you can't, i tried...there is nothing binding that will be given to you about a chip swap or even a definition that FSD Computer means HW3.0
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New Cars DO NOT have AP3 (Hardware3!)
- Thread starter rkg114
- Start date
you can't, i tried...there is nothing binding that will be given to you about a chip swap or even a definition that FSD Computer means HW3.0
Tam
Well-Known Member
I think with any extra parts in the inventory, the assembly line has the priority which explains why it takes longer for body shops and Service Centers.
It's sad that those who already paid would not get prioritized but that's how Tesla can get new money.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
By model year, yes- not literally by the date they bought the car.
And they only did that because the airbag was more likely to fail as the car aged, so older cars were at greater risk, and there simply weren't enough parts TO fix them all at once.
None of that is the case here though- given how chips are made, Tesla should have an abundance of FSD computers- what they lack is the manpower to swap them all out at the same time.
So using a system where the first say 1000 all go to a few service centers in CA where the very earliest FSD buyers live while the other 95% of SCs get none is the worst possible way to do it.... (which, again, does NOT rule out Tesla doing it that way, being Tesla and all....)
You mean in addition to how it's in writing on the actual FSD order page at Tesla.com, or in writing from the CEO numerous times? Or on actual recorded audio from numerous execs including said CEO?
I'm unclear how "Bob at the tesla store gave me a note!" would be valuable compared to all of those.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
This is again incorrect.
Elon Musk on Twitter
CEO of Tesla said:
There was a whole presentation concerning the new FSD computer at Autonomy day, that went on for like an hour, on video, too.
It's too bad MP3Mike didn't indicate what he disagreed with on the OP's post. MP3Mike tends to be a facts based person so it's usually something factual, but I don't see anything factually wrong about the OP's post.
Tesla is either still building some Model 3's with HW2.5 or they're not.
My guess is Tesla either still had inventory of HW2.5's that they wanted to use up, or they ran into some production hic-up with HW3.
As I understand it the Model 3 is selling like Hotcakes, and I imagine even Tesla themselves was taken by surprise by demand up-tick. So I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if was a result of demand, and shortages of HW3.
Tesla is either still building some Model 3's with HW2.5 or they're not.
My guess is Tesla either still had inventory of HW2.5's that they wanted to use up, or they ran into some production hic-up with HW3.
As I understand it the Model 3 is selling like Hotcakes, and I imagine even Tesla themselves was taken by surprise by demand up-tick. So I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if was a result of demand, and shortages of HW3.
GOOD TO KNOW..thank you for that, it seems to be something that can be held in the court of law.
However he does hedge and say when the car can take advantage of the capabilities of HW3....he could just say it never does.........? doomsday scenario of course.
I couldn't get EAP separate like others, so FSD was a necessary purchase regardless if I wanted EAP
It looks like almost all (if not ALL) model 3 cars built after May 15 have HW 2.5. I already refused delivery two times in the last few weeks (and each time they assigned a new VIN). I ordered FSD from the beginning... Yesterday morning they assigned a new VIN, and then the delivery specialist confirmed that it's again HW 2.5 (car built on June 1). So tomorrow I will get this car (unless it has some serious paint or glass defects) because I don't think Tesla is going to install HW 3 in any new cars in the immediate future... Also, interesting to see how irrelevant the VINs are for the build date: the previous VIN was 400xxx, build date 5/20. This one has 317xxx, build date 6/1.
mcorf
Member
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
HEVC 265 is what HW3 has been confirmed as using, and 2.5 has not been using.
I suppose it's possible they'll switch 2.5 over if the HW is capable, but I'm unaware of anyone reporting this has happened, while HW3 folks have confirmed HEVC 265 from the start....so seems the easiest way to check right now.
I suppose it's possible they'll switch 2.5 over if the HW is capable, but I'm unaware of anyone reporting this has happened, while HW3 folks have confirmed HEVC 265 from the start....so seems the easiest way to check right now.
Record some video on the dash cam and then use your computer or an app which shows you the codec information. If it is HEVC 265 (H.265), it should be AP3 hardware.
Well, the first FSD buyers were Model S and X cars, so I don’t know why they wouldn’t be smattered throughout the country. Tesla could start with all 2016 models first, then first 1/2 or quarter 2017 models depending on how small of chunks they need to keep them in. It makes sense to segregate us somehow so we don’t all rush our SCs like the mad people we are. Not literally by order date, of course, but in reasonable chunks. I have heard the install might be easier on the S and X so maybe they will segregate by model as well.
