I don't think it was a coincidence that they raised the combined horsepower of the motors to 740 just before releasing a battery that could supply 740 hp. Battery and motors are now maxed out.
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Right but I took his tweet to be broader than that. I must be wrong. Maybe this pack but not ever.
Earlier he made a comment that this particular battery chassis was at the theoretical limit. So I don't know if he means ever. That seems like an arbitrary limit.
They need a redesigned shape of the pack beyond this point. Whether that means a new model car, I don't know. I think they could make some minor modifications to the model s to accommodate perhaps a taller pack, but it wouldn't fit existing cars.
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sillydriver
Member
He probably wants to discourage people from waiting for more in order to maximize near term demand.
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We've had articles talking about how the 100kW pack involves packing more of the same cells into the same space.
I'm thinking that's what the theoretical limit discussion is about - that they have nearly reached the maximum theoretical density for packing 18650 cells together, and so without a chemistry change they can't get more energy into an 18650 based pack.
Of course, they've also said that the new 21700 cells pack significantly more energy per unit volume...
I don't think anyone expects that the 110kwh pack is just around the corner, and is waiting for it.
Hasn't the combined rating of both motors been 762 since the P90DL was introduced? I don't mean how much power the car makes but how much power the motors can handle. And they did that without actually changing the drive units. When the P90DL came out they were using the same drive units as the P85D.
I just like to go by what he said, not by what I think he probably meant to have said. Of course if you expand the time line, capacity of 18650 cells will increase. Currently, the way to increase capacity is to add silicon to the graphite anode, but that has the unfortunate side effect of increasing internal resistance and lowering power. So the only way to increase capacity would be to decrease power. I don't see them doing that. So in the near term on the manufacturing time line, they've reached the theoretical limit.
I meant 760, 567*1.341. They knew they were going to be able to produce 760 hp with the battery, that's why they up rated the unchanged motors. They're not really any more powerful, but they can absorb that power for a brief time. But they have to pull the power back sooner.
500Kw * 1.341 is 671 hp. That's pretty close to the combined power they had for the p85d isn't it? That seems to be the thermal limit of the motors, since we're not seeing much of an improvement in performance from the extra peak hp.
And they're using the same drive units now.
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Piney999
Member
You could be right. I remember seeing a video where he said he thought 300 miles range was enough, and that making batteries cheaper was more important. 100kwh gives him his 300 miles, so maybe it's not so arbitrary.
Well, you do get 315 miles of range. They've always charged more for increased range.
They also had an across the board price increase at the same time, so all of that $12k isn't just for the battery.
sillydriver
Member
I doubt anyone is expecting a 110 pack around the corner since the 100 is brand new. However, I think people who bought a P85D a mere year and a half ago are more likely to upgrade to P100D if they are assured the P100D was all there will be for a long time, where there won't be a continuing treadmill of increasing capacities to make them regret a premature upgrade. I have a P85D and it makes me think about it, although I'm not going to bite now because its pretty sure there's going to be an increment to AP hardware in advance of the M3 shipping next summer.
Also, consider his comment "I think we will probably stop at 100 kWh on battery size." I think that's a pretty odd comment for Elon to nonchalantly put out on the Twitter feed because if taken at face value it's bad long-term news for the company since it implies range improvements vs ICE are going to stall and other BEV companies are going to be given an opportunity to catch up. Yet unlike, say, Donald Trump, I think Elon chooses what he tweets carefully and for a purpose. So I think he sent out this terse blurb not to blurt out the news that the company's technological future is stalling in an important dimension but rather as a calculated risk that some will interpret it that way but others will take the bait and upgrade their P85Ds sooner.
I agree with what others have said above. 100 is about the max for current tech. Next gen chemistry probably raises the limits a bit. You can still raise the energy density of the overall pack using the 21700 cells while retaining a similar form factor. Or even keep it at 100, but create a smaller pack, with less weight, that will add range & lowers costs.
Until more people demand more, if 100 covers most, stick with what works and lower your costs.
Until more people demand more, if 100 covers most, stick with what works and lower your costs.
He has said that he thinks 300 miles range is enough, and that going forward making batteries cheaper is more important. 100Kwh gives him his 300 miles.
If you don't get a "P", the range on a regular 100D could be 340-350 miles. Not too shabby.
sillydriver
Member
It may be enough at the 60D or M3 price point, but remember, we're talking about a $150K car here. That car exists to reap high gross margins from people who will pay up to get the most that technology will deliver. Ending range improvements to concentrate on pack cost in that space contradicts the reasoning behind having such a car as the P100D.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Try to make the 90 before the D announce and fail so ship the 85.
Make the 90 and move production to that.
Put 100s in some P90DLs and check field reliability all the while limiting capacity to 90 in software.
Release the P100DL at really stupid margins (still not bad value for performance) once proven on the street in P90DL trim.
This would explain why the cars were over hyped at the D launch and why some of the latest P90DLs are performing like the new P100DL. If the software limit prevents charging to 100%, the P90DL with 100 battery would be just slightly slower than the new P100DL. If they are shaving the 10 KW-Hr at the end of discharge, the later P90DLs will be as fast as the P100DLs. CAN bus data for cell voltage at end of charge will tell us; again, all of this assuming they field trial'd the 100 battery.
Good to see Tesla returning to under spec'ing their product leaving out 1/4 mile and such performance metrics. DragTimes is already filling in these data and youtube videos will soon follow. I really hope Tesla never returns to the D announce way of doing things.
Make the 90 and move production to that.
Put 100s in some P90DLs and check field reliability all the while limiting capacity to 90 in software.
Release the P100DL at really stupid margins (still not bad value for performance) once proven on the street in P90DL trim.
This would explain why the cars were over hyped at the D launch and why some of the latest P90DLs are performing like the new P100DL. If the software limit prevents charging to 100%, the P90DL with 100 battery would be just slightly slower than the new P100DL. If they are shaving the 10 KW-Hr at the end of discharge, the later P90DLs will be as fast as the P100DLs. CAN bus data for cell voltage at end of charge will tell us; again, all of this assuming they field trial'd the 100 battery.
Good to see Tesla returning to under spec'ing their product leaving out 1/4 mile and such performance metrics. DragTimes is already filling in these data and youtube videos will soon follow. I really hope Tesla never returns to the D announce way of doing things.
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