POLL: When will "Quantum Leap" FSD be released to the HW3 fleet?

[Daniel in SD]

Testing out the wisdom of crowds.

"Quantum Leap" FSD is defined as the ability to legally drive from Bel Air to SpaceX in Hawthorne without driver intervention on at least a third of attempts. Positive confirmation does not count as an intervention but declining confirmation does.

 

[DanCar]

Thread hi-jacking: Elon said the release will go to careful drivers. Now we know what the driver monitoring system is for.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Thread hi-jacking: Elon said the release will go to careful drivers. Now we know what the driver monitoring system is for.

I would say it doesn't count as a release to the HW3 fleet if it only goes to careful drivers!

I'm honestly having a hard time deciding how to vote on this poll. I almost want to put "never" because I'm not sure if they'll figure out a way to safely release it to all drivers.
Once release in imminent I'll do one about the disengagement rate.

 

[lambodiablo205]

I'm going with Q1 so they can generate that extra FSD revenue for a historically low sales quarter

 

[DanCar]

... I almost want to put "never" because I'm not sure if they'll figure out a way to safely release it to all drivers. ....

You are too optimistic how good it is going to perform. Just think about the mind blowing smart summon. It will be that good.

 

[bdub85]

Just before the holidays

 

[diplomat33]

"Quantum Leap" FSD is defined as the ability to legally drive from Bel Air to SpaceX in Hawthorne without driver intervention on at least a third of attempts. Positive confirmation does not count as an intervention but declining confirmation does.

That is a very low bar for FSD.

 

[diplomat33]

I voted Q2 2021. I hope it happens sooner of course. But we know it will take at least a few weeks/couple of months of testing in beta and then it might need a couple more months to fix bugs. So I figured Q2 2021 was a pretty safe bet.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I'm going with Q1 so they can generate that extra FSD revenue for a historically low sales quarter

They only need to release "autosteer on city streets" to recognize all the revenue for cars sold since April 2020 .
I'm defining the "Quantum Leap" closer to "automatic driving on city streets" which I think was the previous iteration.

That is a very low bar for FSD.

Ok, it has to be able to do it in both directions. I think there's a good chance that the first release will not meet this definition of "Quantum Leap."
After it's released we'll do a poll on what the disengagement rate will be in a year. Remember the claim by optimists is not that the first release will be any good, it's that it will quickly improve.
Though maybe we should have a poll for what the disengagement rate of the first release will be. I think that can wait until release in imminent though.

 

[diplomat33]

Ok, it has to be able to do it in both directions. I think there's a good chance that the first release will not meet this definition of "Quantum Leap."
After it's released we'll do a poll on what the disengagement rate will be in a year. Remember the claim by optimists is not that the first release will be any good, it's that it will quickly improve.
Though maybe we should have a poll for what the disengagement rate of the first release will be. I think that can wait until release in imminent though.

When I get the FSD rewrite, I will happily share my disengagement data to help.

 

[DanCar]

You are too optimistic how good it is going to perform. Just think about the mind blowing smart summon. It will be that good.

There is a reason he is only releasing it to careful and attentive drivers. Everyone else would be complaining it drove them into curbs or worse.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Q4 2020 currently the most popular answer right now. Seems unlikely. Remember Smart Summon, it took many months to perfect and release to everyone.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Well it certainly looks way better than Smart Summon and very likely to achieve the performance criteria of the poll. The only question now is if they get push back from regulators and whether they think the general population of owners will monitor it well. My opinion is that the software makes the car an autonomous test vehicle and therefore subject to those regulations (in the states that have them). Tesla and most people here will argue that it's just driver assistance.
From what I've seen I don't really think the system can be made more "safe" since the problem isn't how well the system automates driving tasks but how well people will monitor it.
It's exciting because I have no idea what's going to happen. I wish I could vote Q4 and never.

 

[mikes_fsd]

You are too optimistic how good it is going to perform. Just think about the mind blowing smart summon. It will be that good.

Some of these are fun to re-read though!
Wonder how it will be like ~ June of next year.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Wonder how it will be like ~ June of next year.

That's the next poll!
Going to wait for wide release though. I'm sure one of the members here will do some sort of scientific analysis.
I'm thinking 100x better than it is today by the end of next year. Then the problem will become much more difficult.

 

[Carnage-]

I've gone for Q2 next year; as that's when I, as a UK resident is likely to get it.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I've gone for Q2 next year; as that's when I, as a UK resident is likely to get it.

Being an American I didn't even consider that there were Teslas in other countries. I only had the US in mind when I created the poll.
I'm pretty sure the answer will be never for Europe.
I'm going to change my vote to never for the US as well. I think that some states will decide this software constitutes autonomous vehicle testing and I doubt Tesla wants to comply with those rules.

 

[boonedocks]

There is a reason he is only releasing it to careful and attentive drivers. Everyone else would be complaining it drove them into curbs or worse.

Still trying to figure out how and why Social Media Influencers are considered “careful and attentive drivers”

 

[Silicon Desert]

Testing out the wisdom of crowds.

"Quantum Leap" FSD is defined as the ability to legally drive from Bel Air to SpaceX in Hawthorne without driver intervention on at least a third of attempts. Positive confirmation does not count as an intervention but declining confirmation does.

Hmmmm, so sounds like from Elon's home to SpaceX.

 

[RLC3]

I wish I could vote Q4 and never.

Never is quite a long time. 30 years ago the cars we have were the stuff of science fiction.

Of course, maybe by 'never', we mean 10 years. And there you have it. 10 years is the new never.