I don’t know how else it is best to do it, other than random hat draw I suppose. Tesla sends out the first batch to SCs and just contacts owners randomly or just does us as we pass through a service center for other items. Of course if that is the case, we will all NEED service right now!!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
AFAIK S/X is a 30 minutes swap easily done by mobile rangers... so it'd make sense for them to do those, and let the SCs handle 3s that are more complex and apparently involve coolant lines... (and IIRC there's more mobile rangers than service centers anyway)
there's about 65k total Model S sales with AP2+ in the US.
Model X is about 55k.
So 120k total in the US (rough ballpark). Nobody officially knows FSD take rate... but the TMC take rate on the 3 was 15%, if it's the same on S/X you're talking 18k total cars... and a bit north of 400 ranger vehicles, so only 45 installs per Ranger and they're done.
Let's say at 30 minutes a pop, with travel time and the occasional other job, they can only do 3 30-minute FSD swaps a day.
They're entirely done with the S/X fleet in just over 2 weeks. With just rangers.
So breaking it down by FSD order date seems largely a waste of time with those numbers.
The 3 on the other hand is already probably 20% north of that in the US, and takes longer...let's say 150k cars total, so 22.5k with a 15% take rate.... but there's only about 95 service centers in the US per tesla.com
That's 237 installs per service center.... though they can usually handle at least 2-3 cars a time compared to a ranger...
And let's say it's a 2 hour job instead of 30 minutes.
They can do more than 1 car at a time though...but also have all the "needs a lift to get it running" work for the entire fleet...but let's say they can do 5 a day total which is probably low.... that's about 8 weeks to do the entire fleet (with SCs open 6 days a week)...and honestly after the 2-3 weeks of the rangers finishing up on the S/X they can probably chip in here too to make it even faster.... even if they can do 1 a day for the last 5 weeks that knocks a decent bit of time off.
Obviously there's some guesswork in most of those steps...I think I've been on the conservative side honestly but I don't expect any are off by MASSIVE amounts, to the point where people would be waiting 6-12 months or more to get the upgrade....again barring some display of utter logistical incompetence by Tesla which is always a real possibility.
Now of course once FSD is "real" it's possible a ton more of the fleet will suddenly buy it... and I'd certainly expect THOSE folks to be told to wait on swaps until everyone who bought before the "flip the switch to make HW3 useful" date in their area gets theirs.
I think you need to take into account the fact that Tesla won’t be able to dedicate all the ranger and SC resources to this project. And in many areas, the system is overtaxed already. So it will be a much smaller % of the available ranger fleet able to do hardware swaps at any given time vs the stuff they already have to do for example.
Take a look at this post from another thread on this topic from someone who just picked up a HW2.5 car built in May.
You can see in the picture of the AP computer (behind the glove box) that the build date on the 2.5 computer is Nov, 2018... months older than the HW3 build dates (earliest I've seen is Feb, 2019).
This supports the theory that they're using up old 2.5 inventory on the lower priced (SR+) cars.
If any of you with May build dates want the 100% fool proof way to check your own car, this video shows you how to look at the computer its self (it's not hard... no tools required):
If your part number on the sticker has "1462554" in it, you have the HW3 FSD Computer.
If your part number on the sticker has "1098058" in it, you have the HW2.5 AP Computer.
HW3 FSD Computer Looks Like This:
HW2.5 AP Computer Loos Like This:
Even without the part number, note the extra meta clips next to the pink plug and position of the computer's build date. Those are different between the 2 versions.
You can see in the picture of the AP computer (behind the glove box) that the build date on the 2.5 computer is Nov, 2018... months older than the HW3 build dates (earliest I've seen is Feb, 2019).
This supports the theory that they're using up old 2.5 inventory on the lower priced (SR+) cars.
If any of you with May build dates want the 100% fool proof way to check your own car, this video shows you how to look at the computer its self (it's not hard... no tools required):
If your part number on the sticker has "1462554" in it, you have the HW3 FSD Computer.
If your part number on the sticker has "1098058" in it, you have the HW2.5 AP Computer.
HW3 FSD Computer Looks Like This:
HW2.5 AP Computer Loos Like This:
Even without the part number, note the extra meta clips next to the pink plug and position of the computer's build date. Those are different between the 2 versions.
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What trim did you order? There's this theory that only SR(+) is getting the 2.5 hardware now, and I don't think anyone has definitively stated they have 2.5 built after April 12 with a LR model. But most people who post about it don't actually mention what trim they have, so it's hard to know for sure.
If you custom order a new car at full price, you expect to be the only person who has driven it (other than moving it from factory to truck, etc). Clearly this was not the case. It's obviously a returned car or loaner, even MORE reason to have a discount applied for the mileage. I'm a little gobsmacked you can't understand why that's a big deal to some people.
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