Poll: How many Model 3s did Tesla deliver in October

[Marsnaut]

I think it will actually benefit more people.

The only way it benefits additional people is if they delay the 200k mark until Q2. Unless we hit huge hits to production (that no one can reasonably expect) or they plan on a mix of withholding/exporting 10k+ cars, the Q1 mark will be hit.

Honestly, I don't think the delays will benefit any additional people. They are on track to hit 200,000 by Q1, and that will extend to Q2. Tesla is not constrained by demand but rather by supply. They can only create/deliver so many cars by the end of Q2. It doesn't matter if they hit 200,000 at the beginning of Q1 or the end of Q1 because Tesla is already trying to deliver the maximum number of cars possible.

 

[R.S]

0-100
I think Tesla is at present keeping hundreds/thousands of model 3s in stock until the seats/battery or whatever bottlenecks are solved and then delivers them at the end of november and december. That's why Elon said december will be the month to look forward to (or words to that extent).

The "supplier issue" is apparently not really a supplier issue, but rather a not ready module assembly line.

From the shareholder letter:
“To date, our primary production constraint has been in the battery module assembly line at Gigafactory 1, where cells are packaged into modules. Four modules are packaged into an aluminum case to form a Model 3 battery pack. The combined complexity of module design and its automated manufacturing process has taken this line longer to ramp than expected. The biggest challenge is that the first two zones of a four zone process, key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers, had to be taken over and significantly redesigned by Tesla. We have redirected our best engineering talent to fine-tune the automated processes and related robotic programming, and we are confident that throughput will increase substantially in upcoming weeks and ultimately be capable of production rates significantly greater than the original specification.”

But I don't think they would build cars without packs in them. It would be possible, but you end up with a backlog of cars needing their packs. So I don't think they stockpile them. Or rather, I don't think it would really change anything if they did.

 

[ElecFan]

The "supplier issue" is apparently not really a supplier issue, but rather a not ready module assembly line.

From the shareholder letter:
(...)The biggest challenge is that the first two zones of a four zone process, key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers, had to be taken over and significantly redesigned by Tesla.(...)

So a redesign of key elements which were done by 'manufacturing systems suppliers'. Why isn't that a supplier issue?

But I don't think they would build cars without packs in them. It would be possible, but you end up with a backlog of cars needing their packs. So I don't think they stockpile them. Or rather, I don't think it would really change anything if they did.

I hope they've stockpiled them and that will speed up deliveries as soon as the battery is installed. Where else did all the produced parts go to that Elon's videos showed us?

 

[Barklikeadog]

Dec 2017 - Feb 2018

Based on today's news, I'll meet you halfway and say May 2018 - August 2018

 

[Waiting4M3]

Based on today's news, I'll meet you halfway and say May 2018 - August 2018

I'm hoping before May 2018, but if any more delays it's not really too big of a deal, what else am I going to do besides wait?

PS. when I reserved on 3/31/2016, and then found out I was already 100K+ in line, I wasn't even sure if I would get my car in 2018, so still pretty happy with the schedule.

 

[gregincal]

The "supplier issue" is apparently not really a supplier issue, but rather a not ready module assembly line.

From the shareholder letter:
“To date, our primary production constraint has been in the battery module assembly line at Gigafactory 1, where cells are packaged into modules. Four modules are packaged into an aluminum case to form a Model 3 battery pack. The combined complexity of module design and its automated manufacturing process has taken this line longer to ramp than expected. The biggest challenge is that the first two zones of a four zone process, key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers, had to be taken over and significantly redesigned by Tesla. We have redirected our best engineering talent to fine-tune the automated processes and related robotic programming, and we are confident that throughput will increase substantially in upcoming weeks and ultimately be capable of production rates significantly greater than the original specification.”

But I don't think they would build cars without packs in them. It would be possible, but you end up with a backlog of cars needing their packs. So I don't think they stockpile them. Or rather, I don't think it would really change anything if they did.

Yes it was a supplier issue. It's right there in the text you quoted "key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers". It wasn't a parts supplier issue, it was a manufacturing systems supplier issue.

 

[voip-ninja]

The only way it benefits additional people is if they delay the 200k mark until Q2. Unless we hit huge hits to production (that no one can reasonably expect) or they plan on a mix of withholding/exporting 10k+ cars, the Q1 mark will be hit.

