Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[mspohr]

I'm trying to rectify what I'm hearing from MZJ with this data: Real-time Operating Grid - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

There's a huge fossil gas spike in the middle of the day. I assume "other" on this display is battery storage. If so, then the fossil gas generation bump each mid day is similar to the mid day battery charging valley. This does not line up with the 100% renewable load narrative.

Not asking this snarkily or sarcastically, genuinely trying to understand the data. How is "renewables carrying 100% of load" an accurate statement when fossil gas is still on all day every day, and imports from fossil heavy neighbors occurs every night? Is MZJ using a really twisted definition of "demand"? Is the EIA data fubar?

Part...

For 45 days straight and 69 of 75, California #WindWaterSolar supply has exceeded demand part of each day. On May 20, it was for 7.58 h, peaking at 135.4% of demand

On average over 75 days, WWS>demand for 5.3 h/day

Excess demand goes mostly to batteries & exports

 

[eevee-fan]

Part...

For 45 days straight and 69 of 75, California #WindWaterSolar supply has exceeded demand part of each day. On May 20, it was for 7.58 h, peaking at 135.4% of demand

On average over 75 days, WWS>demand for 5.3 h/day

Excess demand goes mostly to batteries & exports

I don't live in CA but I think Californians would prefer that energy price at that time be highly discounted instead of exported for pennies on the dollar or solar fields shut down.

 

[eevee-fan]

EIA Warns Severe Hurricane Season Could U.S. Disrupt Oil & Gas | OilPrice.com

Up to 25 named storms for this year’s hurricane season could wreak more havoc on the American oil and gas industry than ever before according to the U.S.

oilprice.com

But I am told oil and gas is SOOOO reliable!

Ironic that this problem is caused by the oil and gas industry.

 

[mspohr]

I don't live in CA but I think Californians would prefer that energy price at that time be highly discounted instead of exported for pennies on the dollar or solar fields shut down.

The flip side of this is what they have in Texas where electricity prices spike to thousands of dollars per megawatt during "shortages".
Lots of Californians have time of use plans which have predictable daily price changes which are fixed and not exorbitant.

 

[eevee-fan]

The flip side of this is what they have in Texas where electricity prices spike to thousands of dollars per megawatt during "shortages".
Lots of Californians have time of use plans which have predictable daily price changes which are fixed and not exorbitant.

So better to export for pennies on the dollar than to offer a special promo on days with excess? Makes no sense.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I'm trying to rectify what I'm hearing from MZJ with this data: Real-time Operating Grid - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

There's a huge fossil gas spike in the middle of the day. I assume "other" on this display is battery storage. If so, then the fossil gas generation bump each mid day is similar to the mid day battery charging valley. This does not line up with the 100% renewable load narrative.

Not asking this snarkily or sarcastically, genuinely trying to understand the data. How is "renewables carrying 100% of load" an accurate statement when fossil gas is still on all day every day, and imports from fossil heavy neighbors occurs every night? Is MZJ using a really twisted definition of "demand"? Is the EIA data fubar?

Don't know how to make sense of it, but it's even more intriguing that the natural gas power production exactly inverses the battery storage absorption! bug in the data maybe?

 

[mspohr]

Young Alaskans sue state over fossil fuel project they claim violates their rights

Plaintiffs claim $38.7bn gas export project, which would triple state’s greenhouse gas emissions, infringes constitutional rights

www.theguardian.com

Eight young people are suing the government of Alaska – the nation’s fastest-warming state – claiming a major new fossil fuel project violates their state constitutional rights. The state-owned Alaska Gasline Development Corporation has proposed a $38.7bn gas export project that would roughly triple the state’s greenhouse gas emissions for decades, the lawsuit says. Scientists have long warned that fossil fuel extraction must be swiftly curbed to secure a livable future

 

[mspohr]

Don't know how to make sense of it, but it's even more intriguing that the natural gas power production exactly inverses the battery storage absorption! bug in the data maybe?

It may have something to do with contracts for NG plants requiring purchase of a minimum amount of power to keep them running.

 

[mspohr]

In one of the US’s hottest deserts, utilities push gas rather than solar

In Fort Mohave, Arizona, even Republican voters are fighting gas power plants as utilities try to lock in fossil fuels

www.theguardian.com

However, in late November 2023, the McKeevers found out that the local government, the Mohave county board of supervisors, was about to vote on a zoning proposal for a gas fired peaker plant less than 1,200ft (0.2 miles) from their middle-class neighborhood Sunrise Hills. Peaker plants are designed to fire up to meet spikes in energy demand when people get home from work or during a heatwave. If approved the plant’s jet engine turbines would block the McKeevers’ view of the majestic Black mountains, while spewing carbon dioxide particulate matter, nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides, as well as leaking methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.

