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Powerwall 3 Roadmap - 3 Phase Coming!

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For anyone interested in Powerwall 3, it's finally confirmed by Tesla that they are using LFP cells, along with a bit more information, although still oriented for the US market.

 
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The ability to do expand using units without the duplicating the electronics is excellent. Cheaper

1Pw3 + 3 DC expansions = 11kW/54kWh
For most people this will be about right

Ideal for me is 2x (1PW3 + 3 DC expansions)

Now for 3phase.
 
The ability to do expand using units without the duplicating the electronics is excellent. Cheaper
However, I think I read somewhere, that they will only be US$1000 cheaper.

That seems a bit mean if they are excluding a very potent inverter (11.5kW) and 6x MPPT solar controllers. Other manufacturers have been doing modular battery pack expansion units for quite some time and might look quite a lot more attractive when/if we get PW3 and pricing information in Aust.
 
1Pw3 + 3 DC expansions = 11kW/54kWh
For most people this will be about right

🤔 TL;DR: you can’t ignore the cost of that… it’s a relevant factor.



A few years ago I did a horribly complex spreadsheeting exercise to do a “what if” analysis of having different battery sizes. This analysis used my actual historical 5-minute energy flows (solar generation, household consumption) to redirect the energy flows as if I had a smaller or larger battery - and see what happens.

I did this as an economic cost/benefit analysis, assuming a base cost for a PW2 with 0 kWh (i.e. the cost of the electronics in it, gateway and the enclosure) plus additional $/kWh for battery capacity. How much extra grid usage did more (or less) battery capacity displace, hence what were the resultant grid costs?

The results were unexpected. It showed that the economic optimum (for me) was a battery of about 7kWh - i.e. half a PW2. Below that the grid draw started to increase a lot and the battery provided less and less benefit as it did not take much to fully charge it, and equally it didn’t take much to fully discharge it.

Above 7 kWh, the extra capacity was used less and less often, and because it has a fixed cost per kWh, it became increasingly dilutive in terms of ROI.

Adding additional capacity above 1xPW2 was economic insanity. I modelled up to adding 100xPW2. It really was a case of rapidly diminishing returns, chasing an increasingly long tail of solar generation / consumption edge cases, with quite expensive capacity installed that was hardly ever charged or discharged.

People with larger solar arrays and higher consumption would have an economic optimum larger than 7 kWh, but given how long the ‘statistical tail’ is, I posit that even in that situation it wouldn’t take much extra capacity to optimise the ROI.
 
It showed that the economic optimum (for me) was a battery of about 7kWh - i.e. half a PW2
I'm thinking that ideally (particularly for NMC chemistry), you probably only want to plan to use half your PW capacity for daily cycling - for longevity of the battery. Some days you might use more or less depending on insolation.

However, that further muddies your spreadsheet: Paying for 14kWh (13.5), but designing the system to only cycle 7kWh of it (on average).

If PW3 is really LFP then larger cycles are probably less of a cycle degradation issue.
 
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The results were unexpected. It showed that the economic optimum (for me) was a battery of about 7kWh - i.e. half a PW2. Below that the grid draw started to increase a lot and the battery provided less and less benefit as it did not take much to fully charge it, and equally it didn’t take much to fully discharge it.
How sensitive is it to the grid price you face?
 
How sensitive is it to the grid price you face?

Increased grid prices reduce the payback time of the battery, but has only a minor effect on how big the optimum battery needs to be (although I didn’t model that bit extensively). The bigger driver is household consumption - how much grid draw is avoided by having a bigger battery.
 
The bigger driver is household consumption
For me it's about grid draw is 75kWh/day in winter and 16,000 kWh last calendar. The rest is solar.
We export 24,000 kWh per year.

We are progressively attempting to reduce energy use by making the house better insulated but that's a big job. I suspect sinking $$$ into this first is better than getting a ginormous battery.
 
It's 32c export on the Vic wholesale market most of tonight
An instantaneous spot price cannot be used to calculate the average cost per warranted kWh over the warranted life of a battery.

I would not be exporting into the grid in the evenings as this is the period where we will use the battery (if we had one)
Additionally a spot price type electricity plan is really a gimmick to me because the last thing I want to do is to fiddle with my electricity use to chase/save a dollar. I have other more productive things to do than to keep one eye on electricity spot prices and our household schedules and lifestyles is not tied to electricity spot prices. Its not available in my area in any case so its a moot point
 
For me it's about grid draw is 75kWh/day in winter and 16,000 kWh last calendar. The rest is solar.
We export 24,000 kWh per year.

Hooley dooley that is a lot of electricity. Are you into hydroponics or something 🤣

Over the past 12 months we’ve used 6.45 MWh from the grid (we have 2 x EVs) or 17.6 kWh/day, and solar export was 1.27 MWh total.

We are progressively attempting to reduce energy use by making the house better insulated but that's a big job. I suspect sinking $$$ into this first is better than getting a ginormous battery.

We did that at the same time as getting solar + battery. We replaced every single window and sliding door in the house with double glazing. A total of 38 windows and doors. It wasn’t cheap (cost more than the solar plus battery) but it’s made a massive difference to interior comfort. It’s hard to say how much saving we get from using the AC less, but we are under the flight path, so got big noise reduction benefits as well.
 
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"I have other more productive things to do than to keep one eye on electricity spot prices"

Luckily it's automated buy/sell throughout the day for you. Basically when it gets really cheap or negative it can buy in and then times it's sales to when it's high (it does go into the dollar per kw, esp in summer).

But yeah I figure the Powerwall 2 was installed in 2017 when it was only $10k installed so it's done well in that time. Sadly we've just sold our place so at the new one i'll get two Powerwalls, hopefully Powerwall 3's. With wholesale power prices the way they are and more solar coming into the market there isn't really a need to go too large of a PV install at the house, it's better to arbitrage the wholesale prices, especially given that solar pv output prices on the retail grid are going to keep going down.