Poll: Who thinks they'll get the full $7,500 U.S. tax credit?

[Haxster]

Or will it run out before you get your Model 3?

For more details about the tax credit see: Tax Credit Clarification

 

[JeffK]

Tesla has a lot riding on delivering the model 3 on time. My reservation was placed somewhere between 115k to 140K mark. If we take out the non-US orders from that number, and consider that I'll jump ahead when I order all the premium options. I figure for the midwest I'll be in a pretty good position to be likely in the 1st phase out period. This of course assumes that if they are on time that they delay the 200,000th car until the beginning of a quarter. That's the only way the phase 1 credit goes for six full months. The credit lasts for the remainder of that quarter AND a full calendar quarter. Theoretically you could have 200,000 cars plus 6 months worth of deliveries for the full 100% credit.

Depending on how many they can crank out during this time, that could amount to a very large percentage of the US preorders getting a full credit. Assuming no delays and no huge increase in model s/x orders between now and then.

 

[Az_Rael]

I figure I might get a partial credit. I have some advantages (ordered first day, CA resident), but I doubt I will be buying a "P" model 3, and I will be skipping on the air suspension due to long term reliability concerns.

On the S and X, going with coil suspension pushed you back a ways.

 

[Unchangeable]

Not getting a fully optioned out car <42k but I was first day in store reservation on the east coast... So best case I would think 50\50

 

[deonb]

Ordered first day, early in line, prior Tesla owner, West Coast, fully optioned.

I figure... yeah .

 

[Tiberius]

Anyone voting "for sure" or "probably" hasn't been paying attention to the few actual facts about this floating around the forums. And anyone who waited more than a couple hours after online preorders started are Practically guaranteed not to get it.

If the results so far really represent future Model 3 buyers then there are going to be a lot of disappointed people out there. Wonder if this will lead to a lot of cancellations.

 

[ummgood]

I waited in line early in Austin. I was number 106 in line. I plan on getting at least dual motor and upgraded battery. I figure I was around top 15k reservations in the US conservatively. I sure plan on using the full tax credit.

 

[frozenpenguin]

Placed my order around 1pm on 1st day in Chicago. I'm also budgeting $45-50K for the car so I'm fairly confident (hopeful) I'll get the full amount.

 

[Haxster]

Another perspective:

1. When a manufacturer is production constrained, they want to put as many high-margin options in the product they can. This has been Tesla's strategy.

2. But when you're parts constrained, you need to modify 1. by not building cars with parts that you can't get.

So, what high-margin parts might Tesla not be able to get during the early production of the Model 3?
Well, batteries is a likely candidate. Tesla Motors is not the only customer of the Gigafactory. There will be competition for their output.

What could this mean to Model 3 reservation holders?
During a constrained battery production ramp-up, would Tesla rather sell two loaded 45KWh Model 3s or one 90kWh version? And keep in mind that high-margin Model S/Xs would likely get first dibs on any limited initial battery supply.

To those anxious to get their Model 3, the assumption that you will need to order lots of performance and range options may not be the best strategy. It could turn out that the first orders to ship are for highly loaded cars with the SMALLEST batteries.

Time will tell...

 

[Disneyhorse]

I voted "Maybe"... I reserved 3/31 at 4pm in CA. Even the $3750 would be fantastic. With no tax credit, still getting the car but I'll be less tempted by options.

 

[McHoffa]

within the first 10,000 orders or so, and will go highly optioned (hopefully ludicrous if the price is right). The only thing keeping me out of round one is being on the east coast and not a current owner

 

[Gen3Joe]

I put probably.

I was third in line on 3/31 and reserved at 10:03am. I plan to order the performance model but will skip all the luxury items. This atypical configuration may push me back in the line a bit. Hopefully living on the west coast will make up for it.

 

[McHoffa]

I put probably.

I was third in line on 3/31 and reserved at 10:03am. I plan to order the performance model but will skip all the luxury items. This atypical configuration may push me back in the line a bit. Hopefully living on the west coast will make up for it.

I'd say you're definitely, unless they really don't ramp up production.

 

[grashelm]

And anyone who waited more than a couple hours after online preorders started are Practically guaranteed not to get it.

What exactly are you basing this statement on? How many orders were there in the first couple of hours after online orders started? How many of those orders were in the US? Saying they are practically guaranteed not to get it is at best really nothing more than a wild a$$ed guess on your part.

 

[Boourns]

My guess is probably. Ordered in store 3/31, though not til about 5 p.m.; Midwest region; current owner.

 

[MarcCBR]

I voted for sure. Live in California, was about 100th in line at the store and will be budgeting $45k - $50k for the car.

 

[Mkorpal]

Where's the option for it doesn't matter, I'm probably not going to be able to use the whole thing anyway.

 

[2early4flapjacks]

19th in line on the west coast. Probably. Could be wrong though. May have to option down as tax credit depletes.

 

[jsanford]

Not really counting on it while saving up, but hoping for the reduced sales tax in WA. We're also going to talk to the dealer to confirm we can install our home charging system now, since that tax credit expires after 2016 (source: State & Federal Incentives | Plug In America)

 

[melindav]

Not really counting on it while saving up, but hoping for the reduced sales tax in WA. We're also going to talk to the dealer to confirm we can install our home charging system now, since that tax credit expires after 2016 (source: State & Federal Incentives | Plug In America)

Also in Washington, and feel much more unsure about getting in before the sales tax exemption expires than missing out on Federal credit (although I did vote Maybe), but hoping for both I will probably also have the wall charger installed this year. Ideally, I'd rather wait until the 2nd reveal so know for sure what the Model 3's charger will be (dual option?) to see if it make sense to go above 50A, but would like to get the credit this year too.