No Model III until 2019?

[Model 3]

Of course, we don't have an actual target yet for the Model 3 delivery as the statement is still "3 years". This seems to be a moving target.

Two years ago it was "4 years".
One year ago it was "3 years".
This summer it was "2 and a half year".

Not so very moving.... Still target 2017. Latest news is that they expect the GF to start producing batteries in 2016. So the production will be stable by the time the firsts Model 3's gets delivered.

 

[JRP3]

That same argument was used for the Model X and we know what happened to that timeline.

Certainly not the argument that the X was an easier car to build, since it's actually more complex than the S.

as i said in another thread, it is not necessarily true that the 3 is 'easier to build' nor that it 'has no new tech' that would produce delays. in fact, it will be the first car to utilize the brand new batt coming out of the GF

A more energy dense lower cost cell poses no increased complexity in building a vehicle. In fact since fewer cells will be needed per kWh it should be less complex to build packs.

 

[bluenation]

A more energy dense lower cost cell poses no increased complexity in building a vehicle. In fact since fewer cells will be needed per kWh it should be less complex to build packs.

you dont know that. i dont know that. Manufacturing is never that simple.

also...it's a brand new batt model, coming from a brand new factory. not to mention, a brand new chassis.

to paraphrase Elon: manufacturing cars is harder than people think.

 

[Red Sage]

That same argument was used for the Model X and we know what happened to that timeline.

Yes. Instead of manufacturing perhaps 15,000 vehicles through all of 2013, including the Model X, Tesla Motors delivered around 22,000 vehicles that were all the Model S. Tesla Motors failed to realize how popular the Model S would be. They also failed to realize that people would purchase the 85 kWh version in droves, instead of the 40 kWh version. Result? They ran out of battery cells and had to beg Panasonic for them. So the Model X was postponed to 2nd Quarter 2014, then 3rd Quarter 2014, then 2nd Quarter 2015, before Panasonic finally relented, and cut a deal for more batteries.

Hopefully, Tesla Motors will not make the same mistake over the next two years. The Model X is destined to be ridiculously popular. It will probably be apparent that people order it at a 3:1 ratio compared to the Model S by the end of 2016. Hopefully there will not be a lack of either supplies, such as battery cells, or manufacturing capacity for the two Generation II vehicles during this time.

as i said in another thread, it is not necessarily true that the 3 is 'easier to build' nor that it 'has no new tech' that would produce delays. in fact, it will be the first car to utilize the brand new batt coming out of the GF

this is before we get to the issue of delays from the very possible work overload of Service Centres and SpC from the order of magnitude greater 3's that Tesla is expecting to be on the road.

The battery packs from the Gigafactory will be fine. Tesla Motors staff will be fine. The Gigafactory is already ahead of schedule. Considering the expansion of Superchargers, Service Centers, and Tesla Stores over the past 12 months, I doubt there will be any shortages over the coming 24-30 months. Tesla Motors will likely sue the ever loving daylights out of those states that bar direct sales beginning around 18 months before the intended release of Model ☰. That will clear the way for direct sales in across the entire US.



I figure the Model ☰ will be shown around January-March 2016. You will likely be able to reserve a place in line beginning June/July 2016. The design studio would probably open around April/May 2017. First deliveries would take place in perhaps June/July 2017. Production and deliveries will ramp up much more quickly for Model ☰ than was seen for Model S or Model X. Something like ~32,000 owners will get their cars during 2017, and European deliveries will begin in 2018. All this is absolutely doable.

 

[Nomad]

...

I figure the Model ☰ will be shown around January-March 2016. You will likely be able to reserve a place in line beginning June/July 2016. The design studio would probably open around April/May 2017. First deliveries would take place in perhaps June/July 2017. Production and deliveries will ramp up much more quickly for Model ☰ than was seen for Model S or Model X. Something like ~32,000 owners will get their cars during 2017, and European deliveries will begin in 2018. All this is absolutely doable.

