions are correct Tesla is on the verge of material investments in energy production, partly explaining all the licenses Tesla has been acquiring. That is, VPP's are just the tip of the iceberg. Beginning either this quarter or next year substantial income flows will be realized.
There will be four primary components:
1. Ongoing payments from large utility-level storage sales;
2. Growing revenues from utility maintenance and Supercharging (e.g. widespread Megapacks and solar power for Superchargers);
3. Direct sales of Megapacks, Powerpacks and solar;
4. Grid services, including Autobidder, VPP's and energy retailing.
Each of these has been disclosed. Each has been expected to become material. None have thus far been material.
So, why now? Lathrop, Buffalo, plus very large new supplies of iron-based chemistries making, for the first time, enough supply to expand all these businesses.
This all is not yet quantifiable but it certainly will be, in part with 4Q.
(I hope this is not out of place here. The idea is to foment more serious analysis of these issues now so they will not be total surprises.
IN 3rd quarter Tesla delivered 2,100 MWh of storage, up from 1,295 MWh the previous year. The changes during 2022 have clearly been realized as the Lathrop factory is beginning the ramp towards the 40GWh currently disclosed:
Tesla Presents Its New Megapack Factory In Lathrop, California
Tesla's all-new battery energy storage system (BESS) factory in Lathrop, California is almost ready and is ramping up production. Let's take a look.
insideevs.com
We can presume the majority of revenue is from Gigapacks and, based on a recent large quote, about $420 KWh or ~$6000 per pack for larger orders. Tesla reported $1,013 million in Energy Generation and Storage in 3rd quarter.
In all probability, as in energy generation revenue, the nature of large scale energy projects is to use project financing with payouts linked to actual production. The 4th quarter growth should prove whether the earnings have become material or not.
If these assumptions are correct Tesla is on the verge of material investments in energy production, partly explaining all the licenses Tesla has been acquiring. That is, VPP's are just the tip of the iceberg. Beginning either this quarter or next year substantial income flows will be realized.
There will be four primary components:
1. Ongoing payments from large utility-level storage sales;
2. Growing revenues from utility maintenance and Supercharging (e.g. widespread Megapacks and solar power for Superchargers);
3. Direct sales of Megapacks, Powerpacks and solar;
4. Grid services, including Autobidder, VPP's and energy retailing.
Each of these has been disclosed. Each has been expected to become material. None have thus far been material.
So, why now? Lathrop, Buffalo, plus very large new supplies of iron-based chemistries making, for the first time, enough supply to expand all these businesses.
This all is not yet quantifiable but it certainly will be, in part with 4Q.
(I hope this is not out of place here. The idea is to foment more serious analysis of these issues now so they will not be total surprises.
Last edited:
Todesbuckler
Member
Most of us still are informing TE. In 3rd quarter Tesla suddenly, for the first time, had gigantic Energy sales, most of which seem to have been attributable to GigaPacks:
IN 3rd quarter Tesla delivered 2,100 MWh of storage, up from 1,295 MWh the previous year. The changes during 2022 have clearly been realized as the Lathrop factory is beginning the ramp towards the 40GWh currently disclosed:
Tesla Presents Its New Megapack Factory In Lathrop, California
Tesla's all-new battery energy storage system (BESS) factory in Lathrop, California is almost ready and is ramping up production. Let's take a look.
We can presume the majority of revenue is from Gigapacks and, based on a recent large quote, about $420 KWh or ~$6000 per pack for larger orders. That would yield something in excess of $4 billion in revenue for the 3rd quarter. Tesla reported $1,013 million in Energy Generation and Storage in 3rd quarter.
Why the huge discrepancy? In all probability, as in energy generation revenue, the nature of large scale energy projects is to use project financing with payouts linked to actual production.
If these assumptions are correct Tesla is on the verge of material investments in energy production, partly explaining all the licenses Tesla has been acquiring. That is, VPP's are just the tip of the iceberg. Beginning either this quarter or next year substantial income flows will be realized.
There will be four primary components:
1. Ongoing payments from large utility-level storage sales;
2. Growing revenues from utility maintenance and Supercharging (e.g. widespread Megapacks and solar power for Superchargers);
3. Direct sales of Megapacks, Powerpacks and solar;
4. Grid services, including Autobidder, VPP's and energy retailing.
Each of these has been disclosed. Each has been expected to become material. None have thus far been material.
So, why now? Lathrop, Buffalo, plus very large new supplies of iron-based chemistries making, for the first time, enough supply to expand all these businesses.
