Poll: Tesla US EV Federal Tax Credit ends Q1 or Q2 ???

[Moderatefan]

That's funny, I distinctly remember a promise in 2016 that Model 3 standards would be in the driveway by today. In fact, "Early 2018" was even written on my reservation screen. By any measure, those people who stood in line on March 31, 2016 were promised that they would have the car before the full tax credit ran out, based on Musk's own public predictions on delivery.

Well, I was not one of those people. Reserved when the counter was around 250-300K and when I showed up at Tesla store months later and talked to assistant, I remember him telling me that state credit will likely be there, but not Federal. I apologize that I did not research your side of the story and spoke for myself.

I suppose you can call the first-production-buyers jumping the line policy a new "choice I did not count on." But if a choice costs you $20K more than you were planning on, how is it a fair choice?
I'm always amazed at the lengths people go in the Forum to defend Tesla... I'm not a Tesla troll, just pointing out something that's fairly obvious, which is that Tesla decided that its wealthier customers were more of a priority and should get more discounts.
JG

For those waiting for SR it's not fair. However, Tesla could be in a much worse place financially now if they started deliveries from the base configuration. Hopefully, you will still have $3750 by the time you get yours.

 

[Garlan Garner]

OP....you need to change the title of the thread now. lol

 

[wdolson]

Dolt-son, I bought one of the first Leafs and of course got the full $7,500 credit. But the fact that you think someone who doesn't want to pay 54K-60K for a car owes less than $7,500 in total federal taxes shows that you are pretty far out of touch.
JG

There is no need to denigrate my intelligence for bringing the point. I paid $100K for my Model S and I did not use all of the credit because I didn't owe $7500 in federal income taxes that year (my total tax bill when other taxes were counted was definitely higher, but the credit only applies to federal income taxes).

Several months back I found a tax scenario where a family of 4 made $100K a year and just barely owed $7500. I can't find it at the moment.

There are so many variables in the tax code two people making the same gross income can have dramatically different tax situations.

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla needs to sell less than 16,199 US vehicles in the next 2 months to remain under the 200,000 Federal credit limit.
This appears to be highly unlikely given the current sales rate ramp in 2018 (even considering the Canada sales push)
That means they must deliver less than 1,800/week to the US the rest of this quarter... It's going to be very close.
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

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[kengchang]

Tesla is also going to change the delivery pattern starting Q3, no more jamming for delivery at end of quarter push.

We are in the process of changing the quarterly production pattern of Model S and X vehicles for the various worldwide regions to ensure a more linear flow of deliveries through the quarter. We believe this will provide a better customer experience and reduce the stress on our delivery system. Consequently, Model S and X deliveries in Q2 will likely be similar to Q1 but should pick up considerably in Q3 to achieve our goal of 100,000 deliveries for the full year.

 

[dsvick]

By any measure, those people who stood in line on March 31, 2016 were promised that they would have the car before the full tax credit ran out, based on Musk's own public predictions on delivery.

Since when is a prediction of future deliveries a promise? Someone's inflated expectations or misinterpretation of what was actually said do not change what was actually stated.

I suppose you can call the first-production-buyers jumping the line policy a new "choice I did not count on." But if a choice costs you $20K more than you were planning on, how is it a fair choice?

It may not be fair but it was their stated intention from the beginning so crying foul two years later is a bit disingenuous.

 

[Dr. J]

I do beg to differ my distinguished and flattering colleague.

At least we won't get banished to Snippiness....

Edit....unlike some other people around here.

 

[dhanson865]

Tesla needs to sell less than 16,199 US vehicles in the next 2 months to remain under the 200,000 Federal credit limit.
This appears to be highly unlikely given the current sales rate ramp in 2018 (even considering the Canada sales push)
That means they must deliver less than 1,800/week to the US the rest of this quarter... It's going to be very close.
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
View attachment 298630​

You and I have differing ideas on what is highly unlikely then.

April 2018 from that table is 6,150 for S, 3, X combined, 16,199 / 2 = 8099.5 per month which is more than they did in April.

* Ship (S, 3, X) to Canada and deliver ASAP
* Ship (S, 3, X) across the US but don't deliver until July 2nd
* Ship overseas (for S / X, not Model 3)
* Stockpile Model 3 on lots in California prepared to be shipped

Plenty of ways to keep production ramping and still keep US deliveries under 8100 per month.