What gives you the inclination that the reveal date and reservation availability date will be different? The Model S and X were available for reservation immediately after their initial reveal.

I plan on reserving the Model 3 as soon as the option is available, but my funds aren't liquid. I'm trying to determine when I should convert to cash. An early reservation will likely pay for itself with the federal tax credit.

Just curious on your reasoning for the staggered reveal / reserve dates.

 

[JRP3]

you dont know that.

I do know that, since I have fairly good knowledge of lithium ion cells and pack construction. A more energy dense cell means pack construction is easier, which is kind of the whole point. It becomes easier and cheaper to build in range. Not only is the cell going to be more energy dense, they are using a slightly larger cell, further cutting down on the numbers of cells needed per kWh.

 

[MassModel3]

I do know that, since I have fairly good knowledge of lithium ion cells and pack construction. A more energy dense cell means pack construction is easier, which is kind of the whole point. It becomes easier and cheaper to build in range. Not only is the cell going to be more energy dense, they are using a slightly larger cell, further cutting down on the numbers of cells needed per kWh.

I don't know if I'd say that construction of the Model 3 battery packs will be 'easier', but I do think that the process could be improved upon. No, I don't know that there are problems with the current process, but most every process can be improved upon when combining forethought and hindsight, topped with a healthy serving of lessons learned. The cells will likely more dense and possible slightly larger, meaning fewer cells, but the serial/parallel configuration will still be required, which is a large part of the battery pack's complexity. Plus, starting from the ground up with the Gigafactory, I'm sure there will be numerous changes to the build process.

 

[JRP3]

The cells will likely more dense and possible slightly larger, meaning fewer cells,

That's it, stop right there. Fewer cells, fewer connections, faster and easier assembly. Assuming they run the motors/inverters at the same voltage, which is likely, then the series connections will be the same but fewer parallel connections. It's possible that a different chemistry operates at a different voltage, so if higher than the inverter can handle then fewer series connections, if lower more series connections, but over all fewer parallel connections, and fewer connections in general. I'm expecting mostly further tweaks to existing chemistry so cell voltage should be the same. A more stable electrolyte may allow slightly higher charge voltages but I'd expect that to still be in range of the current motor/inverter.

 

[Tasdevil]

Just to add to JPR3s point;
Tesla is not constructing something new, it's still packing batteries with the current technology that's on the market today.
And Panasonic is their biggest partner and they know a thing or two about running a battery factory.

The biggest obstacle is 100,000 model 3s. And the capital needed to expand the factory to produce that number (and beyond) and not loosing sales because people aren't willing to wait.

 

[Red Sage]

Just curious on your reasoning for the staggered reveal / reserve dates.

Tesla Motors will probably make them the same date. But people look at the the reveal of the Model S in 2009... And it was released in 2012. They then look at the reveal of the Model X in 2012... And some still don't believe it will be released in 2015. The very basis of this thread is that someone doesn't believe the Model ☰ will arrive until after the Gigafactory is complete... Even though every single report from Tesla Motors has said the Gigafactory would be operational and ramping up capacity through 2020, some have convinced themselves that means the cars won't come until 500,000 can be built the first year... I believe what Tesla Motors has actually said, that the Gigafactory will begin producing battery cells in 2016. I believe that battery packs will be in sufficient supply to begin deliveries of Model ☰ in 2017.

Because of those beliefs, and the demonstrated reticence of Naysayers and Enthusiasts alike to actually believe Tesla Motors, I think it best to not take anyone's money three years ahead of time, or even two years ahead of time. People keep harping about having made a 'zero interest, open ended term loan' to Tesla Motors... Naysayers claim it is a scam, a pyramid scheme, that people have been 'robbed' of their money... I say screw all that and make them wait.

Show the car with less than two years left prior to launch. Take reservations with 12 months or less left prior to first delivery. Get the car out on time, in mid-2017 at the latest, and tell $#0r+s, Bears, and Naysayers to [SIERRA TANGO FOXTROT UNIFORM] for once and for all.

