EVNow
Well-Known Member
Let alone autonomous driving that has never been achieved by humans.well sure, I use those words. Yet, my estimates are a lot better though I am not building a complicated car
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Poll: Will we see the button before the end of the year?
- Thread starter Terminator857
- Start date
Battouttahe77
Member
Silicon Desert
Well-Known Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Dude, I've been here long enough to know who is a fanboy - apparently, unlike you.
People need to step back and get a perspective.
60% now think there is a chance. Optimism is rising.
Silicon Desert
Well-Known Member
another rude one on my ignore list. You missed the point, and went ballistic. I won't see any more of your posts.
We are just having fun here. You can define it as you please. There are other half measures. Could Tesla limit times and days it can be used to discourage complacency? For some people option: what if they only gave it to the top 30% of safest drivers however they choose to define that? Will they do early access program first? What if they limited to 3/4ths of the streets to limit complacency? Lots of curves in the road up ahead.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
How I define the "The Button": POLL: When will "Quantum Leap" FSD be released to the HW3 fleet?
It has to be available to everyone with HW3.
That's not what Elon originally claimed the button would be. He only said that there would be a button to download the "FSD Beta". To me, FSD Beta means whatever L2 city streets beta is being tested by the youtubers, which has an intervention rate of 1 per every couple miles.
However, i think there is a good chance, that the button will not immediately download the beta, but instead just be another version of "Advanced" in the download options.
5 years in October. 59 months right now. I heard the tweet was misspelled, he meant 30-60 months, not 3-6.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I think what we see in FSD Beta videos could drive from Elon's former Bel Air home to SpaceX without disengagements 33% of the time (which was my definition of "Quantum Leap").
The Button could also be something more limited such as improved Autosteer on city streets (i.e. no turns at intersections).
KArnold
Active Member
Any speculation as to this rollout speed, assuming no major issues? 10/week? 100/week?
Since I'm generally in the middle of the pack 8n updates normally, I'm thinking my first hands-on won't be this year.
DanCar
Active Member
The best advice someone gave me when I was new to Elon's predictions was to "take the square of his estimates and halve your expectations". So when he said we'd get a DOWNLOAD button back in March in ~10 days or 2 weeks, I figured instead of 14 days, it would be 196 days (late September) and it wouldn't be a download button, but something less, like a request for download button. I didn't see the Safety Score thing coming, but the other stuff came through pretty much as the Adjusted Elon Predictor Model forecast.
Just ignore his timelines and promises of functionality entirely. Trust him as much as you would trust any other salesperson.
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