POLL:How Many 3's Got Delivered in Q4

[daniel]

2345

I have no idea. Anyway, I already have a Tesla mug. It was in the swag box wit the Roadster. The mug is wider on top. Looks really cool, worthless for drinking, spills too easily.

 

[macpacheco]

2500 !

 

[Starno]

2340

 

[DennisLevitt]

Oh ye of little faith
Minimum 4200 and maybe 6000.

 

[Cobbler]

My vote goes to 1234 cars delivered in q4 '17

Current production rate of 450cars/week. 1000 at the end of this month?

 

[angstrom]

My vote goes for "If it the end of quarter had just shifted a few more days the number would be an exponential step higher..."

 

[smak]

I see what you did there. It also happens to be true from the hundreds of cars we saw at Fremont today.

 

[run-the-joules]

I see what you did there. It also happens to be true from the hundreds of cars we saw at Fremont today.

"we" as in you personally or did I miss some new holding lot pics?

 

[Adm]

1776 Model 3's delivered

 

[run-the-joules]

1776 Model 3's delivered

 

[generalenthu]

1567

Nice work there.

 

[tracksyde]

1,550 Model 3s delivered in Q4
+860 in transit

2,425 Model 3s manufactured in Q4

Currently at about 1,000 Model 3s per week


source: Tesla Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

 

[gregincal]

Nice work there.

Sorry, OP declared Price is Right rules, which means closest without going over. You were over.

 

[generalenthu]

Sorry, OP declared Price is Right rules, which means closest without going over. You were over.

You'll need to wait till the final numbers are out.

 

[gregincal]

1545

This looks closest without going over to me.

 

[powertoold]

A lot of people had good guesses between 1450-1550! Impressive

 

[Twiglett]

the 2018 Q1 version of this poll will be a very different story if they're already at 1K per week.
My Dec-Feb is looking much more realistic

 

[Bad Horse]

904

Totally misread the title and was thinking December deliveries, which inside ev's guess of 1060 makes me feel good about the number.

Overall I think things are fine, ramp seems to be about 3x each month (so far). Should be about 3000 January, 9000 seems like a stretch for February but I could see it doubling after that to 6k in February, 12k March, and ~20k a month by April.

 

[Ulmo]

I have not made a point to be good at knowing this right now. Keep that confidence level in mind.

2,291

Delivered: 1,550
Produced: 2,425
In transit: 860
Delivered + In Transit: 2,410

My guess was closer to produced than delivered. My guess was even closer to delivered + in transit. One problem I have being near the factory is I'm not seeing the output end of delivery very easily. Their produced came out really close to their delivered + in transit.

 

[Dr. J]

Totally misread the title and was thinking December deliveries, which inside ev's guess of 1060 makes me feel good about the number.

Overall I think things are fine, ramp seems to be about 3x each month (so far). Should be about 3000 January, 9000 seems like a stretch for February but I could see it doubling after that to 6k in February, 12k March, and ~20k a month by April.

Tesla is providing slightly lower guidance:

"...we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2."
Tesla Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)