 

[tftf]

look at the reveal of the Model X.And some still don't believe it will be released in 2015...

Show the car with less than two years left prior to launch. Take reservations with 12 months or less left prior to first delivery. Get the car out on time, in mid-2017 at the latest, and tell $#0r+s, Bears, and Naysayers to [SIERRA TANGO FOXTROT UNIFORM] for once and for all.

But what does 'released' mean? They may get the X into the hands of some early adopters in late 2015, but meaningful volume deliveries could well slip into early 2016 in my opinion.

A mid-2017 date fo Model 3 is very unrealistic in my opinion. 2019 is quite probable for volume production, maybe they will manage to squeeze in some first Model 3 deliveries in late 2018 (similar to X deliveries in late 2015).

It usually takes 2.5 to 3 years to design a car and then up to another year to test it and pass certifications before actual production ramps up. Tesla's filings show that almost no specific R&D work expenses have been booked for the Model 3 until now.

 

[Model 3]

But what does 'released' mean?

And what does "volume production" mean? Yes, the volume of the Model 3 production in 2019 will be higher then the volume in 2018 that will be higher then the volume in 2017. No doubt about that. They will not produce/deliver 300k Model 3 in 2017. And looking at that numbers - 300-500k in 2020 - you may say that it will not be a "volume production" in 2017. With numbers like this you may call eg. 20-30k deliveries in 2017 for "get into the hands of some early adopters", but for me that is still volume production.

And how do you know that no part of the R&D work expenses that in the Tesla's filings is on the Model 3?

 

[tftf]

I wrote above that I see no Model 3 production start until later in 2018 (H2 2018), so there would obviously be no Model 3 sales in 2017 in this scenario.

From the 10-Q in November 2014:

...start early design work on Model 3.

Emphasis mine. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/141107/tsla10-q.html

Up to that point, almost all R&D resources went into the S, X and the Superchargers.

Tesla has to get both the battery and car ramp-up right, it can't afford a major design flaw and recall of either the Model 3 cars and/or Model 3 batteries.

That's my current prediction based on available data. I will update it once the Model X is shipping.

 

[JRP3]

It usually takes 2.5 to 3 years to design a car and then up to another year to test it and pass certifications before actual production ramps up. Tesla's filings show that almost no specific R&D work expenses have been booked for the Model 3 until now.

Take the Model S design, plug it into software with -20% parameters, then tweak the styling for a more modern look with slightly better aero. I don't think it takes as long to design a new vehicle as it used to since much more modeling can take place on a computer.

 

[Matias]

I wrote above that I see no Model 3 production start until later in 2018 (H2 2018), so there would obviously be no Model 3 sales in 2017 in this scenario.

From the 10-Q in November 2014:



Emphasis mine. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/141107/tsla10-q.html

Up to that point, almost all R&D resources went into the S, X and the Superchargers.

Tesla has to get both the battery and car ramp-up right, it can't afford a major design flaw and recall of either the Model 3 cars and/or Model 3 batteries.

That's my current prediction based on available data. I will update it once the Model X is shipping.

Also from same 10-Q:

" After the Model X, our goal is to introduce the Model 3, a lower priced sedan designed for the mass market, in 2017."

Introduce != start production ?

 

[KJD]

Show the car with less than two years left prior to launch. Take reservations with 12 months or less left prior to first delivery. Get the car out on time, in mid-2017 at the latest, and tell $#0r+s, Bears, and Naysayers to [SIERRA TANGO FOXTROT UNIFORM] for once and for all.

I like that. Well done.

Seriously the only thing that will shut up the naysayers is put the X into production and let people buy the darned thing.

Tesla needs to be more than a "One Hit Wonder".

 

[wart]

My thoughts on the Gen 3 timeline based on some ideas I've seen elsewhere on the forum.

