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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.
- Thread starter nwdiver
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- Energy Environment Policy
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
In 2018 the US consumed ~143B Gallons of gasoline.
(143B gal)(33.4kWh/gal) = 4772 TWh
Electrification reduces energy consumed by ~70%. (4772)(0.3) = 1431.6 TWh
~1430TWh/yr to electrify ALL gasoline powered vehicles.
Total electricity consumption in the US in 2017 was ~4000TWh
Strictly speaking 'load' is demand or power (kW) not energy (kWh). The US has 1.2TW of generation capacity. 1.2TW with a 90% CF would be ~9460TWh/yr. So there's ~4400TWh/yr of spare generation capacity. With smart charging peak 'load' would not need to be increased at all.
And of course this is assuming we don't add any wind or solar before we electrify the fleet...
FUN FACT: From 2017 to 2018 wind generation increased by ~20TWh. The typical EV uses <4MWh/yr. So in 1 year enough wind was added to power an additional 5M EVs. For 2018 and 2019 EV sales in the US will be <1M.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
This sounds ballpark, although it leaves out diesel consumption so the calc (as you later mention) is 'gasoline' powered road vehicles, not all road vehicles.
I'm just being picky here
Ah... I misread the post. Thought it was specific to 'cars'. Very few diesel powered cars.
Probably light trucks like pickups. Lots of miles done by those, fueled by gasoline.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
That is my guess too, along with larger trucks but my point really is that the conversion of passenger vehicles is a number quite a bit smaller than we have been calculating.
> If we replace the entire US fleet of road vehicles with BEVs, it only increases the electrical load by about 10%. They're *that much more efficient than ICEs*. [neroden]
References please!
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That was neroden's quote which I failed to attribute so maybe he can elaborate. This question is often raised by the public ie how BEVs will choke the grid. And properly BEVs of the future will of course include the entire semi fleet. Railroad, aircraft and space launches would likely be excepted. 10% does seem a bit low however.
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References please!
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That was neroden's quote which I failed to attribute so maybe he can elaborate. This question is often raised by the public ie how BEVs will choke the grid. And properly BEVs of the future will of course include the entire semi fleet. Railroad, aircraft and space launches would likely be excepted. 10% does seem a bit low however.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
.... we're clearly adding wind and solar generation MUCH faster than consumption from electrification....
I'll keep harping on this because many people I converse with seem to think nuclear is somehow 'magical'. *Spoiler Alert*... it's not magic. Making electricity from ANY heat source is complicated, expensive and TERRIBLY inefficient.
So this should come as no surprise.... and the hits will keep coming. Stronger and Faster. The clock is ticking for ALL thermal generation which is coal and nuclear.
Solar Costs & Wind Costs So Low They’re Cheaper Than *Existing* Coal & Nuclear — Lazard LCOE Report
So this should come as no surprise.... and the hits will keep coming. Stronger and Faster. The clock is ticking for ALL thermal generation which is coal and nuclear.
Solar Costs & Wind Costs So Low They’re Cheaper Than *Existing* Coal & Nuclear — Lazard LCOE Report
Yes. By "ALL thermal generation which is coal and nuclear" he meant "ALL coal and nuclear thermal generation".
Most natural gas is not used for thermal generation. The largest chunk of generation comes from a gas turbine which is ~50% cheaper per watt with less maintenance.
Thermal generation is Heat source => Liquid => Steam => Steam Turbine => Condenser => Liquid => Feed pump => Heat Source. Terribly Expensive, Terribly Inefficient.
Most Gas is used in a Gas Turbine almost identical to the jet engine of a commercial aircraft. Gas => Turbine => Electricity Simple, Cheap, Efficient. Combined cycle plants sometimes use the waste heat to generate electricity and increase efficiency.
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Dr. J
Active Member
Is geothermal thermal?
Yep. And it's TERRIBLY expensive and TERRIBLY inefficent
Although the efficiency is less important since the fuel is 'free' but that does make it more expensive 
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Global use of coal-fired electricity set for biggest fall this year
The researchers found that China’s coal-fired power generation was flatlining, despite an increase in the number of coal plants being built, because they were running at record low rates.
The US – which is backing out of the Paris agreement – has made the deepest cuts to coal power of any developed country this year by shutting coal plants down in favour of gas power and renewable energy. By the end of August the US had reduced coal by almost 14% over the year compared with the same months in 2018.
However, the authors of the report have warned that despite the record coal power slump the world’s use of coal remained far too high to meet the climate goals of the Paris agreement.
The researchers found that China’s coal-fired power generation was flatlining, despite an increase in the number of coal plants being built, because they were running at record low rates.
The US – which is backing out of the Paris agreement – has made the deepest cuts to coal power of any developed country this year by shutting coal plants down in favour of gas power and renewable energy. By the end of August the US had reduced coal by almost 14% over the year compared with the same months in 2018.
However, the authors of the report have warned that despite the record coal power slump the world’s use of coal remained far too high to meet the climate goals of the Paris agreement.
Shill'n-berger is out with his weekly FUD piece. I'm not providing a link, not gonna spread his nonsense but it does help confirm the accuracy of this venn diagram showing Nuclear and Coal advocates... Yeah, they're pretty much the same people.
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