Porsche to build charging network, Tesla compatible

[Jeff N]

As far as I can tell, they don't have any parties, right, left or center, that are claiming that GHG is a fantasy.

Except for the right-wing AfD which is gaining some limited traction as a result of its anti-Muslim immigration stance.

Alternative for Germany - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Gerasimental]

1. The German process is slow to change direction, but once turned it's relentless. They are working it through and they will come up with a good product. If they're talking about it daily, then it is happening.

Absolutely right. It is happening and has been happening in earnest since around the beginning of this year. The kind of volume numbers you hear mentioned around the industry have risen about 10 fold since then, and the tone has gone from speculative to urgent.

A further point is that once they have changed direction, government and regulation will adapt to that and ensure a favourable environment for the new direction. This is happening too.

Aside from the Europeans, some Chinese players are further along than some here think as well.

 

[glhs272]

This is great news. Hopefully this is a sign that one of the majors in the industry (VW group) is actually committing to an electrified future. It seems Tesla on it's own is not big enough to make a dent in world-wide GHG emissions, or rather not quickly enough.
Once the Germans are committed to this we may finally see a breakdown in support for Internal Combustion Engines. Then, hopefully, the dominoes start falling. The likes of Ford, Toyota, and GM better take electrification seriously or cease to exist. Fiat-Chrysler must fire it's CEO immediately or it will be too far behind to ever hope of catching up. We might see a lot of change in 5 years. Were ICE is dominant today, they will become a boutique in the near future (i.e. less than 10 years). Legacy auto is going to have a huge challenge writing off or depreciating their ICE assets quickly enough to stay afloat and stay competitive. I can't help but think that may be "diesel-gate" was a blessing in disguise for VW. Prompting them to act early, while there is still a chance for them when they otherwise would have continued down the ICE path oblivious to what is going on around them.

Anyway, sorry for my ramblings. Just felt like being optimistic.

 

[mspohr]

This is great news. Hopefully this is a sign that one of the majors in the industry (VW group) is actually committing to an electrified future. It seems Tesla on it's own is not big enough to make a dent in world-wide GHG emissions, or rather not quickly enough.
Once the Germans are committed to this we may finally see a breakdown in support for Internal Combustion Engines. Then, hopefully, the dominoes start falling. The likes of Ford, Toyota, and GM better take electrification seriously or cease to exist. Fiat-Chrysler must fire it's CEO immediately or it will be too far behind to ever hope of catching up. We might see a lot of change in 5 years. Were ICE is dominant today, they will become a boutique in the near future (i.e. less than 10 years). Legacy auto is going to have a huge challenge writing off or depreciating their ICE assets quickly enough to stay afloat and stay competitive. I can't help but think that may be "diesel-gate" was a blessing in disguise for VW. Prompting them to act early, while there is still a chance for them when they otherwise would have continued down the ICE path oblivious to what is going on around them.

Anyway, sorry for my ramblings. Just felt like being optimistic.

I agree.
Elon has always asserted that one of his goals was to move existing ICE manufacturers to EVs. They are slow to "get it" but it does look like they are starting to take EVs seriously. I think that the demand for the Model 3 combined with VW killing the diesel car has helped push them to start taking EVs seriously. They still have a long way to go. They have to abandon all of their ICE expertise which will not be easy. They have to develop EV expertise and that will take some time. The time frames always seem to be "five years" to get something on the road. It would be nice if they could move faster but I guess better late than never.
We do need to have lots of EVs from lots of manufacturers to move people away from ICE cars. I know that I will never buy another ICE car and it will be good to have lots of choices for EVs.

 

[sandpiper]

I agree.
Elon has always asserted that one of his goals was to move existing ICE manufacturers to EVs. They are slow to "get it" but it does look like they are starting to take EVs seriously. I think that the demand for the Model 3 combined with VW killing the diesel car has helped push them to start taking EVs seriously. They still have a long way to go. They have to abandon all of their ICE expertise which will not be easy. They have to develop EV expertise and that will take some time. The time frames always seem to be "five years" to get something on the road. It would be nice if they could move faster but I guess better late than never.
We do need to have lots of EVs from lots of manufacturers to move people away from ICE cars. I know that I will never buy another ICE car and it will be good to have lots of choices for EVs.

The development cycle for a brand new vehicle platform is around 4-5 years. They're all started in earnest this year and so we can expect the first models to hit the lot in around 2020. It was less for some of the current compliance cars because they basically bashed a battery and motor into a conventional car, with the expected crud as a result.

 

[Canuck]

I see it another way. There's no doubt electric vehicles are the vehicles of the future. Global warming aside, they just make so much more sense from a mechanical perspective.

The entire world, with Tesla being the only exception, has been slow to respond to these patently obvious facts.