I believe the Model X delay isn't about the vehicle itself, but is about Tesla wanting to optimize the manufacturing capacity and process before they start building the vehicle in large volumes. Elon has said a couple of times that engineering the manufacturing process, not just engineering the vehicle, is a big challenge. Hopefully the lessons they learn in engineering the Gen 2 manufacturing process will help speed up the rollout of the Gen 3 manufacturing process.

Tesla started taking deposits for Model S in 2009 (I think?) because they needed cash. They started taking deposits for the Model X in 2012 (?) because they still needed cash and they thought they needed a second model to get more sales volume out of the Gen 2 platform. Since the sales of the Model S sedan exceeded expectations, the Model X isn't really necessary to get more sales volume. Tesla can afford to delay the Model X because they are raising all the money they need by selling the Model S.

I believe now that the timeline for the Gen 3 platform will be different than Gen 2 because the business environment is different now. Tesla doesn't need to show a Model 3 concept 3 years early, because they don't need the publicity or cash. They are getting plenty of both from Model S. But Tesla does want to get Model 3 out the door as quickly as possible because it's a vital step in the Secret Master Plan. If we guess that Tesla is using the Gen 2 profits and experience to work on improving the vehicle engineering and manufacturing capability for Gen 3, the main obstacle left is battery production volume. As I understand it now the Gigafactory will go up in phases and phase 1 will start producing cells in 2016. I don't think we know how many cells though, and how many will be needed for Gen 2 vehicles and stationary storage products at that time.

That said I'm still not quite as optimistic as Red Sage. I'm still guessing that we'll see the first actual Model 3 deliveries no earlier than late 2017.

 

[scaesare]

Take the Model S design, plug it into software with -20% parameters, then tweak the styling for a more modern look with slightly better aero. I don't think it takes as long to design a new vehicle as it used to since much more modeling can take place on a computer.

I think the real challenge here is to reduce the sedan size by 20%, but the price by >50%.

Yes, the GF-produced battery pack is a good chunk of that, but certainly the car itself must also be made more inexpensively. And a 20% reduction in materials cost does not equate to a 20% reduction in manufacturing cost... it's less than that by a good margin.

So Tesla has to develop a world-class EV that will:

-Just as safe from a pack management/protection perspective

-Contain equivalent systems to operate the platform

-Be easily mass-manufactured in the 500K+/yr range

-Meet buyer performance expectations that exceeds similarly priced competition (range, acceleration, etc...)

-Live up to the rigors of usage by 10X the numbers buyers, many who may not "treat" the car the same way a luxury platform may be treated


And yet they have to do that for a substantially reduced cost. There's a lot of engineering effort there that goes beyond scaling the current platform -20% and minor style tweaking.

 

[Matias]

I believe it is much harder to manufacture affordable good car, than expensive good car.

 

[roblab]

I think the real challenge here is to reduce the sedan size by 20%, but the price by >50%.

Yes, the GF-produced battery pack is a good chunk of that, but certainly the car itself must also be made more inexpensively. And a 20% reduction in materials cost does not equate to a 20% reduction in manufacturing cost... it's less than that by a good margin.

Well, to start with, a cube 10 feet on a side has a 1000 cubic feet. Reduce by 20% gives 8 feet on a side: 512 cubic feet. That's about half, I'd say.

Then, manufacturing cost is always divided into each car. 50,000 Model S had to pay for $5M development and mfg cost, which runs out to $10 per car. 350,000 Model 3 paying for another 3.5 million development (they've already done most of the work on the S) comes out to a dollar a car. I figure that same math could apply to all the rest, so half the profit per car (making $25K profit now, Model 3 would make $12K profit) would easily pay for needed profit.

Then we drop the price of building the battery by a third ($40K less a third is 27K) and make it smaller by a third from 300 mile to 200 mile (so our 27 K becomes < 20K), so the battery is about half price.

I don't see a problem. High level fit and finish, moderate size and range, for half price. Doable!