I would love to see the tax credits extended. However, I think most of us will get tax credits on our model 3's. It seems like most articles I read about the Tax Credits has been wrong and people keep spreading rumors that most Model 3 buyers won't get it. I totally think that most buyers WILL get the Tax Credit. Below is my breakdown.
Once Tesla delivers its 200,000th vehicle in the US, then the 15-month Phaseout process starts.
Pre-Phaseout: The CALENDAR QUARTER that the 200,000th vehicle is sold in is entitled to the FULL $7500 tax credit. You get a mulligan for that quarter (so if it starts at the beginning of the quarter you have an extra 3 months here too which will make the total 18 months).
Phaseout Part 1: After the end of the Pre-Phaseout Quarter, then the IRS give you ANOTHER CALENDAR QUARTER (3 months) with the FULL $7500 tax credit.
Phaseout Part 2: After the end of Phaseout Part 1, there are TWO QUARTERS (6 months) with a redued 50% tax credit (that is $3,750).
Phaseout Part 3: After the end of Phaseout Part 2, there are TWO MORE QUARTERS (6 months) with a reduce 25% tax credit (that is $1,875)
Then bye bye tax credits. So there is literally 15 months plus the original quarter the 200,000th car is delivered on. I am pretty darn sure Tesla will attempt to deliver their 200,000th vehicle very very close to the Model 3 release. There is literally 15 months of tax credits for Model 3 owners.
Here are my sources (very reliable as it is from the government themselves with clear examples):
1.
Federal Tax Credits for All-Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles
^^Scroll to the bottom and READ the PHASEOUT SECTION
2. Elon Musk tweeted on Monday, April 4, 2016 "Our production ramp should enable a large number of non X/S customers to receive the credit".
Another twitter suggested to Elon that he slow down production so that the delivery of the Model 3 falls right on the 200,000th vehicle
Elon Musk replied " We always try to maximize customer happiness even if that means a revenue shortfall in a quarter. Loyalty begets loyalty."
^^ I think it is pretty clear that Elon Musk will make sure that most Model 3 buyers get the tax credit.
Attached are some screenshots.
Also for all you guys who do not have a $7500 tax liability, just convert your Traditional IRA into a ROTH IRA and use the tax credit to pay off the taxes for the conversion. A ROTH IRA has no income tax once draws are taken so I think its a good choice..
.