Over the next few months, the Sunrise Hills retirees – among them many climate crisis skeptics and committed fossil fuel proponents – uncovered a trail of misinformation that appear to suggest MEC and Aepco, which is developing and will own and operate the gas combustion turbines, were at times opaque as they sought to fast track approval and circumvent closer scrutiny. MEC/Aepco “categorically deny” any effort to intentionally mislead anyone.

The Mohave peaker plant was voted on by the board just weeks after it voted unanimously for a temporary moratorium on renewable energy projects amid claims the county was being blighted by federally funded corporate solar farms to generate green energy for California and Nevada – and that solar would exacerbate current water shortages. While gas-fired plants are more water efficient than coal-fired electricity, they still use much more than solar, which requires virtually no water after construction.

 

[mspohr]

Corporations are forcing Americans to pay more for less – in their own words | Matt Stoller

Companies in the oil, hotel, meat and other sectors are price-gouging the US public. They’re not hiding it, either

www.theguardian.com

Three weeks ago, the Federal Trade Commission released information showing how naïve such statements really were. Sheffield, it turns out, allegedly helped engineer a price-fixing scheme to reduce oil production and increase prices for Americans at the pump. His goal was to end fierce competition in the industry, which had, as he put it, “lowered the price by $20 to $30 per barrel over the past 10 years”. The FTC banned Sheffield from his corporation’s board and has reportedly referred allegations against Sheffield to the Department of Justice for possible criminal investigation.

By contrast, 85% of Americans, along with a few iconoclastic scholars and writers, said “corporations being greedy and raising prices to make record profits” was the cause of inflation. Why? Well it might have been because they noticed that CEOs were routinely telling investors that they were raising prices to increase margins, not to meet wage demands. Or it might have been because they experienced large and unexplained price increases in meat, rent, hotels, groceries and restaurants. Indeed, when the CEO of Wendy’s recently said Wendy’s was considering using AI to engage in dynamic pricing, the public outrage was palpable

 

[fhteagle]

bug in the data maybe?

I could definitely believe that. EIA data has never been the paragon of reliability, and occasionally I catch it spewing out impossible numbers.

It may have something to do with contracts for NG plants requiring purchase of a minimum amount of power to keep them running.

Right, but the smart time to run those is during the evening peak as solar is ramping down. Running NG generation harder midday to charge batteries that have round trip losses doesn't make sense. That's what the EIA data suggests is happening.

Need to see if CAISO has better data on their display...........

 

[eevee-fan]

In one of the US’s hottest deserts, utilities push gas rather than solar

In Fort Mohave, Arizona, even Republican voters are fighting gas power plants as utilities try to lock in fossil fuels

www.theguardian.com

However, in late November 2023, the McKeevers found out that the local government, the Mohave county board of supervisors, was about to vote on a zoning proposal for a gas fired peaker plant less than 1,200ft (0.2 miles) from their middle-class neighborhood Sunrise Hills. Peaker plants are designed to fire up to meet spikes in energy demand when people get home from work or during a heatwave. If approved the plant’s jet engine turbines would block the McKeevers’ view of the majestic Black mountains, while spewing carbon dioxide particulate matter, nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides, as well as leaking methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.

Over the next few months, the Sunrise Hills retirees – among them many climate crisis skeptics and committed fossil fuel proponents – uncovered a trail of misinformation that appear to suggest MEC and Aepco, which is developing and will own and operate the gas combustion turbines, were at times opaque as they sought to fast track approval and circumvent closer scrutiny. MEC/Aepco “categorically deny” any effort to intentionally mislead anyone.

The Mohave peaker plant was voted on by the board just weeks after it voted unanimously for a temporary moratorium on renewable energy projects amid claims the county was being blighted by federally funded corporate solar farms to generate green energy for California and Nevada – and that solar would exacerbate current water shortages. While gas-fired plants are more water efficient than coal-fired electricity, they still use much more than solar, which requires virtually no water after construction.

You can say these retirees became woke to the truth!

 

[Dave EV]

In one of the US’s hottest deserts, utilities push gas rather than solar

In Fort Mohave, Arizona, even Republican voters are fighting gas power plants as utilities try to lock in fossil fuels

www.theguardian.com

However, in late November 2023, the McKeevers found out that the local government, the Mohave county board of supervisors, was about to vote on a zoning proposal for a gas fired peaker plant less than 1,200ft (0.2 miles) from their middle-class neighborhood Sunrise Hills. Peaker plants are designed to fire up to meet spikes in energy demand when people get home from work or during a heatwave. If approved the plant’s jet engine turbines would block the McKeevers’ view of the majestic Black mountains, while spewing carbon dioxide particulate matter, nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides, as well as leaking methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.

