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NHTSA Close to forcing recall of FSD after more crashes

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other manufacturers don't call their lane-keep assist L2 system "auto pilot" and heavily promote "FSD" to be ready just any moment now...
If tomorrow Tesla renamed their system (and released a firmware update renaming on the cars too):

Autopilot -> Tesla Driver Assist
FSD -> Tesla Advanced Driver Assist

Would everyone calm down?
 
If tomorrow Tesla renamed their system (and released a firmware update renaming on the cars too):

Autopilot -> Tesla Driver Assist
FSD -> Tesla Advanced Driver Assist

Would everyone calm down?
But naming it like that doesnt get suckers customers to plunk down $12k for the privilege of testing beta software on public highways, at the buyers risk.
 
the L2 part - not even certified as hands-free - is what gets me. So it's "FSD" but if you don't keep your hands on the wheel (at all times) and crash ... it's your fault. Meanwhile Mercedes is certified as L3 (although at quite low speeds) in Europe - but you can legally read a newspaper or watch a movie and the manufacturer takes on responsibly. BlueCruise and Super Cruise at least allow you to take the hands off the wheel and just look at the road.
L2 on divided highways I was pretty okay with, and even with the addition of user initiated auto lane changes.

But, L2 on city streets? To me that's a recipe for disaster once FSD Beta gets good enough to relax a bit. Things happen too quickly to recover from a few moments of inattention. A curbed rim will be the least of our concerns.

So I feel like L2 FSD Beta is a bridge to nowhere and is really intended to limit the scope of any FSD related lawsuits. Where they could say they "didn't know" the NHTSA would shut the whole thing down.

Now this isn't to say I don't find the whole FSD Beta thing incredibly exciting. It's not really dangerous yet, and the excitement is what it MIGHT do. Will 10.13 pull off Chucks uncontrolled left turn or will it fall on its face like every previous version. Plus its such an American thing to do. Here were going to give all these people the freedom where we're just going to try they won't do something incredibly stupid.

MB's achievement with L3 is interesting from a different perspective. It's not terribly useful due to the all the limitations, BUT it is autonomous when its engaged. It also has to give ample warning for the human to take over. So it's pretty awesome from a Robotics standpoint to have this machine work without being allowed to throw up red hands of death or a blue screen. To actually have redundancy and do what its supposed to do. It still has to deal with silly humans doing silly human things. Sure it happens less in Germany, but they're not immune to nutty drivers on the road. We really haven't seen it work as I don't believe its actually deployed yet. Will it meet expectations or will it be another tech promise that falls down in actual practice?
 
Rain impact on radar is high dependent on frequency, especially when it's above 20 GHz. Aircraft tracking radars typically are around 2.7 GHz and transponders operate at about 1 GHz. Auto radars are typically well above 20 GHz.

BTW weather radar frequencies are chosen so that they ARE affected by rain.

Yeah, I think the degree to which both modern automotive radar and automotive lidar are affected by rain/snow is completely exaggerated.

Vision can also be made to handle weather reasonably well. So purely from a perception standpoint I don't doubt that autonomous systems can match or exceed the best of humans in darkness, rain, sun, etc.

As to Tesla specifically:

I've had a Tesla vehicle with Radar since 2015 to early 2022 with ZERO issues TACC slowing down because rain.

I've had Pure Vision in my 2018 Model 3 since FSD Beta in early 2022 and it fairly consistently slows down in TACC due to rain. But, I've also seen improvements in it. So it really comes down to the feeling like Tesla released it prematurely. Where it might never have seen the light of day had they done any kind of verification testing on it to make sure it matched or exceed Radar+Vision in all cases.
 
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So I feel like L2 FSD Beta is a bridge to nowhere
Who knows what real "asleep at the wheel" FSD will need? AP4? Radar retrofit? More/highbut for rural roadser res/better positioned cams? All have been discussed and nobody really knows.

But if what we see in FSDB now but works 99.999% in the basic safety items (stops, starts - i.e. stop lights/signs) but only as well as FSD does today on Interstates But in roads from rural/city/interstate -- that would would have value. And with an attentive driver with better monitoring (not the nag), ready to handle road construction or other anomalies, for most it's a win/win. And still L2.
 
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Has Tesla ever said that L3 is even a goal? I don't believe I have ever heard such a statement.

I don’t see any way it jumps from the current L2 with hands on wheel at all times to L5 no driver in car. Just doesn’t make logical sense. They aren’t working on (or perhaps even thinking about) many aspects that are needed for the car to be L5. They barely have enough to be L3 assuming it all worked perfectly.
 
Has Tesla ever said that L3 is even a goal? I don't believe I have ever heard such a statement.
"Tesla CEO Elon Musk had a number of things to talk about during Wednesday's quarterly earnings call, but spent a lot of time discussing the company's Full Self-Driving system. According to Musk, the FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021."

“I’m extremely confident that
level 5 or essentially complete autonomy will happen and I think will happen very quickly,” Musk said in remarks made via a video message at the opening of Shanghai’s annual World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC)."


There are more quotes from him promising L5, if you need me to post them. Happy to.
 
I don’t see any way it jumps from the current L2 with hands on wheel at all times to L5 no driver in car. Just doesn’t make logical sense. They aren’t working on (or perhaps even thinking about) many aspects that are needed for the car to be L5. They barely have enough to be L3 assuming it all worked perfectly.
They have thought about it in the past, the proof is redundant autopilot computer processing, and redundant steering rack controllers. If they expected human oversight at all times those redundant components would be unnecessary.