Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[nwdiver]

Maybe given the relatively long time scale of these changes to the grid, people could reasonably adapt to these changes and if things got too imbalanced then utility scale storage could be strategically implemented to take the place of the most expensive fossil generators regularly standing by.

That point can't be emphasized enough... no matter which path we take... the transition away from fossil fuels is going to take decades. Even if we had enough capital to rapidly expand our nuclear fleet we don't have enough skilled construction workers and operators. The global production capacity for Gen III nuclear pressure vessels is 4 per year.

Meanwhile we can keep rapidly displacing fossil fuel CONSUMPTION not necessary CAPACITY with solar and wind at a fairly decent clip before storage is beneficial. Storage is undoubtedly the most difficult and expensive part of fully displacing fossil fuels but the fact it's years away does make it cheaper. This isn't about procrastination... it's about math. Not only is storage getting cheaper but $1 today is more valuable than $1 tomorrow. Economically it simply makes more sense to focus on displacing fossil fuel CONSUMPTION today even if we have to invest in more fossil fuel CAPACITY in the short term. As solar and wind reach higher levels of penetration this will create enough arbitrage between peak and off-peak that it will make sense to start investing in storage. So far it's usually cheaper to handle solar and wind curtailment with increased transmission capacity.

 

[Cyberax]

The global production capacity for Gen III nuclear pressure vessels is 4 per year.

Sure. But that's only for the US, which has fallen by wayside.

 

[ggies07]

I thought this was a great article. We need to be proactive at this transition....

One Year of Coal CEO Pay Could Retrain Every US Miner to Work in the Solar Industry

 

[ReddyLeaf]

These numbers are downright deceptive. The duty factor for non-offshore wind is around 20%, solar duty factor is usually around the same number. So divide your figures by five: 3.6GW of wind power installed and 10GW of solar.

I beg to differ, the numbers are not at all deceptive. Yes, I did use GWH for EVs and GW for capacity of solar/wind. My bad. Everyone who knows anything about power knows that Capacity Factors for renewables (as well as all types of power) are not 100%. Better numbers (GWH only) were provided in the very next post by nwdiver, who I thanked, so I didn't feel the need to add anything to the discussion. Your statement above is very wrong, and "downright deceptive." Wind power is typically around 30% CF and increasing as reported here: Electricity Monthly Update - Energy Information Administration

But yes, the overall situation is not very favorable for nukes (in the US). But this paralysis is mostly self-inflicted.

That was my point, so we definitely agree.

 

[Bangor Bob]

The global production capacity for Gen III nuclear pressure vessels is 4 per year.

So it's very important that you don't drop them.

 

[adiggs]

Can I get a refund on this? I have my receipt....

No - no problems. I just decided that I don't want it anymore.

 

[nwdiver]

Now there's science supporting the idea that nuclear power actually hinders progress toward a cleaner future...

'Pro-nuclear countries slowest to make progress on climate targets'

 

[RubberToe]

Nice article by the ARES (Advanced Rail Energy Storage) company delving into an NREL study looking at how much energy storage would be required for California to get to 50% solar power. A bit OT, but they touch on a lot of what is being discussed here:

How Much Energy Storage Would Be Needed for California to Reach 50 Percent Solar? - Ares North America

Also, ARES itself is starting construction in 2017 of a commercial scale storage project in the Nevada desert:

Electricity and Power Storage - ARES Nevada - Ares North America

Scaleable, efficient, low environmental footprint, no water usage, seems like an idea worth pursuing.

RT

 

[ReddyLeaf]

.....So, not to be a naysayer, but how does NEW nuclear compete when an additional 100 GW of renewables will be added in the time it takes to build a single reactor? How does NEW nuclear compete when fully paid for OLD reactors are being shutdown? As much as I like nuclear (I live within 20 mi of ENW-WPPSS) for the CO2-free emissions, I don't see the industry moving as quickly as the renewable industry. Right now it's a race and renewables are moving much faster.....

I don't like to double post, but this was the response from our newest nuclear plant:
Nuclear power
Transformer fire forces TVA to shut down Unit 2 reactor indefinitely

 

[raysspl]

Yep, I believe it.

 

[brucet999]

That said, I realize you've been following this thread closely so I assume you recognize that I'm pretty damned skeptical that the industry can be trusted to clean up after itself, despite these "trust funds". I bet that there will be many, large taxpayer bills somewhere in the decommissioning and waste cleanup process. *NOT* even including the existing bills, e.g., nuclear waste depository.

Alan

We rate payers in SoCal are paying big time for San Onofre's nuke blunders. They re-fitted the plant with untested titanium heat exchanger tubes that very soon cracked and rendered the whole mess unsalvageable. Bad news for the investors, you say? Nope, they bought off the head of the regulatory body so that the largest portion of the shutdown cost is now being foisted off on us ratepayers.

