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New Motors - 1 million mile life. Model 3 the last car you buy?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Garlan Garner, Jul 4, 2017.

  1. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

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  2. Derek Kessler

    Derek Kessler Member

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    There are many other parts to the car than the motors to wear out. Technically, if you take care of any car with proactive maintenance and don't wreck it, you'll be able to drive it forever too. Getting a car to a million miles takes several decades — at that point self driving, battery, charging, and all other tech will have long-obsoleted a Model 3.

    Will it still work? Sure. The million-mile Benzes and BMWs still work, and their owners love to drive them, but they're novelties at best. Designing a motor to last 1,000,000 miles is more insurance that it should last 200,000+ miles in the useful and desirable life of a car.
     
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  3. powertoold

    powertoold Member

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    M3/MY may be the last generation of mostly consumer owned cars. Once there is level 5 FSD, it doesn't make sense to own cars.

    I don't think level 5 FSD is coming out for another 5 years though, despite what Elon says.
     
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  4. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

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    How about making a Model S powertrain that can do 50'000 miles before needing replacement, and THEN let's talk about a million mile goal.
     
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  5. jsrawa

    jsrawa Member

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    I'd tend to agree, once level 5 hits the entire automotive landscape will shift. It will be car sharing in the future, maybe the manufacturers themselves will be the only ones to own vehicles besides enthusiasts.
     
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  6. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    If we get these motor improvements I'm sure it will be recycled with the drivetrain just like new. I've been guilty of holding onto vehicles past 300,000km. And even in that relatively short time, the new features and enhanced safety etc we take for granted by that time mean the upgrade is compelling.

    Aside from that I've found it's minor things like door handles falling off, electric window motors slowing, seat stuffing compressing so seats aren't comfy anymore, seatbelt pretensioners being over or under active and strange rattles in the trim that you can't trace that cause us to cube them. I can't imagine the hell of suffering something that's done 1,600,000km.
     
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  7. eye.surgeon

    eye.surgeon Member

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    I'll never not own my own car. Personally I think this idea that ride sharing will displace private car ownership is a segway-esque fantasy. Whos first thought here after experiencing autopilot was, this is so cool! I only wish I could rent it by the hour.
     
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  8. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

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    I think it might happen, but with the younger generations. My coworker has twin 16 year olds who aren't that interested in driving and didn't even want to take their drivers license test (one failed her first attempt). Another has kids in their late 20s who could care less about buying a car.

    It's weird to me, but these kids use Uber, etc to get everywhere. So the old car = independance is no longer true.
     
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  9. David L

    David L Member

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    While Musk has been quoted as saying that Tesla aims to make a drive train that lasts for a million miles, Electrek made a random association to that quote when writing this headline. It's also plausible that Tesla improved the performance while keeping the longevity the same. I just wanted to point this out to anyone who reads the headline and thinks that Tesla specifically stated that the new motor is also longer lasting, when they've actually provided no details.
     
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  10. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    Agreed. My 17yo has suggested he buy the autonomous driving upgrade for the M3 rather than getting his licence and car. It's completely different to racing down to get our learners permit on our birthday like we did!
     
  11. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

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    The drive train includes the motor in a Tesla.

    Tesla’s drive units are built using a patented assembly process that includes having an electric motor, a power inverter assembly and a gearbox into a single, multi-piece enclosure.

    After updating the performance specs this weekend, Tesla changed the parts number of its main rear-wheel-drive motor. Except no change has been made in either S or X 100D's
     
  12. BrettS

    BrettS Member

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    I don’t think that this is true as a blanket statement. Right now there are some people who don’t own cars because it doesn’t make sense for them. They don’t drive much because they live in a city or whatever and on the rare occasion when they need a car they can use Uber or rent a car and pay less overall than they would pay to own a car. But there are a lot of people for whom it makes more financial sense to own a car because of how frequently they drive.

    And I believe the same will be true when automous cars exist. It may be cheaper to order an automous car like a taxi to take a trip to the store and then order another one for the ride home, but there will still be people who spend a lot of time driving and will probably find it cheaper to own their own car than to rely on publicly available autonomous cars.

    Autonomous cars will likely change the number of people who own their own car from what we see today, but I think there will always be some people that will be better off owning their own car.
     
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  13. cwerdna

    cwerdna Active Member

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    Exactly!

    As the "article" points to, Musk has been talking about the goal of a power train that will last a million miles since 2015. See Three Dog Day | Tesla Motors (from July 2015).

    Unfortunately, other folks have (and it seems like Electrek this time, for some bizarre reason) have chosen to infer that means something else. I posted some replies at Official Tesla Model S thread - Page 348 - My Nissan Leaf Forum on this, including some reactions from back then.
     
  14. tomas

    tomas Traded in 9 rep bars for M3, used to be somebody!

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    There will be fewer cars due to sharing but personal ownership will still be common. I live in a remote area. Cannot see car sharing working there. Plus, some people may be like me... don't want anybody else filthing up my car.
     
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  15. zenmaster

    zenmaster Member

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    However, they can simply narrow the definition of "FSD". Remember, level 5 as stated doesn't include parking nor does it include strategic decision making. If they say that FSD means Level 5, then they are off the hook for providing the capability required for many everyday aspects of driving. "Level 5 autonomy", as defined, certainly wouldn't be the point where "it doesn't make sense to own cars".

    Actual full autonomy requires many problems to be solved: General AI (strategy, parking, scene interpretation), sensors (blind driveways, convex mirror geometry, long-distance vision), as well as an infrastructure problem (interaction with authorities, emergency workers, etc). We don't have anything close to that General AI and 5 years isn't enough time to fully address/accommodate its shortcomings.
     
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  16. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    Yep. My Tesla has had it's share of issues, and none of them have had anything to do with the drive train. A million mile drivetrain accomplishes nothing if the car is in the shop every few months to deal with a small handful of other issues.
     
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  17. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

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    What? What are you saying? Something else?

    Are you disagreeable because Elon said it was his goal?

    The Motor, etc IS part of the drive train. It used to be the weakest point in the chain concerning longevity. Tesla has a new motor which is supposedly not the weakest link anymore. Why are you disagreeing with that?
     
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  18. jsrawa

    jsrawa Member

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    Agreed, but I think that using the wording "FSD" with AP 2.0 is going to cause issues for them down the road. I believe they can achieve significant Autopilot abilities with this setup but it will have limitations.
     
  19. thelastdeadmouse

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    I expect to own my Model 3 for 10 to 15 years, until maintaining the car becomes more trouble than its worth and/or there's an attractive electric wagon who's range / charging / performance / self driving significantly eclipses that of the Model 3 and for a reasonable price.

    I live in very rural upstate NY, and I think that areas like this where the population density is less than 50 people per square mile, its going to be a long time after the introduction of level 5 before not owning a car makes sense. The distances you need to travel plus having enough vehicles available for periods of high demand means you'd need a very high concentration of vehicles available with full self driving to be reliable, in a region where the average age of a vehicle is easily 10 years or more.
     
  20. Matias

    Matias Active Member

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    Article is pure speculation. Headline even more. Nothing indicates, that Tesla now has one million mile drive unit.

    Tesla had once said that it tries to develope one million mile drive unit and it has now a new drive unit. These two things don't necessary have anything together.

    I'm disappointed with Electrek. This is not journalism.
     
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