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I will acknowledge MitchJi in that when I re-read the CC my question was vaguely answered regarding the accelerated ramp of M3 and how that will affect Tesla Energy growth moving forward at the gigafactory site. "We have a plan for that". No details given though.
I still would like to know when the next phase of the gigafactory is going to break ground. Perhaps they have much greater utilization of existing space so rapid expansion of the factory isn't needed. This drops CapEx and does affect share price. That's why I want to know.
I still would like to know when the next phase of the gigafactory is going to break ground. Perhaps they have much greater utilization of existing space so rapid expansion of the factory isn't needed. This drops CapEx and does affect share price. That's why I want to know.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Thanks! Means a lot to me particularly since I've been a jerk this morning. Plan to make two more posts, one with another question (one per post before the deadline), and one with my reasons.
Will you please give your current best estimate of your funding needs for the accelerated M3 ramp? More equity raises? Percentage of funds from MS-MX production and TE?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
How long do you expect it will take to complete the additional GF phases? How do you plan to fund the expansion?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
IMO the current gorilla for TSLA investors is the M3 ramp.
IMO this is a slam dunk opportunity, but it will probably be a bumpy ride. For example I think the worst case scenario is something like zero M3's produced in 2017, ~100k by end of Q! 2018, and 300k cars produced in 2018. If you are holding shares that should be hugely positive, but J18 LEAPS could be a disaster.
So I am interested in items that will effect the perception between now and then.
MX production is huge, as that impacts the perception of both funding and production, but I also think that the chances of getting any useful information from a question on that issue are close to zero.
I believe funding and GF are two big issues. Any insight we can get on timing could be beneficial (I think the timing of the steak, not the sizzle is most important now).
IMO this is a slam dunk opportunity, but it will probably be a bumpy ride. For example I think the worst case scenario is something like zero M3's produced in 2017, ~100k by end of Q! 2018, and 300k cars produced in 2018. If you are holding shares that should be hugely positive, but J18 LEAPS could be a disaster.
So I am interested in items that will effect the perception between now and then.
MX production is huge, as that impacts the perception of both funding and production, but I also think that the chances of getting any useful information from a question on that issue are close to zero.
I believe funding and GF are two big issues. Any insight we can get on timing could be beneficial (I think the timing of the steak, not the sizzle is most important now).
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I don't think that floor space is nearly as expensive as the cell manufacturing equipment, and I don't think it's possible for them increase the utilization to even close to that extent.
I just sent the top questions and # votes to Tesla's IR. I've also let them know I'll send an update tomorrow (Tuesday) at 10am PT so I can give you guys some more time voting. (note: I'm not sure if they'll have time to use the updated version tomorrow, but I'll try)
So, keep voting and keep posting. I'll post again when I've sent Tesla IR the final update.
So, keep voting and keep posting. I'll post again when I've sent Tesla IR the final update.
Given the rapid acceleration of Climate Change, the COP21 declarations, the proposals by several countries to ban ICE vehicles starting 2025, the demand for Model 3, does Tesla have plans to switch from the steady progress originally specified in the Secret Master Plan, to a plan of producing as many vehicles as fast as possible. This means starting the build of more production facilities and gigafactories ASAP.
I guess my point is, if they need a lot more batteries for late 2017, and Tesla Energy is already using a large part of the existing gigafactory, they better break ground quickly to build additional space for the cell production/car battery pack portion of the factory. OR, as I was guessing, perhaps they can use existing space in a much more efficient manner and fit their needs in the existing space for the moment. Expansion will happen, but not as quickly as they originally stated since they can maximize the space already built. This will help going forward as they can build to suit actual ramps and not just "spray and pray". I have a feeling they overestimated the building size need on purpose. Better to have to scale back your construction timeline then to scramble to build more.
The cost of automotive packs and margin for automotive packs are immaterial to and is not subject of my question. If you are referring to my conclusion about approximate parity in dollar profit per kWh of batteries used in TA vs TE, the underlying calculation does not depend on knowledge of the automotive battery pack cost/margin.
Here is a sample of such calculation:
Model S (future) ASP = $90,000
Model S (future) GM = 30%
Model S (future) GP: $90,000 x 0.3 = $27,000
Model S (future) GP per kWh $27,000 / 90kWh = $300/kWh
PowerPack (future) cost = $250/kWh x 0.7 = $175/kWh
PowerPack (future) price = $470/kWh
Power Pack (future) GP per kwH $470/kWh-$175/kWh = $295/kWh
The approximate parity between the dollar profit per kWh of batteries used in TA vs TE shown above has huge implications for the profitability of the company, as it implies that gross profit for TE and TA can be the same. Since TE operational expenses are much lower than for TA (only incremental R&D, no service centers/stores, etc.) the net profit per kWh of batteries used in TE is potentially significantly higher than for TA.
Given that both Elon and JB indicated that they now see GF output designated for TE as equal to the output of the GF slated for TA, the above means that value of the company is at least double of the one based on future TA profits alone.
All of the above, however, hinges on ability of Tesla to maintain this approximate parity between the gross margins per kWh of batteries used for TE vs TA, hence my original question.
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"I live in central New York and our nearest service center is four hours drive away. This is suppressing sales; dozens of people have told me they would buy a Tesla if the service center was closer. What is Tesla doing to solve the problem of geographical coverage for service centers?"
Dammit, I guess I didn't get this in before the deadline. Hope someone else asked essentially the same question, since I think it's the only important question which they have any chance of being able to answer.
Dammit, I guess I didn't get this in before the deadline. Hope someone else asked essentially the same question, since I think it's the only important question which they have any chance of being able to answer.
At some point in the not so distant future, will I be able to:
- House my autonomous Model 3 at a remote location for charging and servicing via a subscription service AND;
- Remotely command my autonomous car to interface with third party services/companies for the delivery of goods/services at a designated time and/or location and then return to the hub when the functions are completed?
See post #50 (I think), lot's of thumbs ups. Not exactly the same, but basically addressing the question about increasing service centers and superchargers prior to model 3.
Gerasimental
Member
Many customers, both new customers and long-time owners of multiple Tesla vehicles, have found the company's communication with its customers, and apparent internal communication, to be considerably lacking. This can alienate customers, harm the brand, and lead to operational inefficiencies. As a shareholder, I view this as one of the main weaknesses of the company.
Is the board aware of this issue and can it assure investors that it is taking action to tackle it?
Thank you for all your fantastic work.
Is the board aware of this issue and can it assure investors that it is taking action to tackle it?
Thank you for all your fantastic work.
Haxster
Member
In this future autonomous scenario, it almost sounds like you don't need to actually OWN a car. There would likely be car sharing and delivery services that should meet these needs... and more.
(Thank you DaveT for your efforts. Hope these following questions make the cut.)
With the primary concern for stock holders/analysts around capability of production ramp and demand, can you please explain how the Model S and X are now examples of lessons learned (i.e. are you now able to meet production and delivery planned)?
With the primary concern for stock holders/analysts around capability of production ramp and demand, can you please explain how the Model S and X are now examples of lessons learned (i.e. are you now able to meet production and delivery planned)?
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