Possible reservation number hint on My Tesla

[Winston Wolf]

While interesting and apparently meaningful (since Tesla took it upon themselves to pull it from the source code), it probably tells us very little on delivery order. For instance, those in Asia and Europe probably have lower numbers than those in the US since their stores opened well before US stores did, but as we all know US deliveries will start first. So the reservation ID is just your sequential number of when you ordered relative to everyone else...not the priority order for delivery. I'm going to keep hoping for a Spring '18 delivery here in the midwest US. What an awesome birthday present to myself

 

[zenmaster]

Another data point: (I checked the source code page yesterday before the ID numbers were made invisible.)

Two reservations placed on same transaction in store 3/31 about 10:12 am Pacific (13:12 EST) in Southern Calif, about # 30 in line when store opened.
Credit card was charged almost immediately.
Email took until 2:38 am the next morning to arrive.

Numbers are both 500xxx and are three digits apart.

From reading comments on this thread, I'm guessing my relatively high numbers are because a backup server was handling some orders at the 10 am west coast crunch time. There must have been a rush of order activity right at that moment, considering that west coast is such an EV hot spot.

This would be very unlikely. Check the thread again.

 

[MassModel3]

This would be very unlikely. Check the thread again.

Oh give him a clue... It's a LOOOOOONG thread!

 

[Sharkbait]

Not so. I ordered two and start with 497xxx

A non-owner, I ordered one only - 497XXX.

 

[zenmaster]

Oh give him a clue... It's a LOOOOOONG thread!

If most of the provided multiple reservation samples are responsible for higher numbers, it would be an amazing coincidence that each of these were also due to backup server processing.

 

[Bokonon]

Another data point: (I checked the source code page yesterday before the ID numbers were made invisible.)

Numbers are both 500xxx and are three digits apart.

From reading comments on this thread, I'm guessing my relatively high numbers are because a backup server was handling some orders at the 10 am west coast crunch time. There must have been a rush of order activity right at that moment, considering that west coast is such an EV hot spot.

Exactly.

Granted, I harbor a heavy bias in favor of Occam's Razor, but I do think that the "backup server" theory (in its simplicity) explains most of the inconsistent/outlier observations made this thread with regard to what is simply a sequence number. No black magic, no hidden agenda, no secret-decoder-ring meaning... just a reflection of the fact that (for whatever underlying technical reason) one person recording two reservations simultaneously was more likely to "overflow" the primary server's capacity than a steady drip-drip-drip of individual reservations spaced apart.

Does this mean that two simultaneous reservations still could have been fulfilled within capacity and received a 3XXXXX number? Yup.
Does this mean that an individual reservation still could have overflowed capacity and received a 500XXX? Of course.
Does this mean that two simultaneous reservations could have both overflowed capacity and received a 500XXX? You betcha[tm].

I know, I know... it's boring, it may not have deserved a 28-page thread pondering the essence of its being, and (most alarming of all) the act of deciphering its meaning did not magically bump our delivery dates up to January 2017 and ensure that we all receive the tax credit. But it was a fun exercise nevertheless.

 

[mond81]

Wow, this thread blew up...so aside from graphs, the trends seems to be:

1. Those of us ordering in Europe all ended up at 36XXXX? Right? Are there any data points from Australia or elsewhere that got in earlier than 3/31 Morning EU time?
2. Those ordering 2 cars do end up around 500XXX...weird.

My guess is they'll use this TOGETHER with your delivery location and status as a previous owner or employee to determine delivery dates, but the fact that the location/status didn't seem to affect the rez ID makes it more complicated I suppose. But again it's hard to please everyone - should an owner who orders today skip ahead of a non-owner who lined up on 3/31?

 

[Trips]

So the reservation ID is just your sequential number of when you ordered relative to everyone else...not the priority order for delivery. I'm going to keep hoping for a Spring '18 delivery here in the midwest US. What an awesome birthday present to myself

US Starting Numbers
Employee: 350XXX
East of US: 358XXX ?
East Coast: 370XXX
Central: 375XXX
Mountain: 379XXX
West Coast: 384XXX
Online: 412XXX

Total Orders Based on 42,000 orders during US instore (412 - 370 = 42k) (I used the %'s below)
East Coast - 15,540
Central - 5,040
Mountain - 2,520
West Coast - 10,500 (Seems low)
Rest Of World - 8,400

Based on 191 responses during US instore hours.
East Coast - 70 (37%)
Central - 23 (12%)
Mountain - 12 (6%)
West Coast - 48 (25%)
Rest Of World - 38 (20%)

 

[Trips]

Being Midwest I am now figuring the following.

Employees: 10,000
Current Owners: 6,000 (6% of 100k)
West Coast: 10,500
Mountain: 2,520
Central: 500
Total in front: 29,520 (Non Owner #500 in the Midwest)

Unknowns:

• 2x orders that got a higher number
  
• # of Employees that can still jump in front (Think they have about 19k total employees right now)
• Current Owner percentage going higher and exactly how many current US owners are out there.
• I counted East Coast current owners getting before me.
  
• Order of delivery. Will someone online in the West Coast get before an in-store Midwest

Rebuttals?

 

[TaoJones]

... - should an owner who orders today skip ahead of a non-owner who lined up on 3/31?

