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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

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Combined cycle NG plant are over 50% thermally efficient, where coal is 40% thermally efficient; and that is why NG is the prevalent electric plant. Coal is still here 7 years latter and oil price is thru the roof…. Don’t quit your day job, as a fortune teller your not good!
Hopefully we will be building more at Atom splitting power plants.

Yep; The crystal ball over at bloomberg failed to predict a supply chain scrambling pandemic that cratered renewable installs and a land war in eastern Europe that shutdown gas supplies.

But why on Earth would any free market participant pay $15B for 1GW and ~8TWh/yr of nuclear when you can get the same power and annual clean energy from 1GW of gas and 3GW of renewables for less than $4B?
 
Yep; The crystal ball over at bloomberg failed to predict a supply chain scrambling pandemic that cratered renewable installs and a land war in eastern Europe that shutdown gas supplies.

But why on Earth would any free market participant pay $15B for 1GW and ~8TWh/yr of nuclear when you can get the same power and annual clean energy from 1GW of gas and 3GW of renewables for less than $4B?

As Dr Evil would say, why make one trillion when you can make one billion. 😂
 
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Yep; The crystal ball over at bloomberg failed to predict a supply chain scrambling pandemic that cratered renewable installs and a land war in eastern Europe that shutdown gas supplies.
And unfavorable policies in the United States 🇺🇸
Your off by a factor of three or four on the quantity of renewables. Dont get me wrong, I like renewables. You just need a lot more, and then we need something to do with renewables rather then just throttling renewables. Perhaps storage, hydrogen, or something else.
 
And unfavorable policies in the United States 🇺🇸
Your off by a factor of three or four on the quantity of renewables. Dont get me wrong, I like renewables. You just need a lot more, and then we need something to do with renewables rather then just throttling renewables. Perhaps storage, hydrogen, or something else.

We need at least V1G infrastructure so that during periods of excess, the energy can be put into EVs and the EVs in turn will not need to charge overnight when renewable production is lower.
 
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And unfavorable policies in the United States 🇺🇸
Your off by a factor of three or four on the quantity of renewables. Dont get me wrong, I like renewables. You just need a lot more, and then we need something to do with renewables rather then just throttling renewables. Perhaps storage, hydrogen, or something else.

What policies? As I've pointed out before nuclear power is fundamentally flawed. Even if the heat source was free it's still gonna cost >$40/MWh to convert that heat into electricity. Why on Earth would you choose to spend $40 to convert 3 MWhs of fission heat into 1 MWh of electricity when you can just get a MWh from wind or photons for ~$20?

We could abolish the NRC and just live with a reactor meltdown every 10 years and nuclear power would STILL be more expensive per kWh than renewables.

When it makes fiscal sense to do something other than throttle renewables then something other than throttling renewables will happen. If it costs $40M to reduce 'throttling' by 10GWh per year with storage, hydrogen or something else but you can increase net wind generation by 40GWh per year even after throttling losses..... wouldn't.... wouldn't you just add more wind? 40 > 10. I expect curtailment to increase significantly as the cost of solar and wind keeps dropping faster than storage, hydrogen or anything else (Except V1G which is effectively free :) )

Economics matters. That's why nuclear has no future and that's why we keep curtailing renewables. Because Economics matters.
 
OilPrice.com: Carbon Recycling Breakthrough Coverts 100% Of CO2 Into Ethylene.
Carbon Recycling Breakthrough Coverts 100% Of CO2 Into Ethylene | OilPrice.com

Well, this is definitely better than trying to contain CO2 gas in caverns.
If this process scales, then that would be huge! Like, "why switch to zero-emissions vehicles when it all zeros out" huge! In that situation, hydrogen is doomed and EV's would only have the advantage of higher efficiency and no NOx, SOx, nor soot. Might still win out in passenger vehicle cases, but long-haul trucking and cargo ships might never switch.
 
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What policies? As I've pointed out before nuclear power is fundamentally flawed. Even if the heat source was free it's still gonna cost >$40/MWh to convert that heat into electricity. Why on Earth would you choose to spend $40 to convert 3 MWhs of fission heat into 1 MWh of electricity when you can just get a MWh from wind or photons for ~$20?

We could abolish the NRC and just live with a reactor meltdown every 10 years and nuclear power would STILL be more expensive per kWh than renewables.