The Germans and others are only coming on board now because they are forced to, and for no other reason at all. The Germans are the masters of the ICE. They built it better than anyone else and they have the top minds in every field when it comes to ICE engines. Do you really expect them to embrace an entirely new mode of transportation with open arms? I don't buy it for a minute. When the price of gas fell, BMW's head of marketing and sales said "There would be some moves toward some bigger-engine vehicles." That speaks volumes to me. What people are quoting here and hailing as the Germans coming on board is all smoke and mirrors to me. Until I see the fire, I don't buy the blowing smoke at all. As far I am concerned, they are only saying what the legislators want to hear, while keeping their fingers crossed behind their back.

I believe the Germans and others are still extremely devoted to the ICE engine and will be as slow as possible in transitioning to electric vehicles and will only makes the transition as forced to by legislation and consumer demand, and for no other reason. If you read the articles, such as the one I linked to, and others, they show absolutely no independent desire to transfer away from ICE (as people here suggest they have) and it makes total sense as to the reason when you examine the cultures of those companies, built so long, and so deeply entrenched, in the ICE engine.

And you've got to love all this talk about Porsche's charging network. I guess it's lost on everyone that Tesla didn't talk about building a charging network. They just built it, much to the pleasant surprise of Tesla owners. Talks is cheap and Porsche knows that.

 

[WannabeOwner]

Were ICE is dominant today, they will become a boutique in the near future (i.e. less than 10 years)

Whilst I wish that were true, as it suits my own personal eco-warrior agenda!, I think it will take a generation at least

If 100% of the vehicles made today were BEV it will still take 10 years to replace [most of] the fleet.

For 100% of new vehicles to be BEVs we need hundreds of Giga-factories making batteries ... if Mr German Automaker decides to build a Giga-factory today then it will be a minimum of 5 years before it is fully built and operating at MAX production

So sadly I think we are decades away from replacing ICE with BEV

 

[glhs272]

I agree that just from a fleet wide perspective, we are still a long way away. From a new car sales perspective was what I was getting at. A very "glass half full" bit of optimism.

Nevertheless, with China already taking BEVs seriously, if Europe were to push for BEVs seriously I think that might force a capitulation for even the North American market. With a variety of electric vehicles springing up by 2020, consumers will be given a choice for the future. They don't really have that choice right now, other than Teslas, which are still too expensive and probably always will be. But by 2020 if consumers embrace the BEV, it will be adapt or die for the ICE industry. Once that signal reaches the broader market, I think it will come surprisingly fast. ICE assets will be written off or dissolved through bankruptcies.

I know there are still legions of petrol heads, that despite all evidence to the contrary, think the internal combustion engine is the superior mode propulsion. I do battle with them even in my own family. These folks will cling to their ICEs until they die. These die-hards are actually quite small percentage of the market. Most just want reliable, affordable transportation to go to their jobs and get there family around. And right now ICE is the only affordable option. Consumers need a real shot at that choice. I am confident that they will make the right choice once it is a real option.

But once that breaking point or tipping point is reached, it will be like musical chairs when the music stops. Those who haven't already laid the groundwork for the transition are doomed. I see the rumblings of this recognition in VW group. BMW is scared out of their wits about what is coming.

I know this could all be BS. I feel optimistic today. But I feel like time is quickly slipping past us, and by 2020 we will have made the choice to have a future. Clinging to our internal combustion engines will be our death as a species and I think we can figure that out by 2020. Not in a buy this or die scenario, but a "same-old" vs. something much better. Even though the implications of the choice will be very much do or die.

And once we make this choice in the early 2020s, our problems won't be solved. But we will finally start doing something about it.

And yes I know that transportation is just a fraction of GHG emissions, but once this nut is cracked it will copied and applied to many of the other problems.

 

[WannabeOwner]

if Europe were to push for BEVs seriously

Norway has good incentives, no doubt some other European countries too. We have had them here in the UK too, but they are already tailing off very fast; we've had a couple of political fracas which have resulted in the "Green Levy" being raided for something else (such as reducing fuel prices ). Price of Crude falling has not helped either - more economic to buy an ICE, plus less Tax-take (i.e. sales tax percentage drops with falling price-at-the-pump)

USA has sorted out its balance of payments with Middle East (and reduced the chance of needing to go to war etc) with fracking et al. We could do lots by being more green (better house insulation = less winter heating fuel imports, yet even for new-build the regulations are pathetic, not to mention changing the ICE fleet to BEV), so from where I sit I think that UK is being lily-livered - pity; lost opportunity.

In the UK we now look at land based wind turbines as being an eyesore, so rather than telling people "it has to happen" we have abandoned guaranteed [land based wind farm generation] prices - so no one is installing any, and anyone trying to has a huge uphill battle with the planning authority, and presumably UK is falling behind as a world expert. (The UK has something like 70% of Europe's wind ...). So we are installing sea-based instead. Much more expensive, harder to maintain, and when the fat cable comes ashore from one of those massive farms the march of pylons across the countryside will truly be an eyesore!

