Yes. Not replacing every car in three years. Just all new cars. It won't be the end of the world if new vehicle sales take a hit for a few years or if CA has to settle for importing 'used' MY 2024, 23, 22 vehicles for a few years. That barely qualifies as a mild inconvenience. We need to stop playing games. Norway is already >80% EV sales. Most people are making the poor choice of new ICE because it's available and they're lazy. People are going to be lazy... so stop making it available.
Norway has the population of my small state, which is a speck compared to California.
I do wonder what would happen if, in your scenario, California absorbed all the new EVs that could be produced, since even that wouldn't be enough in three years ramp-up time. No EVs for the rest of us I guess!
Nevertheless, my opinion, that your three year deadline is
politically impossible, remains unchanged.
Now, imagine a portion of those EVs also used for V2G/grid stabilization/power during peak. No more curtailing of renewable production, meaning more electricity available overall!
Yes, I saw that when it was posted earlier and found it surprisingly unpersuasive, given that I'm inclined to support such things. Too many unanswered questions for me.
Maybe it's just me, but I find V2G a bit unrealistic. My car battery is already significantly degraded (20%+) and I'm supposed to give it extra cycles for V2G? I suppose if the financial incentives were high enough, but putting extra wear and tear on a $15k battery asks a lot of the EV owner, IMHO.
LFP is the answer. The patent on the chemistry recently expired, so anyone can make their own and many of the major battery suppliers have been growing out factories like crazy. 2035 is over 13 years away. Even mining can be expanded in time on that timeline.
??? My post was about nwdiver's proposal that new ICE vehicle sales be banned by
~2025, not the current law making the shift by 2035. That's three years. BIG difference!
I agree that LFP seems as if it might be a mass market solution to the use of problematic elements, such as cobalt, at least until some better battery technology comes along. LFP has some drawbacks, however.