When it makes fiscal sense to do something other than throttle renewables then something other than throttling renewables will happen. If it costs $40M to reduce 'throttling' by 10GWh per year with storage, hydrogen or something else but you can increase net wind generation by 40GWh per year even after throttling losses..... wouldn't.... wouldn't you just add more wind? 40 > 10. I expect curtailment to increase significantly as the cost of solar and wind keeps dropping faster than storage, hydrogen or anything else (Except V1G which is effectively free :) )

Economics matters. That's why nuclear has no future and that's why we keep curtailing renewables. Because Economics matters.
Policies, unfavorable drilling policies.
Nuclear cost <4 cent per kWh, based on plant cost no maintenance. Wind and solar cost ~8 to 12 cents per kWh, then you have transmission cost.
 
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Policies, unfavorable drilling policies.
Nuclear cost <4 cent per kWh, based on plant cost no maintenance. Wind and solar cost ~8 to 12 cents per kWh, then you have transmission cost.
You might want to double-check those numbers. The only way you can get those kinds of numbers is if you projected nuclear's life-span to be 60 years and wind and solar's lifespan to be only 15 years (and that's even assuming they're retail prices).
 
You might want to double-check those numbers. The only way you can get those kinds of numbers is if you projected nuclear's life-span to be 60 years and wind and solar's lifespan to be only 15 years (and that's even assuming they're retail prices).
I reported the same figure as nwdiver. Life span 30-40 year for Nuke. Don’t be so afraid of a little radiation, most heeling pools are radioactive.. google it.
If you do 2.50 per watt and 25 year life span with no degradation for age or clipping. No tax credit.

A0A19C12-FC4D-4C83-BCC2-31BBB14D19A9.jpeg
 
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I reported the same figure as nwdiver. Life span 30-40 year for Nuke.
If you do 2.50 per watt and 25 year life span with no degradation for age or clipping. No tax credit.

View attachment 854373

Did you read my post?

What policies? As I've pointed out before nuclear power is fundamentally flawed. Even if the heat source was free it's still gonna cost >$40/MWh to convert that heat into electricity.

~$40/MWh is just the process of converting thermal energy into electrical energy. And where are you getting $2.50/w? Your post is $5,500/kW. That's $5.50/w not $2.50/w. Even that is wildly optimistic. Vogtle is >$15/w.

My point is that nuclear power is fundamentally flawed because the absolute cheapest that thermal generation can be is ~2x the cost of renewables.

I worked in a steam plant for 6 years. It's hideously inefficient. You boil water into steam. That steam has to be 'dried' to prevent impinging turbine blades. Steam is sent through high strength pipes into a turbine. Turbine spins at ~3600RPM. Steam goes into a condenser that is kept at a high vacuum to prevent overheating. Steam is condensed. Cooling of the cooling loop usually consumes ~7 gallons for every kWh produced and you lose 2 kWh to heat for every kWh of electricity. Condensate collects in the hot well and needs to be returned to the feed tank with condensate pumps. Feed tank needs to be deairated and maintained under pressure. Feed water then needs to be pumped into the steam generator at high pressure. All this is hideously expensive compared to just collecting photons or wind or burning natural gas directly in turbine.
 
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I reported the same figure as nwdiver. Life span 30-40 year for Nuke. Don’t be so afraid of a little radiation, most heeling pools are radioactive.. google it.
If you do 2.50 per watt and 25 year life span with no degradation for age or clipping. No tax credit.

View attachment 854373

See nwdiver's reply to you. But as for your source, that source is from an analytics company, not an actual utility company nor the DOE. Go down just a few search results from that post, and you'll find references to the Georgia nuclear plant (aka Vogtle) that's at $34B and still isn't finished yet.
 
Policies, unfavorable drilling policies.
Nuclear cost <4 cent per kWh, based on plant cost no maintenance. Wind and solar cost ~8 to 12 cents per kWh, then you have transmission cost.
The nuclear cost includes funds to decommission the plant at end of life. No such fund exists (AFAIK) for wind and solar farms. Wind farms are a huge mess, with a great deal of non-recyclable materials. Solar is a little better in that regard, but still have significant decommissioning costs. And while a nuclear plant might operate for 50 years or more, industrial solar is good for what, 20-25? In addition, the technology exists to build nuke plants that can "burn" much of our existing stock of waste nuclear fuel.
 
Wind farms are a huge mess, with a great deal of non-recyclable materials.
No. The blades have not been recyclable, although Siemens-Gamesa is now making recyclable blades.

Solar is a little better in that regard, but still have significant decommissioning costs.

Recycling costs are less than $0.10/W.

And while a nuclear plant might operate for 50 years or more, industrial solar is good for what, 20-25? In addition, the technology exists to build nuke plants that can "burn" much of our existing stock of waste nuclear fuel.

And yet despite the longer life, the nuclear plant still works out over twice as expensive at wind, and that's with optimistic accounting.