Poll: Tesla US EV Federal Tax Credit ends Q1 or Q2 ???

[ölbrenner]

Based on insideev's numbers, total Tesla US domestic deliveries are 158,611 up to 2017 year end (someone check my math please).

Based on this, and my swag on when Tesla will start delivering significant numbers of Model 3's, I think there is a 50/50 chance of the federal tax credit phase out starting in Q1, and 100% chance of it ending in Q2 if Q1 milestone does not happen.

So good news is full credit is available through June 2018, and a possibility it will extend to end of September 2018.

Since so many are still misinformed about the credit, please make sure you actually understand the credit and its phase out before polling and posting. And there's always those that have a better idea of how the poll should have been done, by all means just do it instead of complaining here.

Looking forward to your thoughts!

 

[CUBldr97]

yes I think your numbers are valid and would expect the full $7500 to end this quarter. maybe Tesla will game it just right to reach 199,999 at end of quarter 1, so it will carry over to Q2, but by Q3 it will be $3800 or what ever the next tier is for sure. IMHO

 

[voip-ninja]

I don't feel that there is enough information to vote. I do believe that one way or another the full credit ends for September.

There's a decent chance I hold out for AWD which the delivery estimator puts for me in Q4 of this year... so at best I would only get $3750 in federal tax credits.

 

[seattlite2004]

When will the $3750 tax credit run out?

 

[ölbrenner]

I don't feel that there is enough information to vote.

I respect that. But we do have a very solid idea of what S/X sales will be, the real remaining variable is can they ramp up M3 in Q1.

 

[Big Dog]

Based on insideev's numbers,

why not just wait until Tesla reports firm numbers for Q4 instead of a blogger's guess-estimates??

 

[ölbrenner]

When will the $3750 tax credit run out?

Off topic, and from initial post "...please make sure you actually understand the credit and its phase out before polling and postingplease make sure you actually understand the credit and its phase out before polling and posting".

 

[ölbrenner]

why not just wait until Tesla reports firm numbers for Q4 instead of a blogger's guess-estimates??

"And there's always those that have a better idea of how the poll should have been done, by all means just do it instead of complaining here."

 

[shrspeedblade]

With the Model 3 ramp going as slowly as it is, it would be rather dumb to hit 200k in late February or March when they have so many international orders they can fill.

 

[seattlite2004]

Off topic, and from initial post "...please make sure you actually understand the credit and its phase out before polling and postingplease make sure you actually understand the credit and its phase out before polling and posting".

Yeah...OFF TOPIC...Lighten up man.

Yeah.,..,more off topic...for folks (AWD and Performance waiters) that are looking for tax credit info, I found the following: "$3,750 for the next 6 months, then to $1,875 for the next 6 months before expiring completely." So,..for the 3-31-16 line waiters that want AWD and/or Performance..we can expect at least a $1875 tax credit (worst case)...$7500 tax tax credit (best case)...$3750 tax credit (most probable case)

 

[gregincal]

With the Model 3 ramp going as slowly as it is, it would be rather dumb to hit 200k in late February or March when they have so many international orders they can fill.

Except they can't just suddenly start selling internationally. They have to go through the whole process of certifying the cars in other countries, not to mention staffing and setting up for increased distribution in those countries, which costs real money. Whether you think it makes sense or not, it's just not going to happen.

 

[lirandy]

yes I think your numbers are valid and would expect the full $7500 to end this quarter. maybe Tesla will game it just right to reach 199,999 at end of quarter 1,

I feel the same, guess Tesla will have more than 200k cars produced by the end of Q1 2018, but won't start delivering the 200,000th one on the first day of Q2

 

[TaoJones]

I expect the full tax credit to be available through Q3 or Q4 before it is halved.

Clearly this willl depend upon how Tesla chooses to fulfill non-US deliveries.

