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ucmndd
Well-Known Member
There's not much to speculate about.
LR and Plaid are18650 packs with redesigned modules for better cooling. I expect the LR/Plaid packs are identical, and within ~5% of the prior revision's 100kwh capacity based on range numbers.
Plaid+ is the only speculative bit, and it seems obvious to me that Plaid+ is (Plaid + 4680 pack). There's no other way to enable that range within roughly the same packaging.
LR and Plaid are18650 packs with redesigned modules for better cooling. I expect the LR/Plaid packs are identical, and within ~5% of the prior revision's 100kwh capacity based on range numbers.
Plaid+ is the only speculative bit, and it seems obvious to me that Plaid+ is (Plaid + 4680 pack). There's no other way to enable that range within roughly the same packaging.
CWhite
2020 Model S LR+
The 4680’s will likely be packaged with the new structural battery pack. One would think that would require an entirely new chassis system. When the plaid+ comes out they could switch over the S and X to the new layout(likely given the late 2021 date). Would need another 30KWh of storage to get the 520 range, the 4680’s give way more power but I don’t think the storage goes up 30%(trying to remember battery day). Of course a pessimist could point out that they could put another stack of batteries in the back and loose 6” of trunk depth. Or split it between trunk and frunk(how many kWh will fit in the glove box?). Fun to speculate, we will know in less than a year, hopefully.
beatle
Active Member
Why do you think they are still using 18650s? Why not the 2170 cell from the 3/Y? I'd think Tesla would want to move on and consolidate cell production as much as possible instead of supporting the production of 3 different cell sizes.
I wonder how the packaging will work when the platform will utilize cells of different heights.
henderrj
Active Member
as they already completely reworked the battery pack according to Elon, there is absolutely no chance they'll do it again in less than a year. I mean it took how many years to get here? No, I think the pack will be exactly the same exterior dimensions, as I've been saying all along. It'll simply have better interiors with the new cell format.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Because they said they were, and it’s the only obvious outcome.
Tesla as a company is severely cell constrained. The 4680s are not ready. Every single 2170 and then some is already spoken for in other products. Tesla has long-term contracts with Panasonic for 18650s, the production lines exist, the car was originally designed to use them. It would be crazy foolish for them to move away from them just because.
MagnusMako
Member
There's actually nothing speculative about it? It was 100% confirmed as 4680's on Battery Day with the late 2021 deliveries. That range would only be achievable with the more energy dense batteries in the same vehicular form factor.
To me it appears that the refresh brought the first of a two phase strategy for battery/structural revision.
Phase 1 is to significantly revise the battery pack structure and external fitment. This entails using the existing (and available) 18650 batteries within a newly designed housing (the promised structural battery pack). This required significant changes to the car's unibody structure to accommodate the new battery pack, and is primarily responsible for the 250# weight savings of the refreshed vehicle. The battery pack architecture will be available in a 4680 version which will be externally similar and which will (Phase 2) drop into the revised chassis.
Several factors point to this as the rational next step.
BTW, the Yoke might be a bit of a red herring to distract viewers from the real upgrades which are battery and future structure. Not that the yoke is not a real thing, just that it captures most of the headlines.
Phase 1 is to significantly revise the battery pack structure and external fitment. This entails using the existing (and available) 18650 batteries within a newly designed housing (the promised structural battery pack). This required significant changes to the car's unibody structure to accommodate the new battery pack, and is primarily responsible for the 250# weight savings of the refreshed vehicle. The battery pack architecture will be available in a 4680 version which will be externally similar and which will (Phase 2) drop into the revised chassis.
Several factors point to this as the rational next step.
- One longish production line shut down (phase 1) that takes advantage of the holidays followed by little or no shutdown to begin inserting the Phase 2 (4680 cell) batteries into a chassis that is ready to accept it. Less disruptive than two lengthy shutdowns.
- Significant upgrade of the entire model line, not just the Plaid (now Piaid+) so that buyers at several price points have an incentive to purchase, either first time or replacing their current Tesla.
- Improvement in range, charging time, performance across the S and X model lines.
- No need to change motor design, motor quantity & configuration to go from Plaid to Plaid+
- This allows for several months of customer/service center experience with the new chassis/battery pack configuration before introducing even greater loads that will be brought by the + model.
- Spreading out the upgrade process in order to extract the most PR. This puts upward pressure on the value of the company and market pressure on other EV and legacy automakers. (IE: Big announcement now with refresh, another big announcement when + arrives)
- Bear in mind that several other big changes have occured, some of which might have required chassis packaging to change (IE: Heat pump, new motors, improved battery cooling, wider body and chassis (according to updated website)).
BTW, the Yoke might be a bit of a red herring to distract viewers from the real upgrades which are battery and future structure. Not that the yoke is not a real thing, just that it captures most of the headlines.
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ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Eh, that’s a no from me dawg.
I don’t think there’s anything to suggest the structural components of the car have changed at all. I think the external mounting points and vehicle/battery interface points haven’t changed whatsoever.
I think it’s simply a revised 18650 pack with an evolved module design and better cooling. It’s plausible there are less individual cells in the pack due to increased energy density. This seems like a far more likely explanation for the reduced weight than the more radical changes you’re suggesting.
I just don’t see any scenario where they fundamentally redesign the chassis, subframes, and structure while keeping overall exterior styling and dimensions essentially identical.
Has anyone been paying attention to the media? During Sandy Munroe's interview with Ellon, Mr Musk said that future Model S and X would feature front and rear megacastings connected by a structural battery pack. Today, photos of the new Model S megacastings were leaked and are online. I think time has told...
I wonder if the mega castings will be in the latest LR and Plaid being delivered next month.... The structural battery 4680 isn't coming till late this year, so does that mean that the Plaid+ will be stiffer/higher torsional rigidity than the Plaid and LR?
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Source? I don't think there's any indication whatsoever this is what's ending up in production cars now.
As I said earlier, time will tell - and it won't be long now. Within 30-45 days cars will be out in the wild the answer will be obvious.
And on the topic of the refresh, batteries, and Sandys interview with Elon, Elon stated that the 12V battery will now be Li-ion instead of a AGM lead acid battery.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Right, but then you said “time told”, suggesting you’ve decided you were right based presumably on some sort of evidence.
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