I reiterate: The Tesla Model ≡ will target the BMW 3-Series, and with good reason.
In the United States of America the 3-Series outsells each and every one of the pretenders to its throne by a wide, wide margin.
Don't believe me? Fine. Read up a bit. Compare and contrast:
GOOD CAR BAD CAR: Top 15 Best-Selling Luxury Vehicles In America - 2014 Year End
#1 BMW 3-Series, 142,232
#3 Mercedes-Benz C-Class, 75,065
#9 Lexus IS, 51, 358
#14 AUDI A4, 38,679
#15 Infiniti Q50, 36,899
Not only is the BMW 3-Series the best selling car in the BMW lineup, and the best selling car in its class... It is also the single best selling vehicle across all premium brands in the United States of America. That is why it is so important that Tesla Model ≡ be able to match and surpass its sales.
Think in terms of the magnitude of change in the automotive market this would represent. Tesla Motors went from selling less than 3,000 vehicles over the course of three years... To selling over 30,000 of the Model S last year alone. I expect that Model ≡ will crest 300,000 units during 2019, if not sooner. If only 40% of those were sold in the US, that would be 120,000 units, far more than anyone other than the current market leader. That would send a message, because whatever ends up being Generation IV will certainly aim to reach 3,000,000 units per year worldwide.