I don't know about "should", but as I understand it, yes.

1. Employees and direct family members
2. Owners - California
3. Non-owners California
4. Owners - West Coast
5. Non-owners - West Coast

And then the rest of the continent eastward by region. Owners first then non-owners per region.

So if you buy a Tesla between now and the time your area is selected for Design Studio access, you'll get a Model 3 in your region before non-owners in your region.

Simply put:

Geographic proximity
Owner/non-owner

Further drill-down:

Loaded versus non-loaded - within each regional group, presumably owners w fully optioned get theirs before owners with base models. Then fully-optioned non-owners followed by base model owners. Rinse and repeat around the globe.

 

[Bruin1996]

It seems like to me that people who placed reservations for 2 Tesla Model 3's in-store have higher reservation numbers (like 499XXX and more) than others who placed reservations for just 1 Model 3. My 2 reservation ID's were 505XXX at 3/31 11 am-ish in-store West Coast reservation. Seems like the number is not affected by ownership status. I hope that people who reserved 2 Model 3's are't pushed behind single Model 3 reservers in line.

 

[Lump]

Quickest delivery's & priority goes to owners on the west cost that stood in line (excluding employees)...just don't reserve 2...typical Tesla

Both of mine 499XXX

Reserving your Model 3

 

[VoidVisionary]

Portland, Oregon (USA west coast) In-store
10:37 AM
386XXX

 

[EldestOyster]

The reservation ID is indicative of when your order was added to the database. You could use this information to deduce when you ordered, but presumably, you know when you ordered. So, the res ID is a somewhat less useful datum than something you already know.

The 497 - 505 range for those who reserved two (or more!) cars appears to be a side effect. Seems they split out a separate database and went through those to make sure nothing funny was going on. The honest orders were then re-added.

As far as priorities, the first cars go to those board of directors members who wrote checks at the meeting

 

[Sharkbait]

As far as priorities, the first cars go to those board of directors members who wrote checks at the meeting

I image EM will be QC'ing these cars personally.... I'll happily wait down the road a bit for them to iron out any kinks.

 

[Autolycus]

I'll add my data point. I ordered in store on the east coast about 6PM EDT on 3/31. My reservation_id was in the 400000-405000 range, but I didn't write it down and don't remember it exactly. I got the confirmation email on 4/1 at 6:34pm, so over 24 hours after placing the reservation.

I think it's pretty clear that this is just the database id for all "reservations" of all types. It's sequential with maybe, but doubtfully, some exceptions. At best it is useful for determining how many people placed a reservation in what timeframe. For an individual, it might give you some suggestion of how many people ordered ahead of you. It won't say anything about what priority you may or may not be given.

I wouldn't be surprised if the issue with the 2x reservations is that there are actually 2 reservation id's for those orders (1 per car), and the webpage's database query returned the 2nd of the 2, which was probably processed later in the day or possibly even on a later day. 490-500 range was probably late that night. They may have had a batch process run overnight to generate the 2nd reservation entry.

I also imagine the reservation database entries have some additional information like a time stamp but not enough to complete the entire ordering/delivery process. The actual shipment/delivery order will not be based on just that particular table and most definitely not just on the reservation id. They will probably do batches of orders and will prioritize within those batches based on information they have in other tables, things like employee rosters, current owners, etc. It would be silly of them to have that information in the reservation table. The only personal info they should have in that is your MyTesla account ID or equivalent single identifier like email address.

 

[EVNow]

I don't know about "should", but as I understand it, yes.

Tesla has only stated the parameters that go into preference in delivery. How they interact has not been explained. I had tweeted Elon with this specific question - and he didn't answer.

All else being equal - we know owners get preference over non-owners. But do they get preference even if they ordered much later, we just don't know.

 

[03DSG]

They haven't built the car yet. Maybe we are premature.

 

[FlatSix911]

Interesting analysis ... glad that I ordered on Day-1 in California.

US Starting Numbers
Employee: 350XXX
East of US: 358XXX ?
East Coast: 370XXX
Central: 375XXX
Mountain: 379XXX
West Coast: 384XXX
Online: 412XXX

Total Orders Based on 42,000 orders during US instore (412 - 370 = 42k) (I used the %'s below)
East Coast - 15,540
Central - 5,040
Mountain - 2,520
West Coast - 10,500 (Seems low)
Rest Of World - 8,400

Based on 191 responses during US instore hours.
East Coast - 70 (37%)
Central - 23 (12%)
Mountain - 12 (6%)
West Coast - 48 (25%)
Rest Of World - 38 (20%)

 

[houdini]

Wow, this thread blew up...so aside from graphs, the trends seems to be:

1. Those of us ordering in Europe all ended up at 36XXXX? Right? Are there any data points from Australia or elsewhere that got in earlier than 3/31 Morning EU time?
2. Those ordering 2 cars do end up around 500XXX...weird.

My guess is they'll use this TOGETHER with your delivery location and status as a previous owner or employee to determine delivery dates, but the fact that the location/status didn't seem to affect the rez ID makes it more complicated I suppose. But again it's hard to please everyone - should an owner who orders today skip ahead of a non-owner who lined up on 3/31?

I did; as in get in earlier than EU time and mine is 36XXXX.