 

[McRat]

We rate payers in SoCal are paying big time for San Onofre's nuke blunders. They re-fitted the plant with untested titanium heat exchanger tubes that very soon cracked and rendered the whole mess unsalvageable. Bad news for the investors, you say? Nope, they bought off the head of the regulatory body so that the largest portion of the shutdown cost is now being foisted off on us ratepayers.

Since the US lacks modern experience with nuclear technology, Edison had to use Mitsubishi for the heat exchangers.

At the time, everybody thought the Japanese were very safe with their designs as they have far more experience with nuclear power than Americans.

But concerning our state bureaucracy being corrupt and inept? We want our government that way. And now, it is so ingrained into our system that removing it is perhaps impossible now. We would have to dissolve the entire state government and start from scratch. This is one of the reasons you hear of the California government in an uproar today. Not that we pay janitors over $100k a year, but because we will soon be asked to be held accountable for the tax dollars we spend. And that's not going to happen without a death match.

 

[lklundin]

Wind power is typically around 30% CF and increasing

Yes, the 1 GW land based Fosen Wind farm under construction in Norway is looking at a 39 % Capacity Factor (and has already sold 1/3 of its projected production), while the German wind farm Veja Mate which is 100 km out to sea is above 45 %.

Also, regarding the capacity factor of wind turbines it is important to realize that numerical weather prediction can provide accurate estimates of the actual electricity production several days in advance, which is all you need on the energy markets.

 

[nwdiver]

Also, regarding the capacity factor of wind turbines it is important to realize that numerical weather prediction can provide accurate estimates of the actual electricity production several days in advance, which is all you need on the energy markets.

Yep... it's become an incredibly accurate science... they can predict wind generation to within <5% a week out incredibly accurately...

 

[lklundin]

Yep... it's become an incredibly accurate science... they can predict wind generation to within <5% a week out incredibly accurately...

One company that delivers weather forecasts to the power industry has a web-page with free access to their forecasts - centered on Germany:

WEPROG Web App

 

[Pollux]

I have started to see articles about utility solar becoming more economical than "peaker" gas plants. In one example, I think it's in Southern California with the utility that had the huge natural gas leak for months, they wound up constructing a solar+battery array that was cheaper than the peaker they could have built. Apologies for errors in the foregoing; I'm relying on memory rather than backtracking to find the sources.

But if true... wow!

Alan

 

[brucet999]

I have started to see articles about utility solar becoming more economical than "peaker" gas plants. In one example, I think it's in Southern California with the utility that had the huge natural gas leak for months, they wound up constructing a solar+battery array that was cheaper than the peaker they could have built. Apologies for errors in the foregoing; I'm relying on memory rather than backtracking to find the sources.

But if true... wow!

Alan

Two articles about that:
Tesla quietly brings online its massive – biggest in the world – 80 MWh Powerpack station with Southern California Edison
Tesla CTO: our energy storage is growing as fast as we can humanly scale it [Gallery of new Powerpack station]

 

[Pollux]

@brucet999,

Thank you for the links!

I'm very curious as to what is being replaced and for how long. From the second article:

Southern California Edison commissioned three similar projects – one by Tesla, one by Altagas with Samsung SDI batteries and another by AES – in order to compensate after the shutdown of the Aliso Canyon natural gas reservoir, which was the source for the power plants in the region, following the catastrophic rupture in 2015 that led California Governor Jerry Brown to issue a state of emergency.

Do you happen to know whether that natural gas reservoir has been restored to operation? The power plants that it was supplying... were they peakers or regular base load generators? Have any or all of those power plants been retired as the result of deploying this massive battery farm?

Thanks!

Alan

 

[miimura]

The battery storage plants were ordered because the natural gas network could not support the winter peak gas usage of both household and commercial natural gas central heating and natural gas peaker plant electrical generation while Aliso Canyon was closed. The Tesla site is actually adjacent to a natural gas peaker plant to leverage its large grid connection. I don't think Aliso Canyon will be restored for quite some time.

 

[brucet999]

@brucet999,

Thank you for the links!

I'm very curious as to what is being replaced and for how long. From the second article:



Do you happen to know whether that natural gas reservoir has been restored to operation? The power plants that it was supplying... were they peakers or regular base load generators? Have any or all of those power plants been retired as the result of deploying this massive battery farm?

Thanks!

Alan

Southern California Gas Co's Aliso Canyon underground storage was/is not connected to any particular user. Its purpose was to store huge quantities of gas underground in depleted wells as a buffer for system-wide peak usage periods that would exceed capacity of incoming supply pipelines, some from as far away as Texas. In practice, of course, certain users are limited when capacity is in danger of being exceeded, and that would likely include peaker gas turbine generating plants.

Utilities commission is deciding now about approval for coming back online. About 30% of old wells in that field have been tested so far principally because they are of similar age to the one that leaked catastrophically. The holdup at present is more political than technical, since public hysteria is slow to subside even after technical problems have been solved.