And now we've done a deal with French and Chinese [money] to build a massive Nuclear Power Plant and guaranteed prices for 20 or 30 years which are 2x the current prices ... what a crackingly good deal that is!! the Current Account looks great, but our grandchildren will curse us with the financial burden we are bestowing on them.

My bloody dog could do a better job of running the country than those we have elected ... as the saying goes: "Whoever you vote for the government always gets in" ...

 

[RogerHScott]

And yes I know that transportation is just a fraction of GHG emissions

As someone who lives in coal-fired electricity land, allow me to point out that even adoption of EVs -- by itself -- doesn't necessarily
move the needle much on GHGs. If you broaden that skepticism to all fossil-fuel-powered electricity generation -- as you really
should -- the hope dims significantly further.

 

[RogerHScott]

The UK has something like 70% of Europe's wind ...

And only 62% of that is inside the House of Parliament!

 

[WannabeOwner]

And only 62% of that is inside the House of Parliament!

Drat! No chance of perpetual-motion then?!!

 

[mspohr]

As someone who lives in coal-fired electricity land, allow me to point out that even adoption of EVs -- by itself -- doesn't necessarily
move the needle much on GHGs. If you broaden that skepticism to all fossil-fuel-powered electricity generation -- as you really
should -- the hope dims significantly further.

Fossil fuel electricity is about 65% of total nationally. The nice thing about EVs is that they get cleaner as the electricity source gets cleaner. Coal is dying. Renewables are growing rapidly.

 

[ecarfan]

The nice thing about EVs is that they get cleaner as the electricity source gets cleaner.

This is a key point that much of the public, and many journalists, fail to understand.

And ICE car is restricted to one polluting fuel type throughout its existence. It will always be a source of pollution and in fact after many years will likely produce slightly more pollution than when it was new due to decreased efficiency of its catalytic converter and other pollution control systems.

In contrast, an EV automatically becomes cleaner as the energy sources that power the grid become cleaner. That is happening in many developed countries and even in some less developed countries (e.g. Costa Rica). It can also happen when an EV owner adds solar power to their home, as I did two months ago, or when an EV owner switches electric power providers to a "greener" alternative.

Most of the time when I point this out to someone when talking about EVs, their eyes widen and its clear they had never thought about it before. Sometimes there is no reaction and I realize I am probably talking to someone whose mind is closed to facts and new information.

 

[RogerHScott]

My point is just that switching to an EV is just doubling down on the bet that the electric power grid will, itself, reduce GHGs.
As with any doubling down, if you win the bet you win bigger. But if you don't...

 

[Jeff N]

As someone who lives in coal-fired electricity land, allow me to point out that even adoption of EVs -- by itself -- doesn't necessarily
move the needle much on GHGs. If you broaden that skepticism to all fossil-fuel-powered electricity generation -- as you really
should -- the hope dims significantly further.

However, even today in coal-heavy generating regions like Michigan and the US mid-west the Bolt EV emits CO2 equivalent to a 44 mpg gasoline car, according to the EPA's fueleconomy.gov. US national average electricity would emit the same as a 63 mpg gasoline ICE. Using California electricity the Bolt EV is equivalent to getting over 90 mpg.

Presumably the TM3 should be the same or better.

 

[mspohr]

My point is just that switching to an EV is just doubling down on the bet that the electric power grid will, itself, reduce GHGs.
As with any doubling down, if you win the bet you win bigger. But if you don't...

There is a strong and growing trend towards a cleaner grid. Fossil fuels are declining and renewables increasing. Why lock yourself into a fossil fuel car when you can buy an EV and benefit from steadily improving renewables?
This bet is a sure thing. You can also tilt the odds by installing solar then you can be sure to have clean electricity.

 

[TexasEV]

My point is just that switching to an EV is just doubling down on the bet that the electric power grid will, itself, reduce GHGs.
As with any doubling down, if you win the bet you win bigger. But if you don't...

Lots of reasons some of us prefer EV to ICE that have nothing to do with greenhouse gases. Geopolitical reasons, real pollution in cities (not CO2) reasons, etc.

 

[RogerHScott]

Lots of reasons some of us prefer EV to ICE that have nothing to do with greenhouse gases. Geopolitical reasons, real pollution in cities (not CO2) reasons, etc.

Sure, there are lots of reasons to like/prefer EVs strictly on their own merits. Although I care a lot about the greenness considerations,
they were not primary in my choice of a Tesla. I'm curious about the geopolitical reasons that are not functionally equivalent to GHG
concerns -- what would those be?

 

[RogerHScott]

This bet [that the electric power grid will, itself, reduce GHGs] is a sure thing.

I'd agree that it doing so eventually is a sure thing, but the bet that it will do so soon enough to head off climate change disaster
is anything but a sure thing.