Honestly, I don't think the delays will benefit any additional people. They are on track to hit 200,000 by Q1, and that will extend to Q2. Tesla is not constrained by demand but rather by supply. They can only create/deliver so many cars by the end of Q2. It doesn't matter if they hit 200,000 at the beginning of Q1 or the end of Q1 because Tesla is already trying to deliver the maximum number of cars possible.

Was info provided in the call today that indicates Q1 is going to happen?

They were 50,000 or so units away last quarter.

 

[R.S]

So a redesign of key elements which were done by 'manufacturing systems suppliers'. Why isn't that a supplier issue?

Yes it was a supplier issue. It's right there in the text you quoted "key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers". It wasn't a parts supplier issue, it was a manufacturing systems supplier issue.

Because they don't have issues with some supplied part, but rather need to redesign a part of the production line. That this part of the production line comes from a supplier is a no brainer. But nothing in the text says that the supplier built a faulty product. They just need to redesign it, for some reason. This is a planning/design issue, not a supplier issue.

I hope they've stockpiled them and that will speed up deliveries as soon as the battery is installed. Where else did all the produced parts go to that Elon's videos showed us?

Look, let's imagine you can build 100 toy cars a day and you need 400 wheels for your toy cars, which are done by your friend and he can't do more than 400 a day. Now your friend gets sick for two days and you don't know how to build those wheels. Do you think you could produce more toy cars that month, if you stockpiled them without wheels until your friend comes back?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Because they don't have issues with some supplied part, but rather need to redesign a part of the production line. That this part of the production line comes from a supplier is a no brainer. But nothing in the text says that the supplier built a faulty product. They just need to redesign it, for some reason. This is a planning/design issue, not a supplier issue.

You should probably listen to their quarterly conference call, it has more details on what happened with the supplier. My understanding is that the supplier basically misunderstood Tesla's spec and built the tool wrong. Also later in the call, Tesla (not sure if it was Elon specifically) said that even though the supplier is at fault, the fault ultimately lie at Tesla because they selected a bad supplier

 

[R.S]

You should probably listen to their quarterly conference call, it has more details on what happened with the supplier. My understanding is that the supplier basically misunderstood Tesla's spec and built the tool wrong.

I've been working for tier 1 automotive suppliers long enough to know what that means. IMO Tesla just didn't design that part of module production right and now they are blaming the supplier. The specks for a tool aren't really that plentiful. And if they need to fully redesign it, there would have been a massive misunderstanding.

 

[TaoJones]

I'm hoping before May 2018, but if any more delays it's not really too big of a deal, what else am I going to do besides wait?

PS. when I reserved on 3/31/2016, and then found out I was already 100K+ in line, I wasn't even sure if I would get my car in 2018, so still pretty happy with the schedule.

Eh? Wait, what? How’d you manage to reserve on Day One and get stuck behind 100,000 folks? There were only 115,000 reservations that day in total.

Did you wait until closing time and fly overseas on the wrong side of the International Date Line to place yer deposit?

Now, in fairness, even some of those of us in the first 2% (supposedly existing owners first in line in California) have torpedoed our own advantage by opting for an AWD or performance model.

Ah, I see the May part now. Hard to believe that’s only 6-ish production months away.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Eh? Wait, what? How’d you manage to reserve on Day One and get stuck behind 100,000 folks? There were only 115,000 reservations that day in total.

Did you wait until closing time and fly overseas on the wrong side of the International Date Line to place yer deposit?

Now, in fairness, even some of those of us in the first 2% (supposedly existing owners first in line in California) have torpedoed our own advantage by opting for an AWD or performance model.

Ah, I see the May part now. Hard to believe that’s only 6-ish production months away.

Actually yes, I was traveling in Japan at the time, got up on Fri 4/1 morning and placed online order, which was still 3/31 evening in California around 7:30pm-ish, then soon after that I found out there was already 115K reservations, so I figure I was ~100K in the line.

 

[gregincal]

I've been working for tier 1 automotive suppliers long enough to know what that means. IMO Tesla just didn't design that part of module production right and now they are blaming the supplier. The specks for a tool aren't really that plentiful. And if they need to fully redesign it, there would have been a massive misunderstanding.

My experience is that there is usually enough blame to go around (generally engineering experience, not automotive specific). The main point is that when Tesla said that the production bottleneck was due to a supplier issue, this is what they were referring to. They believe the supplier screwed up the production line, and they fired them and had to bring the programming in house, thus the delay.

 

[jstoneman]

BRRUUUUTal Conference call. I hope they get stuff worked out.