 

[gregincal]

If there was about 158K sold so far, and it seems like they are selling about 10-15K Model S/X in the US per quarter, that would leave well over 25K Model 3's they'd need to deliver this quarter. I'm guessing that won't happen. They're trying to hit 5K per week in March, but I'm guessing for most of the quarter they will be much closer to 1K per week with the ramp significantly increasing only in March, and quarterly deliveries closer to 20K than 25K. Of course this is a total guess.

 

[Big Dog]

"And there's always those that have a better idea of how the poll should have been done, by all means just do it instead of complaining here."

Not complaining whatsoever.

You are the one that started the poll where you are concerned about "misinformation", but then your starting point is an estimate, which itself could be misinformation. Don't you see the data issue? (Sure, insideev may be the best available this am, but since TLSA will be reporting actual Q4 deliveries later today, why not make your poll as valid as possible, by starting with real numbers direct from elon? I mean, what's the rush, if you want to eliminate as much misinformation as possible?)

 

[MikeDog77]

Based on insideev's numbers, total Tesla US domestic deliveries are 158,611 up to 2017 year end (someone check my math please).

Did you add the Roadster numbers? I came up with 159,799 based on insideev's numbers not counting ANY model 3. I figured we will know this number soon. I have total roadster 1900. Model S = 118,147. Model X = 39,752.

So with that in mind and then adding another 2k Model 3, that would mean about 162k going into Q1. I would assume 10-15k in Model S/X sales in Q1. That would leave the magic number being around 25k Model 3 in Q1 2018. It may be close but as many people are saying if it is that close they, will manipulate it.

I also think that insideev overestimates the USA sales for Q4 2017. I think the Tesla sales are now heavily skewed outside of the USA in places that are still a year or 2 away from getting a Model 3.

 

[dsvick]

I voted for Q2, although it is more wishful thinking than any sort of informed calculation. For a variety of reasons I'm planning to configure in July for an August delivery so having the full credit good through the end of September would be great!!

 

[Dr. J]

yes I think your numbers are valid and would expect the full $7500 to end this quarter. maybe Tesla will game it just right to reach 199,999 at end of quarter 1, so it will carry over to Q2, but by Q3 it will be $3800 or what ever the next tier is for sure. IMHO

I think you misunderstand the phase out of the credit. The full credit is available through the end of the calendar quarter in which a manufacturer delivers 200,000 cars in the US, plus one more calendar quarter. After that, it's two quarters of half credit, then two quarters of 1/4 credit.

Therefore if Tesla reaches only 199,999 deliveries in Q1 (and presumably hits 200,000 in Q2), the full credit is available for Q2 (the remainder of that quarter) and Q3 (the following quarter), i.e. through September 30, 2017. The half credit of $3,750 would then be available for Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 (through March 31, 2019), and the 1/4 credit of $1,875 would be available for Q2-Q3 2019 (through September 30, 2019). Absent any change in law, there is no limit, other than by delivery date, of the number of credit-qualifying vehicles.

 

[Runt8]

I expect the full tax credit to be available through Q3 or Q4 before it is halved.

Clearly this willl depend upon how Tesla chooses to fulfill non-US deliveries.

Highly unlikely the full credit will last beyond the end of Q3. The only realistic options are end of Q2 or end of Q3.

 

[T34ME]

I respect that. But we do have a very solid idea of what S/X sales will be, the real remaining variable is can they ramp up M3 in Q1.

I had a discussion with Customer Service about this very topic a couple of months ago. I was told that Tesla is keeping close track of the 200K domestic sales number. They want to extend the full tax credit as long as possible. I feel certain they will 'slow walk' all deliveries in March if they are close to the 200K number to extend the period to early April and consequently full tax credit to end of September 2018. This strategy will frustrate and anger some March 2018 reservationists but it will make an additional quarters worth VERY happy! If I was given a delivery date of March 2018 (my current estimator says Jan-Mar) and Tesla called me up and said if I voluntarily delayed my delivery until early April, 2018 so they could extend the tax credit phase out in exchange for some Supercharger credit, I would jump on that offer right now!