This all is not yet quantifiable but it certainly will be, in part with 4Q.
(I hope this is not out of place here. The idea is to foment more serious analysis of these issues now so they will not be total surprises.
Thanks for pointing this out. I agree that there are additional revenue streams after the initial hardware sale. Personally, I am quite excited about VPP and autobidder from an earnings perspective.
However, $ 4 billion seems a bit high to me. Just as an example, I increased the number of Megapacks to 2,100 MWh of storage on Tesla's website.
This results in ~ $1 billion in revenue (caveat: the amount is for delivery in 2024 and today's prices are likely higher).
As there are also revenue streams from solar and a higher revenue per kWh from Powerwalls, your argument is still valid. Nevertheless, $4 billion seems too much in my view.
Last edited:
Your calculations are correct. I transposed my estimation for 2023 with the 3rd quarter number. The quotation to which I refer would exceed Q3 levels, and is for 2023 deliveries. Income recognition is expected to be on project finance percent completion plus actual performance payments. I regret my obvious error.
petit_bateau
Active Member
If it helps these were my previous best estimates of the likely achieved average ex-works Tesla unit revenues for the various storage products. I don't think Tesla is in practice achieving list price as the reseller/intermediaries will be taking some margin, plus some end-user clients are likely to be getting better pricing than others. Nonetheless this is an area where I think Tesla is being out-competed to an extent by a wide variety of other offerings. As an example SolarEdge are charging GBP 6,000 (USD 7,000) to the end-client for a 10kWh domestic storage inc the relevant inverter which is attractively priced vs the (unobtainable) corresponding Tesla Powerwall product. We are in the process of buying from SolarEdge as a result. This is for LFP.
In context I assume essentially nothing in consumer product sales. There will be some but numerous other competitors are doing better depending on the market. BYD dominates in much of the world, SolarEdge seems to be ahead in the US and there are many others. Were Tesla suddenly to have supply that might change, but in most of the world there are better competitors.
In utility level competition there are also numerous competitors but the Tesla MegaPack does have significant implementation advantages plus the Autobidder etc. There is clearly competition there also but Tesla is, at the moment, the only real turnkey solution.
Listing the options, market by market, suggests the competition is nearly atomistic. That, though, ignores the reality that everyone has scaling problems, thus the entire industry is supply constrained.
As always our primary question is how quickly Tesla can scale?
petit_bateau
Active Member
petit_bateau
Active Member
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Most of us still are informing TE. In 3rd quarter Tesla suddenly, for the first time, had gigantic Energy sales, most of which seem to have been attributable to GigaPacks:
IN 3rd quarter Tesla delivered 2,100 MWh of storage, up from 1,295 MWh the previous year. The changes during 2022 have clearly been realized as the Lathrop factory is beginning the ramp towards the 40GWh currently disclosed:
Tesla Presents Its New Megapack Factory In Lathrop, California
Tesla's all-new battery energy storage system (BESS) factory in Lathrop, California is almost ready and is ramping up production. Let's take a look.
We can presume the majority of revenue is from Gigapacks and, based on a recent large quote, about $420 KWh or ~$6000 per pack for larger orders. Tesla reported $1,013 million in Energy Generation and Storage in 3rd quarter.
In all probability, as in energy generation revenue, the nature of large scale energy projects is to use project financing with payouts linked to actual production. The 4th quarter growth should prove whether the earnings have become material or not.
If these assumptions are correct Tesla is on the verge of material investments in energy production, partly explaining all the licenses Tesla has been acquiring. That is, VPP's are just the tip of the iceberg. Beginning either this quarter or next year substantial income flows will be realized.
There will be four primary components:
1. Ongoing payments from large utility-level storage sales;
2. Growing revenues from utility maintenance and Supercharging (e.g. widespread Megapacks and solar power for Superchargers);
3. Direct sales of Megapacks, Powerpacks and solar;
4. Grid services, including Autobidder, VPP's and energy retailing.
Each of these has been disclosed. Each has been expected to become material. None have thus far been material.
So, why now? Lathrop, Buffalo, plus very large new supplies of iron-based chemistries making, for the first time, enough supply to expand all these businesses.
This all is not yet quantifiable but it certainly will be, in part with 4Q.
(I hope this is not out of place here. The idea is to foment more serious analysis of these issues now so they will not be total surprises.
Someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I believe there is a hidden 5th component of income flow:
5) battery production tax credits.
It is my understanding that these are realized not just on batteries put in to autos, but also to battery storage deployed.
Someone confirm if I am correct on this, please.