Over the next few months, the Sunrise Hills retirees – among them many climate crisis skeptics and committed fossil fuel proponents – uncovered a trail of misinformation that appear to suggest MEC and Aepco, which is developing and will own and operate the gas combustion turbines, were at times opaque as they sought to fast track approval and circumvent closer scrutiny. MEC/Aepco “categorically deny” any effort to intentionally mislead anyone.

The Mohave peaker plant was voted on by the board just weeks after it voted unanimously for a temporary moratorium on renewable energy projects amid claims the county was being blighted by federally funded corporate solar farms to generate green energy for California and Nevada – and that solar would exacerbate current water shortages. While gas-fired plants are more water efficient than coal-fired electricity, they still use much more than solar, which requires virtually no water after construction.

Gas is basically idling right now in California, pushing ~2 GW 24/7. Probably only to provide grid stability. We are VERY close to shutting down gas plants in California right now. Another 5 GW of batteries and we could easily do that.

It would be very nice to figure out what exactly is supplying "Imports" in California, even even those are only topping out around 8 GW. With 40 GW of storage forecasted by BNEF, we are well on our way to decarbonizing the California grid.

 

[eevee-fan]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/23/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-says-he-favors-no-tariffs-on-chinese-evs.html

“I’m in favor of no tariffs and no incentives for electric vehicles, or for oil and gas,” the Tesla CEO said.

I think certain groups watching the interview would be nodding their heads until this last part... LOL

 

[Raffy.Roma]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793471479654621665

India is burning incredibile amounts of coal RIGHT NOW!

This is NOT GOOD!

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793471479654621665

India is burning incredibile amounts of coal RIGHT NOW!

This is NOT GOOD!

What's amazing is that the CO2 chart shows India in dark red, while China (the paragon of conspicuous coal consumption) is "merely" slightly red ... and this from the same guy (Peter D. Carter) who was complaining about how much coal China was consuming. He strikes me as a "complain about all the problems, but don't have a viable solution" type.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

What's amazing is that the CO2 chart shows India in dark red, while China (the paragon of conspicuous coal consumption) is "merely" slightly red ... and this from the same guy (Peter D. Carter) who was complaining about how much coal China was consuming. He strikes me as a "complain about all the problems, but don't have a viable solution" type.

Think that the UN should intervene both with India and China to cut their Coal Consumption. This is the viable solution IMO.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Think that the UN should intervene both with India and China to cut their Coal Consumption. This is the viable solution IMO.

HA! The UN?!?! How exactly would they "intervene"? It's not like China is invading anyone.

Edit: What would be more effective in china, is to shine a spotlight on their coal mine accidents and their death tolls. Then spotlight which manufacturers still rely on coal for their steel or electricity production. Chinese culture is big on "face", which is why they employ a "social credit system". By linking coal-miner deaths to the consumers, it'll raise a red flag that incentives manufacturers to produce renewable electricity or require higher safety standards for their domestic coal (== more expensive) to bolster their social credit. Work within their system, not outside of it.

 

[eevee-fan]

Think that the UN should intervene both with India and China to cut their Coal Consumption. This is the viable solution IMO.

That will never happen because we are dependent on China's coal plants to get our cheap imports. And, the member states don't want inflation in their country. There is a saying "When you point your finger, there are 3 pointing back at you." Try it.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

HA! The UN?!?! How exactly would they "intervene"? It's not like China is invading anyone.

Edit: What would be more effective in china, is to shine a spotlight on their coal mine accidents and their death tolls. Then spotlight which manufacturers still rely on coal for their steel or electricity production. Chinese culture is big on "face", which is why they employ a "social credit system". By linking coal-miner deaths to the consumers, it'll raise a red flag that incentives manufacturers to produce renewable electricity or require higher safety standards for their domestic coal (== more expensive) to bolster their social credit. Work within their system, not outside of it.

Actually you have a better understanding of the Chinese situation than me. Think that your view is good.
Of course the best solution is political not military. I only asked for a UN intervention.

Then the best solution is up to politics.

I am an Engineer not a Politician. I am only concerned about the fact that the current 365-day Global Temperature Deviation is 1.65°C according to Berkeley Earth and has overtaken the threshold of 1.5°C set by the Agreement of Paris.