 

[FlatSix911]

You and I have differing ideas on what is highly unlikely then.

April 2018 from that table is 6,150 for S, 3, X combined, 16,199 / 2 = 8099.5 per month which is more than they did in April.

* Ship (S, 3, X) to Canada and deliver ASAP
* Ship (S, 3, X) across the US but don't deliver until July 2nd
* Ship overseas (for S / X, not Model 3)
* Stockpile Model 3 on lots in California prepared to be shipped

Plenty of ways to keep production ramping and still keep US deliveries under 8100 per month.

Yes there are ways to stockpile cars in the US, but stockholders will not be happy unless they are delivered

 

[DR61]

Yes there are ways to stockpile cars in the US, but stockholders will not be happy unless they are delivered

I am a stockholder and I will be very happy if they stockpile to maximize the tax credit for customers, even though it may delay my delivery until sometime in July. It's best for customers and best for long term profit for the company.

 

[dhanson865]

Yes there are ways to stockpile cars in the US, but stockholders will not be happy unless they are delivered

A significant portion of the reservation holders that are waiting for a Model 3 are stock owners. They'll be fine with it.

Also the largest stockholder is Elon Musk who in the most recent conference call made it clear he isn't worried about short term goals. He has the long term in mind.

and as a TSLA shareholder myself, I'm fine with the hit this quarter to make the rest of the year work better.

 

[seattlite2004]

I wonder which one of these stockholders will also be happy if they stockpile:

 

[DR61]

I wonder which one of these stockholders will also be happy if they stockpile:

All of them if they are smart.

 

[R.S]

I wonder which one of these stockholders will also be happy if they stockpile:

View attachment 299197

View attachment 299198

I’ve heard Blackrock, as well as FMR each have a Model 3 reservation and they are counting on the full tax credit.

 

[dhanson865]

All of them if they are smart.

I love how I mention 4 factors and they focus solely on the 4th which is static stockpiling in parking lots in California. That stockpiling would be minimal and the quarter would have increased sales and production well in excess of year over year comparisons and higher than prior quarter comparisons no matter if they shut down the line or they stockpile.

April 2018 from that table is 6,150 for S, 3, X combined, 16,199 / 2 = 8099.5 per month which is more than they did in April.

* Ship (S, 3, X) to Canada and deliver ASAP
* Ship (S, 3, X) across the US but don't deliver until July 2nd
* Ship overseas (for S / X, not Model 3)

Every car sold in Canada isn't stockpiling.
Every car shipped to a destination as quickly as it can be but not sold until July 2nd isn't stockpiling unless you are doing that way in advance. That line was just mentioning the normal in transit quantity to remind people production does not equal delivery. At some point you ship to the east coast first and back fill as you approach July 2nd.
Every car shipped overseas no matter when it ships isn't stockpiling. Those are done for existing orders and only existing orders.

 

[FlatSix911]

I am a stockholder and I will be very happy if they stockpile to maximize the tax credit for customers, even though it may delay my delivery until sometime in July. It's best for customers and best for long term profit for the company.

Let's hope we are both right!

 

[kengchang]

Considering 3-6 week delivery time, early July is within 6 weeks if you order by mid May

 

[JZtheHW]

As of May 1, Tesla delivered 184,660 vehicles in the US, sometime in the Q2 2018, Tesla will reach 200,000 sales in the US. The tax credit for Q3, Q4 will be reduced to $3750 for sure. For Q1, Q2 2019, the tax credit will be $1875, after that, no tax credit.

 

[TT97]

As of May 1, Tesla delivered 184,660 vehicles in the US, sometime in the Q2 2018, Tesla will reach 200,000 sales in the US. The tax credit for Q3, Q4 will be reduced to $3750 for sure. For Q1, Q2 2019, the tax credit will be $1875, after that, no tax credit.

Why do you think Tesla will not delay the U.S. sales to hit 200k in Q3?

 

[kengchang]

As of May 1, Tesla delivered 184,660 vehicles in the US, sometime in the Q2 2018, Tesla will reach 200,000 sales in the US. The tax credit for Q3, Q4 will be reduced to $3750 for sure. For Q1, Q2 2019, the tax credit will be $1875, after that, no tax credit.

You didn't even get the tax credit rule/schedule right if Tesla hit 200K in Q2, just saying....